Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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CMP

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Nah, I doubt that there is a single perfect way of military doctrine to win them all. We all know that offensive war is always bloody. It is actually an conventional wisdom from the ancient time warfare. To mitigate the loss, all military will try a new doctrine that they think more effective, and bring more advantage to their side in a war.

This is the reason why United States often reluctant to bring their army to the battlefield, and prefer to use their air support more. They often choose to use their allies ground forces to do the grinding. That's because ground battle is always bloody. Look at Afghanistan. When US began their military operation to kick Taliban from their throne, in 2001, they used Taliban's enemy as the ground troops; while United States positioned themselves as the air support. They looks glorious, just because it is the Taliban's oppositions who suffer the meat grinding in the war.

I don't think that a conventional division setup can help China better. I think China's current combined armed brigade is better than their old division doctrine. The problem is how to make their army more effective, and working, without throwing their army into a real battle.
The simple answer is large scale industrialization of drone warfare. If you have 10-100 drones for every soldier, then you don't need individual men to occupy trenches and clear settlements/trenches. This is something only China could really be capable of achieving.

In the future, Chinese special forces should be the only people to really see any direct combat. The rest of the anti-personnel warfare belongs to 500-1000$ MSRP drones (cost to manufacture for China being 1/4 to 1/2 that) carrying bombs on hair trigger over trenches and into defended buildings.
 

Sardaukar20

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Now with lessons pertaining to Ukraine in particular

Lesson 1: Tanks are useless and too vulnerable.

Well, think we've all heard arguments and counter arguments to that countless time, so I wouldn't elaborate on this point too much. Tanks as a blunt instrument of breakthrough are indeed quite dead, Infantry Anti-tank weapons have advanced too much and became too common, infantry screens cannot and will not protect tanks against ATGM, this is simply not possible for rifleman to defend tanks against 2 guys hiding in the tree line 2 km away. I believe tanks nowadays can more accurately be described as firesupport platforms, which are obviously still useful.
Fully agreed with Lessons 2 & 3. However I have a different opinion for Lesson 1. I partially agree with it, but I believe that tanks still have a place in the modern battlefield.

The 21st century battlefield is indeed massively lethal for tanks. There are too many weapons out there that can easily destroy an expensive main battle tank. Nevertheless, tanks should not be viewed as just a lone weapon system that can do it all. The Western media have overhyped the tank into mythical status through its over-glorified portrayal of German WWII Panzers, and Western MBTs as superweapons.

The tank, should be viewed in the same value as other fighting vehicles like IFVs, APCs, SPH, and Armoured Cars in a combined-arms group. Any one of those vehicles alone, are almost useless. The tank is always depicted as the centerpiece of an armoured formation, supported by all the other lighter vehicles. However, that is not true. The tank does support the other light vehicles by doing exactly what the other vehicles cannot do, which is to take hits. A tank is usually the priority target for the enemy, so it has the perhaps the most underrated job: To draw enemy fire to itself, away from its softer teammates. And that is actually a protective role. The tank draws a good deal of deadly anti-vehicle fire away from the other softer vehicles like IFVs, APCs, Armoured Cars, etc. If a tank gets hit by AT fire, that would have saved so many other lives in the other softer vehicles. Plus, people have a much higher chance of survival in a knocked-out tank, rather than in a knocked-out APC.

Another important role of the tank is providing direct fire. The main gun of an MBT is one of the most effective, cost-efficient, and feared direct-fire weapon on the battlefield. There are ATGMs and autocannons, but the big-bore high-velocity gun with modern FCS is still an extremely potent weapon. An ATGM costs more to blow up a garrisoned building. An autocannon can only do so much damage. But a tank gun firing cheap HE shells will get the job done with high-effectiveness and low cost. Additionally, a tank gun can provide much greater volume of fire than ATGMs and autocannons. In 10 minutes, a tank gun can put more 105mm - 125mm rounds downrange than missiles from an ATGM launcher. And can rain more destructive firepower than an autocannon. When attacking multiple big targets, a tank gun is the more efficient weapon, when available. Some might argue: but what about assault guns like the Stryker MGS? They too can bring the firepower of big-bore guns to the field, but on a much lighter chassis. Well, that depends on battlefield necessity. An assault gun is ill-suited to take the firing positions that a tank can take, because of its weaker protection. It can only take firing positions that are relatively safe, like hull-down positions. While a tank can risk exposing itself out in the open for a short while to fire a shot. The tank can bet that its own protection can survive at least one hit from the enemy, while an assault gun cannot.

