Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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1. IL-38N is outdated. There is a very good reason India phased them out within a few years after getting P-8. And that's the best part of it, with an inadequate number of them for even one theater. Of which Russia have 4.
Il-38N electronics were modernized.
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Does that look like Soviet era electronics technology to you?

As for how many they have in service, they upgraded 5 as part of the first contract, of which they delivered the last aircraft in 2015, and there were talks of upgrading all 30 by 2025 back in 2017. Back then they upgraded 5 aircraft in 3 years. Dunno what happened since.

2. Russia can't produce even that IL-38N after 2014. As of 2023, still can't - majority of Russian ASW aviation is composed either of good old Il-38s(adequate till early 1980s) or Tu-142s. Both are mostly used for patrols - sub search with them is hopeless.

Those mean that Russia will not get any capable local ASW for ~15 years to come. Planes - and their ASW equipment - take time to appear.
So the point stands, either China or zero.
Except the Russians do have the Il-38N. And they seem to be upgrading the A-50U sanctions or no sanctions. So whatever.
 
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Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
Does that look like Soviet era electronics technology to you?
Scaring someone with LSDs in 2020s may prove difficult. :)

It's been 30 years since the Soviet Union. They aren't 'Soviet' yes - that doesn't make them modern.
They just don't match the level of submarine threat produced since ~1990s onwards. Back in 2000s it still counted for something, as fleet compositions were still different back then. In 2020s it rapidly turns into a challenge to even find something they can work against - and find someone bright enough to specifically send it to you for chivalrous reasons.
And Russia doesn't exactly operate against something, it operates against all the most advanced underwater threats across the world, on all of its theaters.
Dunno what happened since.
Nothing... 2015 was the last year they were delivered - that's what I am talking about.
The net result is as above - export of ASW(but not only) a/c from China rapidly turns from curious though into the only available choice.
Maybe Russian a/c with Chinese search/detection and processing equipment. It will take longer, but the result may potentially be better...provided there is time even for that.
IMHO - Russia since 2022 doesn't have any time, this capability is urgently needed yesterday.
Except the Russians do have the Il-38N
Yes, that's a force less capable than that of ROC(their Orions are roughly comparable). But ROC doesn't have a theater of operations stretching from Iceland to Hawaii.
And they seem to be upgrading the A-50U sanctions or no sanctions
Obvious answer - either A-50U was sanctions-resistant in the first place, or VKS was bothered enough to replace the lacking parts instead of simply stopping the procurement. In reality it was a mix of both.
To be fair, VKS have their own fleet of aircraft they can't get since 2014 (most famously and crucially - Tu-214R), but at least they struggle with really advanced and capable aircraft.
It's...less shameful, I guess?
 

d3dx9

New Member
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I keep reading articles about Taiwan in the western media and it seems there is this strong push by the US and the west to turn Taiwan into a porcupine. The formal term for this is Asymmetric deterrence. The idea is Taiwan should buy loads of air defense missiles and anti-ship missiles. Operationally speaking, Ukraine has shown even if you have overwhelming Air Power, that Russia has, it is still not possible to gain Air dominance if the opponent, which is Ukraine, has very good Air Defense. Ukraine has 200 plus s-300 systems, which is one of the best Air Defense systems out there. Russia has not be able to deal with these air defense systems and Russia Air Force is essentially non existent in the Ukraine War. Russia is doing strikes with Cruise missiles and Drones. This is costly, inefficient and also ineffective since if Russia had total control of the Air Space they could have easily Bombed western shipment of weapons and other supplies just after they cross the border for example.


China faces a similar problem. The problem is the Air Defense Systems can be easily hidden and moved around. Moreover, Anti-Ship Missile Batteries could also be made hidden. So, how would China deal with this Porcupine Strategy without a huge cost in terms Aircrafts getting shot down in order to do SEAD and Ships getting sunk by Anti-Ship missiles?

Is taking the cost the only way to solve the Porcupine strategy? Thus the solution is to build a huge fleet of ships and planes in order to slowly destroy the air defense and anti-ship missiles?

But China is certainly not doing that. They have kept the same Air Force size for the past decades and only focused on replacing older planes with newer planes. They are not building a lot of ships and focusing on large destroyers and carriers. So, what is the strategy here to deal with Taiwan's Porcupine tactic?
First of all, Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine, so these weapons are also more difficult to conceal themselves, which makes them likely not to have the desired effect. Secondly, the Chinese Air Force and Navy are equipped with more advanced training levels than the Russian Air Force and Navy. The annual flying hours of Chinese pilots far exceeds that of Russian pilots. Combining these two points, I think it will be more difficult to replicate the Ukrainian model in Taiwan. Finally, I think the PLA has always regarded the Army as the main force to solve the Taiwan issue. Their request for the Air Force may simply be "don't let Taiwan's military control the skies." As for the navy, judging from the performance in the 2022 exercise, I think their main task in future conflicts is to cover the landing force and blockade the island of Taiwan. China has been preparing for this war for decades. Even if the worst happens, I think they have a way of going to war without adequate air and naval support.
 

