Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Gloire_bb · Mar 22, 2023

TK3600 said:
Sounds like Russia could use some non-lethal aids in this regard.

Well, personal opinion - Russian coastal patrol a/c are neglected to such a degree that it is literally the only option out now - and we will probably see this sooner or later. This is not about pride anymore, there is nothing to save here.

Problem is, Chinese ASW fleet is built for conditions of air superiority. Not sure Russia can really ensure it against its likely opponents.

gelgoog · Mar 22, 2023

The reason why current Russian ASW aircraft suck is mostly because of lack of a proper platform. With the implosion of the Soviet Union the engines for the aircraft often ended up in Ukraine for example. And some of the aircraft were produced outside Russia. For example the Il-112 aircraft was produced in Uzbekistan and the Il-20, D-236, D-27 engines ended up in Ukraine.

There have been proposals to use the Tu-214 or Beriev A-40 as ASW platforms.

The Beriev A-40 was supposed to be the replacement for the Il-38. Development was frozen with collapse of the Soviet Union. It is not currently in production and it uses obsolete engines. The Tu-214 is kind of on the large side but it is in production and is already in use for other applications like signals intelligence.

There are multiple other possible airframes they could use like the Irkut MC-21, Sukhoi Superjet, or Beriev Be-200. But those aircraft are currently not 100% localized although there are programs to do this for all three of them right now.

tamsen_ikard · Mar 22, 2023

I keep reading articles about Taiwan in the western media and it seems there is this strong push by the US and the west to turn Taiwan into a porcupine. The formal term for this is Asymmetric deterrence. The idea is Taiwan should buy loads of air defense missiles and anti-ship missiles. Operationally speaking, Ukraine has shown even if you have overwhelming Air Power, that Russia has, it is still not possible to gain Air dominance if the opponent, which is Ukraine, has very good Air Defense. Ukraine has 200 plus s-300 systems, which is one of the best Air Defense systems out there. Russia has not be able to deal with these air defense systems and Russia Air Force is essentially non existent in the Ukraine War. Russia is doing strikes with Cruise missiles and Drones. This is costly, inefficient and also ineffective since if Russia had total control of the Air Space they could have easily Bombed western shipment of weapons and other supplies just after they cross the border for example.

China faces a similar problem. The problem is the Air Defense Systems can be easily hidden and moved around. Moreover, Anti-Ship Missile Batteries could also be made hidden. So, how would China deal with this Porcupine Strategy without a huge cost in terms Aircrafts getting shot down in order to do SEAD and Ships getting sunk by Anti-Ship missiles?

Is taking the cost the only way to solve the Porcupine strategy? Thus the solution is to build a huge fleet of ships and planes in order to slowly destroy the air defense and anti-ship missiles?

But China is certainly not doing that. They have kept the same Air Force size for the past decades and only focused on replacing older planes with newer planes. They are not building a lot of ships and focusing on large destroyers and carriers. So, what is the strategy here to deal with Taiwan's Porcupine tactic?

Gloire_bb · Mar 22, 2023

gelgoog said:
The reason why current Russian ASW aircraft suck is mostly because of lack of a proper platform.

Platform doesn't matter. There are half a dozen of suitable planes, both in service and available off the shelf, or soon available. Literally more than China has at its disposal. Yet somehow PLAN ASW aviation is worlds top-3, and Russian now is...meh. Gauging its position in top doesn't even make sense, since its search capabilities are nil.

The 'small' actual problem is that there is nothing to fill platforms with. Submarine search isn't as much about aircraft, it's mostly about the equipment.
Equipment comes from continuous stream of research/engineering, and production capability. Russia managed to completely fvck up the former, and didn't bother to recover the latter for 10 years since the sanctions hit(last Il-38N just happened to be upgraded exactly then).

For instance, PLAN ASW platforms - planes - are, at best, mediocre. But they carry (and we know it) capable&modern ASW equipment, operate under modern search/attack concept, integrate into a capable upper layer system, and are numerous enough.
And this is important, not that the aircraft themselves are in their core glorified 60 yr-old transport military transports.

gelgoog · Mar 22, 2023

Bollocks. The Il-38N uses modernized electronics.

