China has agreed to a Russian intervention in Ukraine to test Western reactions to the prospect of Taiwan joining the Chinese mainland militarily.
It is therefore worth assessing the outcome of Xi's visit to Moscow, but We should distinguish between China's goals as a country and those of President Xi. The former have the broadest planning horizon, but the latter are limited in time to a maximum of 10-12 years. They are limited by the longevity and ambitions of Chairman Xi. A man who is extremely ambitious and wants to go down in Chinese history as a historical figure equal at least to Mao, Deng Xiaoping or the Chinese emperors who reunified China.
It is from this perspective that one should look at Xi's visit to Russia.
Undoubtedly, it was Xi who was interested in the shortest possible blitzkrieg, blowing up the entire world security system and enabling Beijing to resolve the Taiwan problem quickly. But a protracted war was not in China's plans. Too many additional unknowns and players were appearing in the game. Xi was well aware that against a united West in the event of a protracted war, the Russian Federation could not withstand it. Moreover, in this case its plans for the conquest of Taiwan could be put off to a distant drawer, due to the West's cohesive and consolidated response and absence of the element of surprise.
Russia's defeat in the present means China's defeat in the future. Accordingly, Beijing, represented by Xi, will not provide some kind of military assistance to a country suffering a military defeat. We can say without hesitation that the Russian troops in Ukraine have suffered and are suffering a total military defeat today. It is on this basis that China will not supply a single item of military goods, but will continue to siphon as much as possible of all possible resources from Russia at the lowest possible prices. But that is at the first stage. At the second stage Beijing will be most interested in weakening and political isolation of Moscow. Chairman Xi's goal is extremely simple: if it has failed to bring Taiwan back to its harbor, it will increase Siberia.
Moscow has nothing to offer in exchange to Beijing in the hope of some mythical support in the first place, as a buyer of Russia's natural resources. For political support it will have to pay with political steps. But here again the time factor is important. That is why China is interested in ending the war, but in a way that will allow it to achieve its goals, while getting as much warmth as possible from the war. I do not think that Beijing does not know where Pakistan is supplying ammunition.
The main conclusion is that the Russian Federation will not receive military assistance from China.
Or am I wrong?