BoraTas

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What are people's thoughts on this? I feel @Patchwork_Chimera would argue about these calculations:

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Laughable article. Where is PLAAF, whose aircraft numbers, sortie rates per aircraft, range and payload per aircraft are vastly greater than 3 CVBGs? How Americans are going to defend their strike packages? How they are going to defend 3 CVBGs with 36 aircraft? Where are the DF-26 and DF-17?

My opinion is ignore any naval argument that doesn't factor in land based airpower. It is quite interesting how air superiority is such a cliche term in internet military discussions yet air forces are completely ignored when the topic is naval. Quite sad because maritime strike is where air power truly shine.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Nothing... 2015 was the last year they were delivered - that's what I am talking about.
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"The Ilyushin design bureau and the Russian navy have revealed details of a mission systems upgrade and airframe refurbishment of the Il-38 antisubmarine warfare (ASW) aircraft. At a ceremony on January 31 at Ramenskoye airbase south of Moscow, Russian naval aviation commander Gen. Igor Kozhin said that “about 30” of the 54 Il-38s in the inventory will be modernized, in a program that will continue until 2025.

Nikolai Stolyarov, director for special aviation programs with United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), said Ilyushin and its sister companies Myasischev and Aircraft Repair Plant No.20 have fulfilled "the second defense ministry order for Il-38Ns" (for five and three aircraft, respectively).
...
"This platform has proved itself as very reliable, durable and robust airplane. We hope the Il-38N program would resume...after successful completion of special flight trials that will commence shortly."
...
The Il-38N that was accepted during the January 31 ceremony (RF-755345) was the eighth to be upgraded."

So basically they were still delivering them in 2017. So much for your whole argument. You said three upgraded aircraft and it turns out there are least eight of them. You said they didn't have the capability to make the upgrade after 2014 sanctions and they were still making upgrades in 2017.

Obvious answer - either A-50U was sanctions-resistant in the first place, or VKS was bothered enough to replace the lacking parts instead of simply stopping the procurement. In reality it was a mix of both.
To be fair, VKS have their own fleet of aircraft they can't get since 2014 (most famously and crucially - Tu-214R), but at least they struggle with really advanced and capable aircraft.
Yes, yes. Russia cannot manufacture cruise missiles, because the engines are made in Ukraine, and they cannot manufacture the R-77, because the sensor is made in Ukraine. And they cannot manufacture helicopters because the engines come from Ukraine. They cannot manufacture thermal sights because they come from France. Until they don't and Russia replaces everything with their own components. Just because Russia used to use the international division of labor, i.e. they bought components from abroad with their oil & gas export income, does not mean they cannot make something themselves if they want to.

1679475414560.png

It could not possibly be that the government wants a more modern aircraft or something like that.
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"...
the Tu-204/214 is also available cheaply on the secondhand market. Over 20 such jetliners are stored following their withdrawal from commercial airline service. Another dozen could be assembled by the Tu-214 manufacturing plant in Kazan (KAPO), and that of the Tu-204 in Ulyanovsk (Aviastar), using pre-manufactured parts from their stocks.
...
Last year, the chief of aviation with the Russian navy, General Igor Kozhin, spoke of the need to induct a next-generation ASW aircraft by 2030. The minister for industry and trade, Denis Manturov, responded in August with mention of a special Tu-204/214 version able to meet the given requirement. As a consequence, Tupolev has resumed work on the Tu-204P project, which began in the early 1990s and subsequently experienced several halts and restarts. The design house insists that the jetliner platform offers sufficient range and on-station patrol time, while ensuring good levels of comfort and working conditions for the crew.

In its turn, Beriev points to the Be-200’s and A-40/42’s ability to operate from water, which makes possible operations such as the open-ocean rescue of crews of crippled submarines and surface ships, and the ability to deploy and recover “combat robots”."

