Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Serb

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tankphobia said:
Belt and road projects will still allow some trade through central Asia/Russia, but the lions share of trade are maritime so no, I do not believe there's much that can be done from the Chinese side if they pursue that strategy, but at the same time it's a kamikaze strategy that will bring worldwide economy tumbling down.
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That kind of blockade would hurt them more than China no matter how you look at it, it is a certain Stone Age economy for the US.

For natural resources and food security, China already has its own reserves, Russia, Central Asia, and those SE Asian countries with shared land borders below.

This is the best-case scenario for China.

I just hope that China will be smart and not let selective shipments of goods, they should stop exporting ALL goods to the US in that case.

They will then autodestruct themselves, Americans have no unity like China.

Once they experience such historical hyperinflation where there is no more Chinese goods on their shelves.

US economy is 70% consumption and most of that is Chinese goods or goods with Chinese parts.

It would also hurt China, but China is 10 times more united than the US, in all kinds of ways and statistics imaginable.

The US already routinely experiences civil unrest, and if they get such 500% per month hyperinflation, there would be a civil war this time.

China will experience economic depression in GDP terms, however, China is 100 times more united racially, ethnically, ideologically, and politically, they don't have 50 States, most civilian arms on the planet, hate for one another, hate for their government, the sentiment of secession, like citizens of the US, etc.

And once the US disintegrates, in a few months, China can continue trading with the rest of the world.

Even if they beg China to continue shipments then, China shouldn't do that until they see that the US collapsed.

They would collapse in multiple blocks because some states wouldn't want that kind of garbage hyperinflation currency like the dollar and will leave to print their new currencies. The US is a dying empire already today even without that kind of historical war. It would be the biggest slap.
 
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Biscuits

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tankphobia said:
I don't think it can be said that China and the US can 'win' right now if conflict were to break out, they will both just not lose so I don't think conventionally superiority means much in this context if it cannot guarantee victory.
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It'd come down to long term grind of who can produce more weapons and develop new ones faster.

However that is only assuming US commits 100% to an invasion, with its whole navy, air force and backed by ground troops.

I don't think there is any doubt that if America were to emulate the Russians in terms of launching only a limited special operation, whether in Taiwan or even just in the SCS, their defeat, if not even a swift and terribly lopsided defeat, is guaranteed.

tankphobia said:
Is the PLA really conventionally superior though? In some domains (AD, MLRS, BM), sure. But in other domains (airforce, force projection, submarines) the West and its allies are still equal if not superior. I foresee as they catch up in equipment the West might begin moving to a blockade strategy rather than risk confronting PLA in its home turf, blocking commercial shipping through strait of Malacca in an attempt to economically strangle China, in which the AUKUS submarines will come in handy.

Belt and road projects will still allow some trade through central Asia/Russia, but the lions share of trade are maritime so no, I do not believe there's much that can be done from the Chinese side if they pursue that strategy, but at the same time it's a kamikaze strategy that will bring worldwide economy tumbling down.
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Blockade strategies will not work, not only due to Chinese wartime self sufficiency but also because the ranges where a blockade would have to be conducted is so large that it would effectively be a surrender in all Asia.

If Malacca is the closest America can go and they draw a line there, then Japan, Korea, Phillippines, all fall to China. Whatever China loses from decreased maritime trade with Europe/Africa, they'll win back if necessary by stripping down Asia.

The only way I see US winning is decisive battle where they can use their big ship/aircraft number advantage into a set piece battle with most of the PLAN, win, make groundfall using enough troops to create a fait accompli, and then sue for peace. Prolonged conflict won't favor them, even in the most optimistic of estimates.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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tankphobia said:
Is the PLA really conventionally superior though? In some domains (AD, MLRS, BM), sure. But in other domains (airforce, force projection, submarines) the West and its allies are still equal if not superior. I foresee as they catch up in equipment the West might begin moving to a blockade strategy rather than risk confronting PLA in its home turf, blocking commercial shipping through strait of Malacca in an attempt to economically strangle China, in which the AUKUS submarines will come in handy.

