Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Brainsuker

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Biscuits said:
I certainly hope you're capable of understanding that everything the US writes should be understood with at least a grain of salt to say the least.

American simulations are subject to severe political control, so while they can provide a little bit of insight on their thinking, it should always be seen through the lens that it is not allowed to speak of defeat in America.

When things go poorly in simulations, parameters are often changed, like arbitrarily restricting the OPFOR to only using the Eastern theater command despite ostentibly China being under an all out invasion on a scale not seen since ww2.

Russia also seem to have expected to win the war against Ukraine quite fast in their simulations, yet looking at simulations from 1 side will only ever give you half of the picture at most.

What kind of guerilla warfare would ROC forces do against PLA when there is complete strike coverage 24/7? Besides, Beijing doesn't need to immediately hold the whole island, just sitting first with artillery/airpower from E. Fujian and then moving into N. Taiwan to continue shelling any eventual KMT strongholds in the south (even if its dubious that such strongholds could actually materialize), China can sit in the North for awhile, grinding down KMT while building fortresses in the North to step up defenses against US.

It is a matter of matching strike platforms to targets, and the power balance between PLA and KMT units look even worst than AFU vs LDPR units. For once, PLA can actually shell cities for massive damage and not single digit casualties.

As much as the Kiev/Sumy offensive was criticized by many on both sides, something like that might be the only way US can get ground against all the combined forces of China (not just ETC).

America needs to, on day 1, do a grand and unrealistically ambitious offensive, pull the attention of all the PLA forces, lose as little as possible while beating an organized retreat, while US forces do the equivalent of the Russian capture of the land bridge in the Taiwan area, establishing controls over islands, send in as many troops and equipment as they physically can and so on.

That way, it will be US with minor KMT backup vs China on Chinese soil, which is odds that are contestable for US at least, vs just letting the rebels get annihilated first and then queuing up to get shot at in no man's land while trying to storm beaches.
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Good thinking. So what if they make underground fortress at the southern part of the island? Will it capable to delay the PLA progress on controlling the island? Well, after all Taiwan still have hundreds thousand of soldiers at the beginning of war. Grinding them down will require quite some time and energy for PLA. If they have secured supply of energy and food.

But like Fairandunbiased said, Taiwan energy and food supply is very limited. If PLAN can managed to blockade them, they will be collapse in no time. The problem is the south-east part of the island, where US and Japan will do whatever they can to secure the logistic route into the island. And, if they can't, they will come with the name of Humanitarian aid to relieved the suffering of "Taiwan Citizen".

Now, how can PLA control the south-eastern shore / sea of Taiwan, in order to blockade them? US, Japan, and the whole Taiwan Navy will be there to secure the route. Because it is critical to them. Any thought about this?
 
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drowingfish

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Brainsuker said:
Good thinking. So what if they make underground fortress at the southern part of the island? Will it capable to delay the PLA progress on controlling the island? Well, after all Taiwan still have hundreds thousand of soldiers at the beginning of war. Grinding them down will require quite some time and energy for PLA. If they have secured supply of energy and food.

But like Fairandunbiased said, Taiwan energy and food supply is very limited. If PLAN can managed to blockade them, they will be collapse in no time. The problem is the south-east part of the island, where US and Japan will do whatever they can to secure the logistic route into the island. And, if they can't, they will come with the name of Humanitarian aid to relieved the suffering of "Taiwan Citizen".

Now, how can PLA control the south-eastern shore / sea of Taiwan, in order to blockade them? US, Japan, and the whole Taiwan Navy will be there to secure the route. Because it is critical to them. Any thought about this?
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dude you are not even understanding the basics of ground/guerilla warfare here. there is zero chance that, if the pla controls much of taiwan, a resistance is still feasible out of some bunker in the mountains. guerilla warfare actually requires access to and support of the population, if you hide in the mountains you are just bandits. you see guerilla warfare happen in afghanistan in the mountains because there are people actually living there, in taiwan the people live in cities, its totally different...are you trolling?
 
