Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Yeah, I just almost straight up have not seen Russia use their tornados tactically like the Ukranians have used HIMARS occasionally. That Weibo post make very good points regarding the poor long range UAV ISR capabilities from the Russians.
But I wonder if having more capable and faster UAV will be sustainable near the front, since they're likely to run into enemy AD, even those sort of jet powered UAV will need to be mass produced ahead of attritional losses which could prove expensive.
Not that many Smerch systems were upgraded to satellite guidance (i.e. Tornado-S). And those which were might not have the relevant satellite guided ammunitions available. The way they have been solving this gap is with either munitions like the Lancet or by using the Iskander when the Lancet isn't enough.
Highly interesting, do you happen to have other sources for the current military discourse in Chinese. Would greatly appreciate it.
Would that be due to E-7s circling in the Black Sea and satellites? I don't think the Ukrainians themselves have vastly superior drone capabilities flying inside Russia.
A lot of Intel from the West is feeding Into the Ukrainian side for sure, but Ukranians themselves have also proven quite resourceful, at least videos of accurate strikes on large groups of moving equipment/infantry is common enough that I can only assume they've managed to have a extremely short kill chain by making use of starlink and phone apps to call in strikes whenever a valuable target is spotted.
China really needs a starlink esq system to maintain high bandwidth communication across huge areas.
Basically they are using the Ukraine model as mentioned many times by the US:
1) More conscription.
It is funny that conscription in TW viewed positively by the West. But not for mainland China. Which is even more ironic, as the PLA is mainly a volunteer force.
2) Using smaller and more portable missile systems like mobile AshM, and SAMs, instead of big ticket items like ships and fighter jets.
They clearly intend fight by trying to bleeding the PLA out, using guerilla tactics. It is actually not a bad idea, but it'll worsen the bloodshed, as this will force the PLA opt for more ruthless tactics. If they actually adopt the Ukrainian model of guerilla warfare, then we should be expecting them to extensively use civilian human shields.
3) Drone warfare. Taiwan is developing some decent looking drones, but most of it are small drones.
They are purposely oblivious that mainland China is already a drone superpower.
4) Information warfare. NHK interviewed some Wanwanese social media warriors who talked about fact checking 'Chinese rumours'.
I looked at some of their computer screens and realized that they are actually just doing propaganda. Such as labeling a real PLAN photo as 'fake'. Or labeling mainland Chinese and Blue faction statements as 'fake'. This is quite pathetic, but will ironically be the Wanwaneses' most powerful weapon in an Armed Reunification, because of powerful boosting by the Western media. It could compel more Taiwanese to sacrifice their lives for a bad cause, like in Ukraine. Or worse, escalate the crisis even more by portraying China as 'weak', and encouraging US and Japanese intervention. China needs to up their information warfare game for this. Heed the lessons of the HK riots, and Covid pandemic. Be more proactive and ruthless with the information war on the enemy.
This is clearly yet another a propaganda piece from the NHK. Taiwan is just not Ukraine. There are so many differing factors. First, it is much easier to blockade Taiwan than Ukraine. Plus, the the average Taiwanese morale for war is much weaker than the average Ukrainians. The Taiwanese have never experienced actual war and hardship in recent memory. They do not yet have the extreme fascist haters, or the battle-hardened veterans. War is hell, so most Taiwanese will find out very quickly, that war with the PLA will be no fun. If the US and Japan directly intervenes, then the war is gonna become so much worse for the Taiwanese. I think it is actually easier to compel the Taiwanese into peace negotiations than the Ukrainians. Whatever we think about the Wanwanese, they are still not comparable to the Ukrainian Nazis in their appetite for bloodshed.
The real question is can the resistance survive the massive tea egg bombardment after the egg shortage?
I haven't really seen that to be honest. Mostly it's just Ukrainian drone teams working in mass drone strike formations (dropping grenades), or working in conjunction artillery/rockets. But all of these are small drones like DJI and derivatives.
I haven't really seen high value Russian targets being destroyed without help of Western ISR, because such targets tend to be deeper into Russian territory where the low-endurance consumer drones are poorly suited for.
Happy to be proven wrong though, just going by what I've seen and I definitely haven't seen everything.
See this thread for deeper explanation of what I meant.
Of all technology offered by the west, starlink is doing some heavy lifting by providing high bandwidth communication across the entire battlespace using minimal/extremely hard to disrupt hardware.
Once recon spots a concentration of units they can simply put the information into software after which nearby artillery units can pick it for a fire mission. This achieves an short kill chain regardless the source of Intel. With drone footage they can also provide live feedback.
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