Belt and road projects will still allow some trade through central Asia/Russia, but the lions share of trade are maritime so no, I do not believe there's much that can be done from the Chinese side if they pursue that strategy, but at the same time it's a kamikaze strategy that will bring worldwide economy tumbling down.
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How to blockade Malacca? Sit at a narrow choke point making it ez pz to localize hostile fleets? Maybe do it in shallow waters without room for vertical maneuver?

Even if success, what next? China is an oil producer and connected by pipeline to Russia, what about South Korea and Japan who have 0 domestic oil and import grain? If they sacrifice them, what stops South Korea and Japan from flipping once it's clear they're the sacrificial pieces?
 
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HighGround

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FairAndUnbiased said:
Even if success, what next? China is an oil producer and connected by pipeline to Russia, what about South Korea and Japan who have 0 domestic oil and import grain? If they sacrifice them, what stops South Korea and Japan from flipping once it's clear they're the sacrificial pieces?
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What makes you think they won't honorably sacrifice themselves for United States? Ukraine is certainly willing to do it.
 
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Serb

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HighGround said:
What makes you think they won't honorably sacrifice themselves for United States? Ukraine is certainly willing to do it.
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Ukraine is sacrificing itself not because of the US, but because they are crazed Nazis. They are doing it for ideology and themselves.

The US doesn't want a prolonged war in Ukraine, with China who benefits, because Taiwan is way more important to them.

They want to end that war now, however, they can't because Ukrainians are unrealistic Nazis who want to reclaim everything till the Crimea.

The US wanted to quickly take down Russia, as the most significant helper of China, with economic sanctions and social unrest, before they took on China.

However, they didn't want a prolonged war against Russia. So, they are now looking for a way out now, but the Ukrainians won't hear about it.
 
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Biscuits

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HighGround said:
What makes you think they won't honorably sacrifice themselves for United States? Ukraine is certainly willing to do it.
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It's not as if they'll be willing to sacrifice or not, its that if they attack, fail and get overrun by China, their contents are worth a lot.

Asia is more or less the economic/tech center of the world, and sacrificing American held Asia in an attempt to create some sort of continental blockade that would see the US forces to spread out so thin it is basically as impossible as blockading all of Europe, is a move that is akin to losing before even playing.
 
solarz

solarz

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Sardaukar20 said:
Pathetic propaganda piece from NHK describing how Taiwanese rebels aims to use asymmetric warfare on the PLA. The reporter even got the date of the Battle of Kinmen wrong.

Basically they are using the Ukraine model as mentioned many times by the US:

1) More conscription.

It is funny that conscription in TW viewed positively by the West. But not for mainland China. Which is even more ironic, as the PLA is mainly a volunteer force.

2) Using smaller and more portable missile systems like mobile AshM, and SAMs, instead of big ticket items like ships and fighter jets.

They clearly intend fight by trying to bleeding the PLA out, using guerilla tactics. It is actually not a bad idea, but it'll worsen the bloodshed, as this will force the PLA opt for more ruthless tactics. If they actually adopt the Ukrainian model of guerilla warfare, then we should be expecting them to extensively use civilian human shields.

3) Drone warfare. Taiwan is developing some decent looking drones, but most of it are small drones.

They are purposely oblivious that mainland China is already a drone superpower.

4) Information warfare. NHK interviewed some Wanwanese social media warriors who talked about fact checking 'Chinese rumours'.

I looked at some of their computer screens and realized that they are actually just doing propaganda. Such as labeling a real PLAN photo as 'fake'. Or labeling mainland Chinese and Blue faction statements as 'fake'. This is quite pathetic, but will ironically be the Wanwaneses' most powerful weapon in an Armed Reunification, because of powerful boosting by the Western media. It could compel more Taiwanese to sacrifice their lives for a bad cause, like in Ukraine. Or worse, escalate the crisis even more by portraying China as 'weak', and encouraging US and Japanese intervention. China needs to up their information warfare game for this. Heed the lessons of the HK riots, and Covid pandemic. Be more proactive and ruthless with the information war on the enemy.