The thing is, the whole Western sanctions on civilian aircraft probably put a kibosh on the whole thing since Russia right now probably needs those Tu-214 to replace Western aircraft. I think that is more of an issue than the electronics.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
So basically they were still delivering them in 2017.
If you know how Russian MIC works -January delivery date shall rise suspicions with you.
Yes, it's the mentioned number of aircraft. And not a single new one since then.
p.s. I didn't name 3. I didn't say any numbers before this post at all. :)
That i did say is Taiwanese superiority - and it, as you can see, still stands.
Yes, yes.
So, where are the new Il-38Ns when? The contract, as you mentioned, was for 25.
The state is such that they ultimately had to order the whole new development from scratch.
The thing is, the whole Western sanctions on civilian aircraft probably put a kibosh on the whole thing since Russia right now probably needs those Tu-214 to replace Western aircraft. I think that is more of an issue than the electronics.
While Tu-214s/MS-21 are now indeed an urgent issue - the fact is they are at least being built.
Special versions - MPAs, many kinds of EW/ELINT aircraft - are not. Some aren't since 2014, some aren't since 2015-16(production lag).
And no one really bothered until it was too late - because aircraft aren't needed on some bright day in the future. The clock is already running.
 

tphuang

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Btw, I don't know what happened but people suddenly started to post semiconductor arguments. There is an appropriate thread for that, please post it there.

P-8 arguably isn't even the most capable ASW asset right now - thou it's debatable.

But Russian patrol/asw aircraft are beyond redemption. Just a few inadequate upgraded ASW planes Russia can't produce(IL-38N) anymore due to sanctions - everything else is more towards NK-level floating/flying museums category.
The situation is beyond disastrous... but it isn't unique to planes.

It's certainly fascinating how Russian political/military leadership can invest so much into boomers and advanced SSGNs when they can be literally denied any access to the seas.

Oddly enough, the helicopter situation is better.
From what I hear, KQ-200 is already really capable when operating together in the sensor network that PLAN has for ASW. I would imagine the Y-9 ASW version would be even more capable here.
Well, personal opinion - Russian coastal patrol a/c are neglected to such a degree that it is literally the only option out now - and we will probably see this sooner or later. This is not about pride anymore, there is nothing to save here.

Problem is, Chinese ASW fleet is built for conditions of air superiority. Not sure Russia can really ensure it against its likely opponents.
hmm, it's really hard to have an effective ASW force without air superiority. Do you think the JMSDF can hunt down subs if its P-3Cs can't operate?

I keep reading articles about Taiwan in the western media and it seems there is this strong push by the US and the west to turn Taiwan into a porcupine. The formal term for this is Asymmetric deterrence. The idea is Taiwan should buy loads of air defense missiles and anti-ship missiles. Operationally speaking, Ukraine has shown even if you have overwhelming Air Power, that Russia has, it is still not possible to gain Air dominance if the opponent, which is Ukraine, has very good Air Defense. Ukraine has 200 plus s-300 systems, which is one of the best Air Defense systems out there. Russia has not be able to deal with these air defense systems and Russia Air Force is essentially non existent in the Ukraine War. Russia is doing strikes with Cruise missiles and Drones. This is costly, inefficient and also ineffective since if Russia had total control of the Air Space they could have easily Bombed western shipment of weapons and other supplies just after they cross the border for example.
Porcupine is one of the dumbest things ever. Only stupid politicians can think of something like that. Russians had trouble overcoming Ukraines S-300 because it just simply doesn't have enough fire power and its SEAD capability is really weak. With the fire power & EW advantage that PLA has, it can overwhelm Taiwanese air defense really fast and enforce blockade. This has been discussed many times in this thread. I would recommend you read back on it.
I don't recall ever giving this number as a standalone figure, if at all. This sort of "missiles per salvo per carrier" thinking is also just a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad way of looking at the strike warfare picture.

I won't kill you, but I will let folks know not to pay any mind to your slanderous misattributions!
My bad. I remember you writing on reddit about what strike missions would look like but they then can't find the actual post where you wrote that.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
I don't think the pressure for Russia to operate a capable ASW force is as high as its pressure to operate a deterrence force, so ASW gets neglected. There is basically no scenario where ASW assets would be in use for Russia without going nuclear since they have no chance against the West in a conventional conflict, they probably rationalize that it's better to spend the money on nuclear ballistic submarines and Poseidon esq WMDs to deter a conflict rather than capable ASW platforms which would not be all that useful when the missiles are flying anyways.

On the contrary it makes a lot of sense for PLA to invest in ASW hardware since it's not certain that AR scenario will go nuclear, they will need to contest against some of the most advanced and numerous submarine forces currently employed.

I’m not trying to be stupid, but this looks like a good solution to me:
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In a few years these could be widespread in civilian use, they will come with built in AESA, all you need to do is add an active protection system, if it gets shot down then it’s only a couple, or a few guys lost at worst, because they also come with built in parachutes.
Unless you're sending hundreds of those in at once, I think the concept of a crack team of commandos destroying critical infrastructure is a role that is already superseded by UAV strikes, if the same UAV is loaded with dozens of loitering munitions, I'd imagine it'll be both cheaper and more effective then spending special forces on such a mission.
 
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