Tanks, when employed in a role as part of a team can do a good job in the modern battlefield. In my view, they are not obsolete yet. The tank gun is still a very relevant weapon today. And the tank's armour allows it to take risks and enemy fire that no other ground vehicle can handle. I am aware of the arrival of the APS that is supposed to render old-fashioned armour obsolete. But as of today, APS is still quite uncommon, and the current, or older generations are still far from providing reliable and effective protection. Until APS is perfected and widely distributed, the good-old tank armour will still maintain its usefulness.
 
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Brainsuker

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The simple answer is large scale industrialization of drone warfare. If you have 10-100 drones for every soldier, then you don't need individual men to occupy trenches and clear settlements/trenches. This is something only China could really be capable of achieving.

In the future, Chinese special forces should be the only people to really see any direct combat. The rest of the anti-personnel warfare belongs to 500-1000$ MSRP drones (cost to manufacture for China being 1/4 to 1/2 that) carrying bombs on hair trigger over trenches and into defended buildings.

There are a lot of question that left in every military organization in this world about what will work, and what is not. We don't know what is the most effective way to defeat such an adversary. It is unfair to say that Russia is over-estimating their own, and underestimating Ukraine. Because just like the US President in world war 2, there is no preparation that can prepare the army to face a war.
 

Brainsuker

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I've noticed that during Russian offensives, despite the overwhelming preparatory artillery fire, Ukrainian defenders have not been suppressed, much less destroyed.(It's a good, relatively unbiased channel, it tell of both success and failures of Russian forces in equal measures)

It's easy to miss, but the video mentioned underground bunkers and positions. Which I believe might be the most under appreciate part of the war(or any war in general) and would explain the mystifying ability for Ukrainian positions to survive artillery barrages.

It reminds me alot of the Korean War, the Anglo Coalition forces have an absolute superiority in long range firepower yet was unable to push even an inch once the front stabilised because of the extensive overground fortification and underground shelters/tunnels.

PVA soldiers would descend into their underground fortifications during bombardments and then emerge to stop the Anglo coalition dead in their tracks. IE: Battle of Shanggangling/Triangle Hill

I hope the PLA have not neglected the tradition of building earthworks. Those with firepower superiority have a tendency of overestimating their effects, when in reality, it usually produced less than the desired result. Desert Storm/Iraqi Freedumb are the few instances where fire superiority have produced the desired result.

So, if you're the Russian commander who lead to attack Soledar, what will you do? Or maybe, if the attacker is not Russian, but a PLA Marine Brigade, or a PLA Combined Arm Brigade, what should they do? The entrenched warfare in Soledar is indeed a hard puzzle to solve. I'm not sure even if it's US 101st Airborne Division or US Marine Corps will have a better result than the Russian.
 

Surpluswarrior

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The 21st century battlefield is indeed massively lethal for tanks. There are too many weapons out there that can easily destroy an expensive main battle tank. Nevertheless, tanks should not be viewed as just a lone weapon system that can do it all. The Western media have overhyped the tank into mythical status through its over-glorified portrayal of German WWII Panzers, and Western MBTs as superweapons.

The tank, should be viewed in the same value as other fighting vehicles like IFVs, APCs, SPH, and Armoured Cars in a combined-arms group.

I agree.

One of the less-biased conclusions from Western analysts observing this conflict is that there is a definite role for the tank on the modern battlefield. If all the tanks disappeared from the battlefield in an instant, the two armies would suddenly find themselves needing a category of vehicle we describe as "tank."

Most of the tanks in this war are not fully modern. There are cutting edge designs on the verge of deployment. Failures to modernize or properly deploy tanks does not mean their obsolescence. They won't have the mythical role attributed to them in WWII movies, but there is a need for a mobile, protected vehicle to carry out certain tasks on the battlefield.
 

tankphobia

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So, if you're the Russian commander who lead to attack Soledar, what will you do? Or maybe, if the attacker is not Russian, but a PLA Marine Brigade, or a PLA Combined Arm Brigade, what should they do? The entrenched warfare in Soledar is indeed a hard puzzle to solve. I'm not sure even if it's US 101st Airborne Division or US Marine Corps will have a better result than the Russian.
Both the PLA and the US should have a much better time here due to superior ISR capabilities. The US will just use their air superiority to drop a few JDAMs to clear out the trenches, while the PLA should make use of their guided rocket artillery to perform the same function. They do not need to rely on helicopter tossing rockets and grad batteries.
 

