This is a great take. Anyways, what do you think is the chance for US and Japan to interfere against the blockade? I would say 100% US, and 50% Japan.
I just really don't know. But looking at the US war mongers, I think that they would view this as their opportunity to finally do something to bring China down. If the US acts, the current Japanese Nippon Kaigi government will follow. The Japanese people might not agree, but we cannot assume that they can stop their govt.
What I think the Americans might want to do first is to not directly shoot at China, but to lead a sizable naval force with multiple allies to confront China. A show of strength to compel it to open it's blockade of Taiwan. They'll try to test China's resolve first. See if China would shoot at any supply vessel coming to dock at Taiwan. Kinda like a reverse Cuban missile crisis. They will want China to fire the first shot at them.
Or maybe the US and Japan might just want to pull off a Pearl Harbour style surprise attack on the PLAN.
Whatever they want to do, there is time for China to see their naval force building up near it's waters.
Whatever China wants to do, it must take the initiative. Get the enemy react, not react to the enemy. Take control and dictate the battlefield to the enemy. During the early stages of the Trade war, HK riots, and Covid, China was reacting to US moves. Instead, China should follow the example of how it moved against India at Aksai Chin in 2020.