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Brainsuker

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delta115 said:
Ukraine geopgraphy is very different from Taiwan. That's why the plan for guerrilla warfare will not be as effective as in Vietnam or Afghanistan. It's an island with limited terrain for maneuver. Supplied is very hard to maintain and probably can only send in small batch. Sure, they can disguised it in form of humanitarian aid but unless PLA is a total buffoon, only small firearms might be able to get through.
You will not see modern tank or fighter jet supplied that's for sure.

Will this make PLA weaken? yes, but I doubt it will be well enough to pave the way for USMC/Navy to perform their landing on Taiwan or mainland with casulties rate that are acceptable by their citizens.

Therefore, the real issues is not capabilities of PLA to deal ROC conventional or guerrilla warfare. It's how much they willing to get hard and get real on actual conflict.
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I also doubt that USMC will perform a landing operation on Taiwan or Mainland in the time of conflict. In most of their published "wargame" with the result on their winning, it's all about a sea battle against PLA. With the result of total destruction of China Navy and heavy casualty on US, Japan, Taiwan side.

So, let say that they can only manage to supply Taiwan with small arms, like ATGM and Manpad. How well that help capable to delay PLA progress in Taiwan?
 
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Biscuits

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Brainsuker said:
Good thinking. So what if they make underground fortress at the southern part of the island? Will it capable to delay the PLA progress on controlling the island? Well, after all Taiwan still have hundreds thousand of soldiers at the beginning of war. Grinding them down will require quite some time and energy for PLA. If they have secured supply of energy and food.

But like Fairandunbiased said, Taiwan energy and food supply is very limited. If PLAN can managed to blockade them, they will be collapse in no time. The problem is the south-east part of the island, where US and Japan will do whatever they can to secure the logistic route into the island. And, if they can't, they will come with the name of Humanitarian aid to relieved the suffering of "Taiwan Citizen".

Now, how can PLA control the south-eastern shore / sea of Taiwan, in order to blockade them? US, Japan, and the whole Taiwan Navy will be there to secure the route. Because it is critical to them. Any thought about this?
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US won't gain anything from pretending its humanitarian because it is blatantly obvious they're invading. Trying to fit into humanitarian corridors would only limit their available strength and reduce their chances.

China ordinarily has tight watch all the way to Japan and Philippines, they will fly air force patrols, drones, circle ships etc, not to mention permanent satellite coverage and submarines. Any potential invader would be spotted from afar and get shot at not just by the platforms teemselves, but by YJ-21s from faraway destroyers as well as stuff on the mainland.

Just going in would cause massive casualties, which US might do should they overestimate themselves a lot, but if not, they would probably try to hit the SCS because its relatively undefended compared to Taiwan. And if a lot of Chinese forces is drawn to SCS, even if US is forced to retreat, they might be able to occupy parts of Taiwan or even other parts of the country.

But from there, they also need to keep the logistics route open, which is a whole another can of worms.

Basically this special operation has a damn bad chance to succeed and its only the mad copium of US not knowing how to keep up that has them contemplating.

Because if you think about it, it'd have been 10x easier for US to take over Taiwan in the early 00s when China didn't even have stealth fighters. Back then, the balance of power between China and US might have been like that between Ukraine and Russia. Still, America didn't want to risk it.

Now, you have 2 give or take completely equal forces, but one of them is on home turf while other has massive tyranny of distance.
 
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Brainsuker

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drowingfish said:
dude you are not even understanding the basics of ground/guerilla warfare here. there is zero chance that, if the pla controls much of taiwan, a resistance is still feasible out of some bunker in the mountains. guerilla warfare actually requires access to and support of the population, if you hide in the mountains you are just bandits. you see guerilla warfare happen in afghanistan in the mountains because there are people actually living there, in taiwan the people live in cities, its totally different...are you trolling?
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But what if they build fortresses at the mountainous area at the southern part of Taiwan as an army in conventional warfare means, using that area to defend their position against PLA? Where is better, to hole up in Taipei or to put the majority of your army at the southern part of the island, with the support of underground bunker and fortress? Also to secure your logistical support route at the south eastern shore of the island? If you're Taiwan Command, what is your choice?
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Brainsuker said:
But what if they build fortresses at the mountainous area at the southern part of Taiwan as an army in conventional warfare means, using that area to defend their position against PLA? Where is better, to hole up in Taipei or to put the majority of your army at the southern part of the island, with the support of underground bunker and fortress?
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LOL, this is really funny.