There are rumors that the Russians will be making a quad engine turboprop to replace the Il-38N with the TV7-117S engine. I think it is a terrible idea when they have other airframes they could use. It is probably just throwing a bone to the airframe manufacturing plant for the Il-112 which has few orders at the moment. But they will have to design a whole new airframe and for what. I doubt the program will be successful if it even gets out of the ground.

Serb · Mar 22, 2023

tamsen_ikard said:
I keep reading articles about Taiwan in the western media and it seems there is this strong push by the US and the west to turn Taiwan into a porcupine. The formal term for this is Asymmetric deterrence. The idea is Taiwan should buy loads of air defense missiles and anti-ship missiles. Operationally speaking, Ukraine has shown even if you have overwhelming Air Power, that Russia has, it is still not possible to gain Air dominance if the opponent, which is Ukraine, has very good Air Defense. Ukraine has 200 plus s-300 systems, which is one of the best Air Defense systems out there. Russia has not be able to deal with these air defense systems and Russia Air Force is essentially non existent in the Ukraine War. Russia is doing strikes with Cruise missiles and Drones. This is costly, inefficient and also ineffective since if Russia had total control of the Air Space they could have easily Bombed western shipment of weapons and other supplies just after they cross the border for example.

China faces a similar problem. The problem is the Air Defense Systems can be easily hidden and moved around. Moreover, Anti-Ship Missile Batteries could also be made hidden. So, how would China deal with this Porcupine Strategy without a huge cost in terms Aircrafts getting shot down in order to do SEAD and Ships getting sunk by Anti-Ship missiles?

Is taking the cost the only way to solve the Porcupine strategy? Thus the solution is to build a huge fleet of ships and planes in order to slowly destroy the air defense and anti-ship missiles?

But China is certainly not doing that. They have kept the same Air Force size for the past decades and only focused on replacing older planes with newer planes. They are not building a lot of ships and focusing on large destroyers and carriers. So, what is the strategy here to deal with Taiwan's Porcupine tactic?

Taiwan gets a joke amount of weapons from the West. What "Porcupine"? They can get what they already paid for years. And now with the situation in the Ukraine, limited Western millitary industry geared toward it, and focusing on land based systems, there is even smaller chance. Western military reserves are also depleted. There is nothing they could send them and they know that.

Taiwan also isn't nowhere near in mentality of Ukrainians, they are themselves prepared for the US to fight for them, no "Porcupine".

Gloire_bb · Mar 22, 2023

gelgoog said:
Bollocks. The Il-38N uses modernized electronics.

1. IL-38N is outdated. There is a very good reason India phased them out within a few years after getting P-8. And that's the best part of it, with an inadequate number of them for even one theater. Of which Russia have 4.
2. Russia can't produce even that IL-38N after 2014. As of 2023, still can't - majority of Russian ASW aviation is composed either of good old Il-38s(adequate till early 1980s) or Tu-142s. Both are mostly used for patrols - sub search with them is hopeless.

gelgoog said:
There are rumors that the Russians will be making a quad engine turboprop to replace the Il-38N with the TV7-117S engine.

Those mean that Russia will not get any capable local ASW for ~15 years to come. Planes - and their ASW equipment - take time to appear.
So the point stands, either China or zero.

tamsen_ikard · Mar 22, 2023

Serb said:
Taiwan gets a joke amount of weapons from the West. What "Porcupine"? They can get what they already paid for years. And now with the situation in the Ukraine, limited Western millitary industry geared toward it, and focusing on land based systems, there is even smaller chance. Western military reserves are also depleted. There is nothing they could send them and they know that.

Taiwan also isn't nowhere near in mentality of Ukrainians, they are themselves prepared for the US to fight for them, no "Porcupine".

Your response doesn't address my question at all. You are just pointing various reasons why Taiwan will fail to achieve the Porcupine strategy due to various reasons like west not being able to supply and so on. So are you saying if Taiwan were able to achieve a porcupine strategy by buying or getting "donated" thousands of missiles from the west, then its over for China. That it cannot win?

If you are a PLA strategist, you will be fired if you say something like this. You need to deal with all scenarios and especially you should never assume your opponent will fail to achieve their own strategy at all. You need to deal with their strategy as if it was completely achieved and still win.