gelgoog

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Most of the tanks in this war are not fully modern. There are cutting edge designs on the verge of deployment. Failures to modernize or properly deploy tanks does not mean their obsolescence. They won't have the mythical role attributed to them in WWII movies, but there is a need for a mobile, protected vehicle to carry out certain tasks on the battlefield.
The major issue the tanks in the conflict have is that they lack working APS. But even then tanks like the T-72B3M proved pretty resilient. It takes several ATGMs to take one down. Even back in WWII tanks were pretty vulnerable. You have to remember that back then after they invented HEAT pretty much all tanks in service until the end of the war lacked protection against it. And portable anti-tank weapons like the Panzerfaust were already available back then in the late war.
 
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tphuang

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俄罗斯军队还是严重缺乏现代化的作战武器,尽管俄军刚刚也装备自行研制的新一代“龙卷风”精确制导火箭炮,射程为120公里,使用惯性+格洛纳斯制导,但装备数量极少。

俄军比较需要中国军队的更好的远程火箭炮,例如画面里的情景,我军远火在西北高原的打靶,简直如同一支射程150~250公里的狙击步枪,可以挨个点名了。

很多人以为远程火箭炮简单地换上精确制导火箭弹,就能大杀四方,其实这是误解。要想实现远程精确打击,光有精确制导火箭弹还不行,还需要整个作战体系的提升。

举个小例子,早期的那种俄罗斯龙卷风和中国03式300毫米远火,标准射程是70公里。在目标侦察和指示时,

我军主要依靠JWP-02、BZK-006等螺旋桨推进式的300公斤级小型无人机,巡航速度为140公里/时,飞行70公里,半小时就可实现。但新型火箭炮射程增至150~250公里以后,现役无人机需要飞行一个多小时到2个小时,这样就太耽误作战了。

因此我军已经换装了新一代的高速无人机,起飞重量500公斤,配备了喷气发动机,最大速度有800公里/小时,可实时获取350公里半径内的有效目标,能够打击300公里射程上的时间敏感目标。

俄军比较悲催,目前主要使用海鹰-10无人机,重量不足20公斤,飞行速度大约90公里/小时,飞到70公里的位置需要耗时45分钟,飞行到120公里时需要近一个半小时。这对于时间敏感的炮兵作战很不利。

所以,俄军要想实现比较给力的远火作战,需要整个炮兵体系的换装,这样一来就涉及了预算问题。

一切又回到了原点,没钱你跟我说个茄子远火作战?
This is from科罗廖夫's weibo

Some good points here on the long range rocket system. Russians don't have enough of the 120km range ones whereas China has it everywhere.

More than that, targeting is a big issue. As the target is further away, you need UAVs to fly further to provide targeting info for your rocket system. The old system with 140 km/hr speed is too slow for targets 200 km away. You need new high speed ISR drones for this. Actually, I'm not sure what he is referring to here with drones flying at 800 km/hr. Is he thinking of WZ-7 in this role? I've only seen BZK005 & CH-4 if i remember correctly. They certain will have much better sensors than what you get with Orlan. I'm just not sure where he got the 800 km/hr from.
 

Sinnavuuty

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Studying Ukraine war, China's military minds fret over US missiles, Starlink​

China needs the capability to shoot down low-earth-orbit
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satellites and defend tanks and helicopters against shoulder-fired Javelin missiles, according to Chinese military researchers who are studying Russia's struggles in Ukraine in planning for possible conflict with U.S.-led forces in Asia.
 

vincent

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This is from科罗廖夫's weibo

Some good points here on the long range rocket system. Russians don't have enough of the 120km range ones whereas China has it everywhere.

More than that, targeting is a big issue. As the target is further away, you need UAVs to fly further to provide targeting info for your rocket system. The old system with 140 km/hr speed is too slow for targets 200 km away. You need new high speed ISR drones for this. Actually, I'm not sure what he is referring to here with drones flying at 800 km/hr. Is he thinking of WZ-7 in this role? I've only seen BZK005 & CH-4 if i remember correctly. They certain will have much better sensors than what you get with Orlan. I'm just not sure where he got the 800 km/hr from.
He said PLA uses a jet-powered UAV that weights 500kg and has top speed of 800km/hr.
 
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