So let's say they do build underground bunkers in the mountains and stock up enough supplies to last them years.

Now what?

They're out in the middle of nowhere. They don't control any location of strategic value, they pose no immediate threat to the PLA, and they have no way to resupply without leaving their hole.

What do you expect them to accomplish?
 
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Brainsuker

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Biscuits said:
US won't gain anything from pretending its humanitarian because it is blatantly obvious they're invading. Trying to fit into humanitarian corridors would only limit their available strength and reduce their chances.

China ordinarily has tight watch all the way to Japan and Philippines, they will fly air force patrols, drones, circle ships etc, not to mention permanent satellite coverage and submarines. Any potential invader would be spotted from afar and get shot at not just by the platforms teemselves, but by YJ-21s from faraway destroyers as well as stuff on the mainland.

Just going in would cause massive casualties, which US might do should they overestimate themselves a lot, but if not, they would probably try to hit the SCS because its relatively undefended compared to Taiwan. And if a lot of Chinese forces is drawn to SCS, even if US is forced to retreat, they might be able to occupy parts of Taiwan or even other parts of the country.

But from there, they also need to keep the logistics route open, which is a whole another can of worms.

Basically this special operation has a damn bad chance to succeed and its only the mad copium of US not knowing how to keep up that has them contemplating.

Because if you think about it, it'd have been 10x easier for US to take over Taiwan in the early 00s when China didn't even have stealth fighters. Back then, the balance of power between China and US might have been like that between Ukraine and Russia. Still, America didn't want to risk it.

Now, you have 2 give or take completely equal forces, but one of them is on home turf while other has massive tyranny of distance.
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Yes, maybe because of it, that's why most of published US propaganda wargame only claim of the total destruction of PLAN ships, and never talk about a victory in land battle. I agree with you. It will be a whole another can of worms to them, if the war goes into land battle between the two.
 
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Biscuits

Major
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Brainsuker said:
But what if they build fortresses at the mountainous area at the southern part of Taiwan as an army in conventional warfare means, using that area to defend their position against PLA? Where is better, to hole up in Taipei or to put the majority of your army at the southern part of the island, with the support of underground bunker and fortress? Also to secure your logistical support route at the south eastern shore of the island? If you're Taiwan Command, what is your choice?
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Being in cities is much much smarter because Beijing will not shell its own civilians, at least unless there is such a severe threat to the country that they must contemplate scorched earth strategies.

Going out into the mountains and making bunkers there means they'll first be blind, and then they'll just get bombed with ground penetrating ammunition until there's no rebels left. The ground forces would just need to corral them away from civilian areas and then kill everything in the cordoned off areas.

Problem of cities is that civilians may cause trouble for KMT forces, as @FairAndUnbiased elaborated a bit on above. But as I see it at least, that is way more safer than going out into the countryside.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Biscuits said:
Being in cities is much much smarter because Beijing will not shell its own civilians, at least unless there is such a severe threat to the country that they must contemplate scorched earth strategies.

Going out into the mountains and making bunkers there means they'll first be blind, and then they'll just get bombed with ground penetrating ammunition until there's no rebels left. The ground forces would just need to corral them away from civilian areas and then kill everything in the cordoned off areas.

Problem of cities is that civilians may cause trouble for KMT forces, as @FairAndUnbiased elaborated a bit on above. But as I see it at least, that is way more safer than going out into the countryside.
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Their life expectancy in cities is going to be much shorter than if they went to hide in the mountains.

People are getting a warped notion of AR from focusing too much on the Russia-Ukraine War.

Russia went into the war with a manpower disadvantage. The PLA has a massive manpower advantage over the ROCAF. Urban fighting is not going to favor the side that is massively outnumbered. The PLA has been preparing for AR for 70 years. It has enough forces to garrison every neighborhood in Taiwan, should it want to do so.
 
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