This is clearly yet another a propaganda piece from the NHK. Taiwan is just not Ukraine. There are so many differing factors. First, it is much easier to blockade Taiwan than Ukraine. Plus, the the average Taiwanese morale for war is much weaker than the average Ukrainians. The Taiwanese have never experienced actual war and hardship in recent memory. They do not yet have the extreme fascist haters, or the battle-hardened veterans. War is hell, so most Taiwanese will find out very quickly, that war with the PLA will be no fun. If the US and Japan directly intervenes, then the war is gonna become so much worse for the Taiwanese. I think it is actually easier to compel the Taiwanese into peace negotiations than the Ukrainians. Whatever we think about the Wanwanese, they are still not comparable to the Ukrainian Nazis in their appetite for bloodshed.
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I hope TW adopts this kind of policy, because this is exactly the wrong lesson the West can learn from Ukraine, and reinforced by two decades of conditioning in Iraq and Afghanistan.

To put it simply, TW does not have the capability to mount an asymmetric defense against the PLA. Those who support independence are convinced either the US will come to their rescue in the event of an invasion, or that "international pressure" will prevent an invasion in the first place. Those who actually have military training either understand that the ROCAF stands no chance against the PLA, or are opposed to independence in the first place.

Furthermore, it's clear that the PLA has no need to fight a counter-insurgency war in Taiwan, when they could simply blockade the island and bombard it until it surrenders.
 
tankphobia

tankphobia

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Registered Member
Biscuits said:
It'd come down to long term grind of who can produce more weapons and develop new ones faster.

However that is only assuming US commits 100% to an invasion, with its whole navy, air force and backed by ground troops.

I don't think there is any doubt that if America were to emulate the Russians in terms of launching only a limited special operation, whether in Taiwan or even just in the SCS, their defeat, if not even a swift and terribly lopsided defeat, is guaranteed.
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With current posturing and even giving of nuclear sub technology to Australia, it seems that US is prepared to go all the way.


Biscuits said:
Blockade strategies will not work, not only due to Chinese wartime self sufficiency but also because the ranges where a blockade would have to be conducted is so large that it would effectively be a surrender in all Asia.

If Malacca is the closest America can go and they draw a line there, then Japan, Korea, Phillippines, all fall to China. Whatever China loses from decreased maritime trade with Europe/Africa, they'll win back if necessary by stripping down Asia.

The only way I see US winning is decisive battle where they can use their big ship/aircraft number advantage into a set piece battle with most of the PLAN, win, make groundfall using enough troops to create a fait accompli, and then sue for peace. Prolonged conflict won't favor them, even in the most optimistic of estimates.
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Whether it is in Malacca or somewhere closer, it'll be in the US's interest to force China into a pitched naval battle away from home, I don't think a US marine landing would factor into this, since China would've lost long ago if the US were able to make landfall in Taiwan.

I disagree with the notion that a long war is bad for the US, even in the current Ukraine conflict the US is making a killing selling energy to its allies, I'd imagine when current tension goes further, the West will begin seriously considering decoupling that is not a half hearted attempt to placate the voters, that's when China should become seriously concerned.
 
S

Serb

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tankphobia said:
I disagree with the notion that a long war is bad for the US, even in the current Ukraine conflict the US is making a killing selling energy to its allies, I'd imagine when current tension goes further, the West will begin seriously considering decoupling that is not a half hearted attempt to placate the voters, that's when China should become seriously concerned.
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Are you kidding? In the current Ukraine war, the Collective West, not just the US, can't outproduce Russia which has "a GDP the size of Italy's".

Then how are they supposed to outproduce China which has about 10 times the GDP? I talk in terms of military equipment.

Even the whole Collective West combined probably can't outproduce China now, it's more like a 10 to 1 advantage to the Chinese side, not to mention one small US which has an economy 70% consumption of mostly foreign-made goods and no real industry. They are a complete joke.
 
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