Ask US thinktank. It's one of their wargame scenario.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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Do you think the ROC can win the hearts and mind of the people to conduct Guerrilla war? If the ROC could use Guerrilla tactics do you think they'd be stuck on Taiwan island right now?
By your logic CPC can land a group of volunteers on that island and also start a Guerrilla war, have you considered that? The CPC beat the ROC using Guerrilla war, you don't think they can do it again? If China asked, all the Chinese fishermen would dock at Taiwan and the reunification would be over in a few months.
By your logic CPC can land a group of volunteers on that island and also start a Guerrilla war, have you considered that? The CPC beat the ROC using Guerrilla war, you don't think they can do it again? If China asked, all the Chinese fishermen would dock at Taiwan and the reunification would be over in a few months.
Would that explain the many friendly fire stories we hear about in the Ukrainian-Russo war threads?
Technology did change war somewhat given the amount of realtime or close to realtime surveillance and intelligence gathering thats now possible. Seems war has become a poker game where each player can see each other hands.
How big would that no-fly zone be?
Then there are the islands of Yonaguni and Itbayat. Yonaguni under Japanese control is a mere 120 kilometers east of Taiwan, while Itbayat under Filipino control is a mere 160 kilometers south of Taiwan.
There is no way China could prevent American AEW&C, SIGINT and ELINT aircrafts from circling above those islands (which are the closest that they could ever get to Taiwan apart from the Philippine Sea) without dragging Japan and the Philippines into the war, if either/both countries have no intention to/can be pursuaded not to be involved.
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If US isn't fighting and with most of its power at once, they won't be able to threaten Taiwan.
China would first take out the rebels and what would 2 aircraft circling predictable locations do?
This plan for USA is even worse than Russian special operation with only 200k men. Special operation with a handful of AEW planes = get defeated with zero difficulty because the separatists get rolled in hours and then your planes are doing completely nothing.
Yeah, ROC did it long time ago, after they got beaten by PRC in 1949. The Kuomintang remnants conducted guerrilla warfare in China mainland for some time. But guess what. What could they expect to use the same method of warfare to fight against the one who invented it?
But first thing first, when we talk about this ROC conducted guerrilla warfare at the southern part of Taiwan, we have to see it from the US perspective. And not ours. why they thought that ROC could halt the PLA invasion with guerrilla warfare? If my memory serve right, their war game was posted in this forum long time ago. They may effective or not. But in their point of view, it will work.
In that American wargame, they simulated a war between US and their allies, versus China and Russia. And the initial battlefield are in Ukraine and Taiwan. In that wargame, they won. I'm sure that some posters here remember that wargame. That news came long before Russia invaded Ukraine.
The objective of this ROC guerrilla warfare was to lock PLA in Taiwan long enough to let US and their allies prepared and pool their military power to fight against China.
I start to think that the reason why US incited Ukraine war and then Taiwan, based on this wargame scenario.
Now, if you think that it won't work, let me tell you. This is not my logic, or my thought. I just use one of American published wargame to give us some cases to discuss. Don't say about do you think or do you troll to me.
Taiwan doesn't have the strategic depth of Ukraine. They have 3 days of energy reserves and 30 of food if nothing is destroyed. If things are destroyed then its 0. Taiwanese population will suffer starvation, thirst and mass disease within days when the power goes out and there's no air conditioning, water treatment, sewage treatment, refrigeration, etc. Then the decision must be made to either supply field troops and let civilians die (and risk a revolution/surrender) or supply civilians and move field troops out of deployment areas.
This is just the air war and blockade, no troops have landed yet.
I always like your thought, FairAndUnbiased. Not only in here, but in our neighbor forum. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.
But then, Western allies will call for human right and bring food supply to Taiwan via UN. If China halt their food convoy, not only western allies, but many other nations will condemn China as the enemy of human rights. Remember Ukraine. They had this kind of problem at the beginning of the war. But then many nations, via UN send relieved food to Ukraine. And that's including China.
I, myself also thinking about how China can get away from this matter.
I start to think that this relieved food in Ukraine was also one of Western stratagem to sent their logistic and military supplies to Ukraine. If they can hide the weapon among humanitarian help, then Russia can't do nothing to stop those cargos.
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I certainly hope you're capable of understanding that everything the US writes should be understood with at least a grain of salt to say the least.
American simulations are subject to severe political control, so while they can provide a little bit of insight on their thinking, it should always be seen through the lens that it is not allowed to speak of defeat in America.
When things go poorly in simulations, parameters are often changed, like arbitrarily restricting the OPFOR to only using the Eastern theater command despite ostentibly China being under an all out invasion on a scale not seen since ww2.
Russia also seem to have expected to win the war against Ukraine quite fast in their simulations, yet looking at simulations from 1 side will only ever give you half of the picture at most.
What kind of guerilla warfare would ROC forces do against PLA when there is complete strike coverage 24/7? Besides, Beijing doesn't need to immediately hold the whole island, just sitting first with artillery/airpower from E. Fujian and then moving into N. Taiwan to continue shelling any eventual KMT strongholds in the south (even if its dubious that such strongholds could actually materialize), China can sit in the North for awhile, grinding down KMT while building fortresses in the North to step up defenses against US.
It is a matter of matching strike platforms to targets, and the power balance between PLA and KMT units look even worst than AFU vs LDPR units. For once, PLA can actually shell cities for massive damage and not single digit casualties.
As much as the Kiev/Sumy offensive was criticized by many on both sides, something like that might be the only way US can get ground against all the combined forces of China (not just ETC).
America needs to, on day 1, do a grand and unrealistically ambitious offensive, pull the attention of all the PLA forces, lose as little as possible while beating an organized retreat, while US forces do the equivalent of the Russian capture of the land bridge in the Taiwan area, establishing controls over islands, send in as many troops and equipment as they physically can and so on.
That way, it will be US with minor KMT backup vs China on Chinese soil, which is odds that are contestable for US at least, vs just letting the rebels get annihilated first and then queuing up to get shot at in no man's land while trying to storm beaches.
Ukraine geopgraphy is very different from Taiwan. That's why the plan for guerrilla warfare will not be as effective as in Vietnam or Afghanistan. It's an island with limited terrain for maneuver. Supplied is very hard to maintain and probably can only send in small batch. Sure, they can disguised it in form of humanitarian aid but unless PLA is a total buffoon, only small firearms might be able to get through.
You will not see modern tank or fighter jet supplied that's for sure.
Will this make PLA weaken? yes, but I doubt it will be well enough to pave the way for USMC/Navy to perform their landing on Taiwan or mainland with casulties rate that are acceptable by their citizens.
Therefore, the real issues is not capabilities of PLA to deal ROC conventional or guerrilla warfare. It's how much they willing to get hard and get real on actual conflict.
You will not see modern tank or fighter jet supplied that's for sure.
Will this make PLA weaken? yes, but I doubt it will be well enough to pave the way for USMC/Navy to perform their landing on Taiwan or mainland with casulties rate that are acceptable by their citizens.
Therefore, the real issues is not capabilities of PLA to deal ROC conventional or guerrilla warfare. It's how much they willing to get hard and get real on actual conflict.
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