PiSigma
"the engineer"
He has been playing too much Warhammer 3 total war.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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PiSigma
"the engineer"
When he say patriots.. he meant patriotic people with manpads... Of course they are mobile. The problem is does the renegade army have 1000 manpads
Honestly, this is the only way a plan like that would make sense. Something like People's War with FIM-92.
Even if Patriot was a fully mobile system, just google "Taiwan Mountain Roads" or look at a map and it will be obvious how difficult getting a heavy TEL loaded with Patriots onto that kind of terrain. The roads are too narrow and there is no way to travel cross-country/off-road over mountains.
If you were to create fully prepared launch sites scattered through the mountain, it is possible. However, it would have to be done under complete secrecy otherwise there would likely be some intelligence indicating unusual construction in the countryside.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
None of Taiwan's infrastructure in the mountains are designed to handle heavy military loads. All these people wet dreaming about the Taiwan insurgency with 1000 manpads haven't been to Taiwan before or met anyone there.
we basically have the british and the americans building single hull 10m wide pressure hull boats that are roughly the same in stealth performance from what I hear. I'd have a hard time to believe that Astute class is quieter than the latest VA though because I heard that China didn't have much trouble tracking Astute class when CSG21 made their fateful visit to SCS back in 2021. If i was RN, I'd be embarrassed at how badly I was exposed there.
Not from what I hear. The Yasen class boats are probably quiet enough to be comparable to early Virginia class, but I wouldn't say that about any of the other boats they have. Especially not the boomers
Maybe to provide to India? Because I really don't think China needs any help from them.
Again, keep in mind that in the recent 60 minutes report, US commander explicitly said that Chinese nuclear subs are 1 generation behind America. Which really surprised me, because that means the latest 093A (the very last 2) is probably at an early 688i level in noise level or maybe 093B will be there. That's quieter than any Victor III class and comparable to Improved Akula (despite being a whole lot narrower & less space for noise mounting and such)
Not the boomers you say. Borei-A has pump-jet propulsion and streamlined hull. Boomers do not need to travel at as high speeds as attack submarines, so they are typically quieter to begin with. The Yasen-M comes with a propeller because pump-jets are highly inefficient and noisy if they operate at anything but the design speed. So the Russians went with the propeller for what was ostensibly an attack submarine.
The US boomers are 1970s technology and still use propellers.
The US boomers are 1970s technology and still use propellers.
Ukraine only has a "fanatical social foundation" because it has been the victim of Russia/Soviet atrocities. Same case with Poland and Baltic countries, hence the anti-Russia rhetoric from those countries as well. Russia invading Ukraine brings back painful memories. Just imagine if Russia was Japan and Ukraine was China or Korea.
The will to fight between Ukrainians and Taiwanese are lightyears apart. This is not even factoring in that Taiwanese enjoy a high quality of living, so they have much more to lose.
Ukrainians ruled the USSR. Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Gorbachev, all Ukrainians. There were, of course, actual victims of Soviets in Ukraine. Not what most people think though.
Not comparable to China and Japan. There weren't Chinese emperors or ministers of Japan.
Ukraine Galician extremists back in WW2 put the Nazis to shame. They regularly conducted mass slaughters of civilian Jews and Poles in their part of the country. That the current leadership idolizes those people and names streets after them is quite telling.
Virginias aren't terribly different (=technologically superior) from contemporary Astutes(not to a degree that makes them tactically unequal). In fact, Astutes are more traditional, deep water, dedicated hunter-killer subs (mini-seawolf sort of) - and arguably that matters more than the relative US tech advantage.
Virginias'annoyance isn't their direct sub spec quality(they're by default suboptimal) - but their annoying degree of adaptability and all-roundness. They can do almost everything, almost everywhere, and good - and that's a very annoying quality to deal with.
Overall, current stealth performance(by which we mean passive acoustic stealth) for the big 4 sub nations (and China, afaic, is closing the gap faster than it's perceived) is close enough to each other to not bother(mutual detection inequality is measured in hundreds of meters) - unlike aircraft, for subs this approach is an investment of diminishing return(the lesser Db levels, the lower the actual detection range discrepancy.
Furthermore, Sonars relying on external low-frequency 'lightening' sources(not sure the exact English term) don't give much shit about either, large conventionally-shaped subs are to be visible regardless. That's about Astutes (Virginias, Yasens, SSN21s).
Thus, at least within SCS and provided assets are in place, both are quite trackable.
Furthermore, we always have to keep in mind, that while navy and subs is a highly tech-enabled field, technology is the enabler, not an ultimate determinator.
The average level of UK sub captains is considered to be higher than the US ones. And in subs, individual talent does still matter, as on the frigates of old.
IIRC, a couple years ago there was news/outcry that in a mock duel of two Russian boomers, 667BDR(not even BDRM!) captain wiped the floor with the crew of the newest Borei-A. That's an old, classic Reagan era 'loud cow' for you.
Now add Chinese 093/094 boats into their backyard environment and with this example - and things turn significantly. Worse acoustic isn't really a show stopper for Chinese boats - it's more of a chance for AUKUS boats to somewhat level the playing field - at least within the 1st chain and when the said system is undisturbed/unsupressed.
Subs evolve in parallel (their series are long enough) - later Boreys are way quiter than earlier ones, so are Yasens; these boats are build long enough so improvement literally can go boat by boat(Virginia construction cycle is ~6 years, Yasen - ~8-9, - both quite long). And, overall, all of them are within ~comparable silencing brackets; they evolve in parallel.
In fact, in pure sub tracking tracking, Russian boomers are actually more complicated (despite their relatively larger signatures) to track than Yasens, because they're waterjet ships.
Yasens are SSGNs, and due to the very nature of their mission (instead of high average combat speeds, SSGN places premium on quiet stalking and dash speed) - even if they're quieter and much more aware of their surroundings(their sensors are outrageously huge) - tracking them is actually simpler just because of that.
Plus, unlike the boomers, they don't really get help from ASW traps, specifically designed to throw off unwanted 'tails'. SSBNs are a loved wife of the navy, SSNs/SSGNs are to a much, much larger degree left to solve their shit by themselves.
Current/near future state of Russian sub tech is represented by 885M, 885B and Laika respectively.
Given the relatively large amount of both research and construction(in sub procurement it means accumulated experience, and is worth a lot) - i'd frankly argue that Russian input is likely more valuable than British/French ones ... and parts where Russia is weaker just happen to be parts where China really doesn't need too much support.
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