So, if we assume the worst case scenario, which is a Taiwan loaded with Thousands of Missiles and a huge conscript based military, essentially an Asian Israel like citizen conscript army, can China still win and what will it take for China to win. And is it following the right strategy to win such a scenario? is China preparing for it?

Overbom · Mar 22, 2023

tamsen_ikard said:
So, if we assume the worst case scenario, which is a Taiwan loaded with Thousands of Missiles and a huge conscript based military, essentially an Asian Israel like citizen conscript army, can China still win and what will it take for China to win. And is it following the right strategy to win such a scenario? is China preparing for it?

Yes. China can attack civilian infrastructure sending Taiwan back to the Stone Age, and then wait a couple of weeks before they start eating their comrades. No electricity, no fresh water, no oil, no heating, no medical supplies, no food (especially target granaries). That's it

People often portray huge militaries as something impossible to win against. Reality shows otherwise, logistics win wars every day of the week.

FairAndUnbiased · Mar 22, 2023

tamsen_ikard said:
I keep reading articles about Taiwan in the western media and it seems there is this strong push by the US and the west to turn Taiwan into a porcupine. The formal term for this is Asymmetric deterrence. The idea is Taiwan should buy loads of air defense missiles and anti-ship missiles. Operationally speaking, Ukraine has shown even if you have overwhelming Air Power, that Russia has, it is still not possible to gain Air dominance if the opponent, which is Ukraine, has very good Air Defense. Ukraine has 200 plus s-300 systems, which is one of the best Air Defense systems out there. Russia has not be able to deal with these air defense systems and Russia Air Force is essentially non existent in the Ukraine War. Russia is doing strikes with Cruise missiles and Drones. This is costly, inefficient and also ineffective since if Russia had total control of the Air Space they could have easily Bombed western shipment of weapons and other supplies just after they cross the border for example.

I keep reading articles about China in the western media and it seems they think the porcupine strategy for China won't work. I wonder why. The formal term for this is Asymmetric deterrence. The idea is China should buy loads of air defense missiles and anti-ship missiles. Operationally speaking, Ukraine has shown even if you have overwhelming Air Power, that Russia has, it is still not possible to gain Air dominance if the opponent, which is Ukraine, has very good Air Defense. Ukraine has 200 plus s-300 systems, which is one of the best Air Defense systems out there. Russia has not be able to deal with these air defense systems and Russia Air Force is essentially non existent in the Ukraine War. Russia is doing strikes with Cruise missiles and Drones. This is costly, inefficient and also ineffective since if Russia had total control of the Air Space they could have easily Bombed western shipment of weapons and other supplies just after they cross the border for example.

China faces a similar problem. The problem is the Air Defense Systems can be easily hidden and moved around. Moreover, Anti-Ship Missile Batteries could also be made hidden. So, how would China deal with this Porcupine Strategy without a huge cost in terms Aircrafts getting shot down in order to do SEAD and Ships getting sunk by Anti-Ship missiles?

US faces a similar problem. The problem is the Air Defense Systems can be easily hidden and moved around and

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than

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. Moreover, Anti-Ship ballistic and hypersonic missile TELs could also be made hidden. So, how would US deal with this Porcupine Strategy without a huge cost in terms Aircrafts getting shot down in order to do SEAD and Ships getting sunk by Anti-Ship missiles from outside the range of their radars and missiles?

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Is taking the cost the only way to solve the Porcupine strategy? Thus the solution is to build a huge fleet of ships and planes in order to slowly destroy the air defense and anti-ship missiles?

But China is certainly not doing that. They have kept the same Air Force size for the past decades and only focused on replacing older planes with newer planes. They are not building a lot of ships and focusing on large destroyers and carriers. So, what is the strategy here to deal with Taiwan's Porcupine tactic?

Is taking the cost the only way to solve the Porcupine strategy? Thus the solution is to build a huge fleet of ships and planes in order to slowly destroy the air defense and anti-ship missiles?

But US is certainly not doing that.

Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Gloire_bb

Captain

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member

Gloire_bb

Captain

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

Serb

Junior Member

Gloire_bb

Captain

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member

Overbom

Brigadier

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier