Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Brainsuker said:

But what if they build fortresses at the mountainous area at the southern part of Taiwan as an army in conventional warfare means, using that area to defend their position against PLA? Where is better, to hole up in Taipei or to put the majority of your army at the southern part of the island, with the support of underground bunker and fortress? Also to secure your logistical support route at the south eastern shore of the island? If you're Taiwan Command, what is your choice?

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Little missile boats - kill with air strikes
Underground bunkers - kill with DF-15C bunker buster
West bitches and moans about human rights - earphones, favorite playlist
US thinktank analysis - ignore; don't be flattered when they say you win and don't be worried when they say you lose. They have nothing to do with reality. They thought Russia would take Kiev in 4 days and they thought the Afghan retreat would result in the US-trained forces holding the country to American values.

manqiangrexue said:

Underground bunkers - kill with DF-15C bunker buster

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Why waste DF-15 when you can just blow up the entrances

solarz said:

Their life expectancy in cities is going to be much shorter than if they went to hide in the mountains.

People are getting a warped notion of AR from focusing too much on the Russia-Ukraine War.

Russia went into the war with a manpower disadvantage. The PLA has a massive manpower advantage over the ROCAF. Urban fighting is not going to favor the side that is massively outnumbered. The PLA has been preparing for AR for 70 years. It has enough forces to garrison every neighborhood in Taiwan, should it want to do so.

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I mean if you assume there will be urban fighting to get the city people, you've already proved my point that they'll live longer than the bunker people?

As you say, many decades of national defense planning. So Beijing also knows where most bunkers are, especially since a decent if not overwhelming MSS presence is in the KMT formations.

For the bunker people, they will have moved into areas where PLA can bomb as much as they want without hurting their own. So they'll get blown up before ground forces even land.

Besides, a command collapse among KMT formation is inevitable. If they use their own civil war era remnant comms equipment (if it works still??), a lot of that is clunky enough that losing command centers will heavily disrupt it. On the other hand, Washington may be able to offer them an App to communicate through their phones, but that would mean hotlining the DF or glide bombs directly into your pocket when you switch it on.

So when that happens, you need disseminated commands, and it would be much better to be in a city than in a hillside when that happens. Pro-separatist civilians could give ISR to city based forces through good old word of mouth. While bunker people will be completely blind.

vincent said:

Why waste DF-15 when you can just blow up the entrances

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Don't wanna deal with finding them and having there be more of them and going through the trouble of hitting a bunch of 5 meter wide targets, then worrying about if they have excavators inside to reopen them, etc... when you can just end them all. If they decided to hole up in a bunker hoping to guerilla warfare the PRC, these people need to be dead, not POW'd and released. It's better for China's future to not have these people be alive.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

How big would that no-fly zone be?

Then there are the islands of Yonaguni and Itbayat. Yonaguni under Japanese control is a mere 120 kilometers east of Taiwan, while Itbayat under Filipino control is a mere 160 kilometers south of Taiwan.

There is no way China could prevent American AEW&C, SIGINT and ELINT aircrafts from circling above those islands (which are the closest that they could ever get to Taiwan apart from the Philippine Sea) without dragging Japan and the Philippines into the war, if either/both countries have no intention to/can be pursuaded not to be involved.

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The way I envision it, all aircraft become fair game within whatever zone PLA is confident in blocking off to conduct military operations. Even if these islands are technically sovereign territory of Japan and Philippines, they are isolated and away from the main islands. A lot different than if Russia tried to create an exclusionary zone that would basically be covering Poland, Romania, etc.

In any case, the advantage should still lie with PLA in an initial strike, how many FACs would be left after? By then, the even if the USA/Japan is willing to send ELINT aircraft, the probability of hitting a home run with a FAC becomes much lower.

Brainsuker said:

I always like your thought, FairAndUnbiased. Not only in here, but in our neighbor forum. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.

But then, Western allies will call for human right and bring food supply to Taiwan via UN. If China halt their food convoy, not only western allies, but many other nations will condemn China as the enemy of human rights. Remember Ukraine. They had this kind of problem at the beginning of the war. But then many nations, via UN send relieved food to Ukraine. And that's including China.

I, myself also thinking about how China can get away from this matter.

I start to think that this relieved food in Ukraine was also one of Western stratagem to sent their logistic and military supplies to Ukraine. If they can hide the weapon among humanitarian help, then Russia can't do nothing to stop those cargos.

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The enemy of human rights? Are you kidding? You are able to write English, but you've never read a western news publication where they already call China the enemy of human rights everyday? They can with one hand say that China is committing genocide, but on the other hand the whole stock market is counting on Apple and Tesla making big money in China. They are full of sh*t to put it mildly.

They say that Hikvision is facilitating the oppression of Uighurs with surveillance, but Hikvision supplies a totally similar system to American police and the result is capturing the street execution of Tyre Nichols. Maybe Hikvision is not so bad after all?

Plus you can play this game the other way around. Chinese Red Cross announces they will supply food and water to trapped civilians. Does US/Taiwan forces attack these relief convoys? Perhaps going as far as allowing civilians safe passage to the TPE airport (under PLA control in your scenario) for approved flights off the island.

Brainsuker said:

I always like your thought, FairAndUnbiased. Not only in here, but in our neighbor forum. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.

But then, Western allies will call for human right and bring food supply to Taiwan via UN. If China halt their food convoy, not only western allies, but many other nations will condemn China as the enemy of human rights. Remember Ukraine. They had this kind of problem at the beginning of the war. But then many nations, via UN send relieved food to Ukraine. And that's including China.

I, myself also thinking about how China can get away from this matter.

I start to think that this relieved food in Ukraine was also one of Western stratagem to sent their logistic and military supplies to Ukraine. If they can hide the weapon among humanitarian help, then Russia can't do nothing to stop those cargos.

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No problem. Veto any international action in the UN and say that the PLA will be the one to deliver food and medical aid to known civilians and the separatist regime is holding their food hostage. Then destroy their ports so that the only way to bring food is on amphibious military transports. Warn that foreign amphibious military transports landing is an invasion of China.

If PLA amphibious transports get struck, and they turn out to actually be filled with food, publicize it and use it as an excuse that no further food will be allowed to be delivered. If the amphibious transports are allowed to land, then PLA has won, as now Taiwan is fully dependent on Chinese food aid to survive.

Biscuits said:

I mean if you assume there will be urban fighting to get the city people, you've already proved my point that they'll live longer than the bunker people?

As you say, many decades of national defense planning. So Beijing also knows where most bunkers are, especially since a decent if not overwhelming MSS presence is in the KMT formations.

For the bunker people, they will have moved into areas where PLA can bomb as much as they want without hurting their own. So they'll get blown up before ground forces even land.

Besides, a command collapse among KMT formation is inevitable. If they use their own civil war era remnant comms equipment (if it works still??), a lot of that is clunky enough that losing command centers will heavily disrupt it. On the other hand, Washington may be able to offer them an App to communicate through their phones, but that would mean hotlining the DF or glide bombs directly into your pocket when you switch it on.

So when that happens, you need disseminated commands, and it would be much better to be in a city than in a hillside when that happens. Pro-separatist civilians could give ISR to city based forces through good old word of mouth. While bunker people will be completely blind.

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I was playing along with Brainsuker's scenario and assuming the ROC somehow has a bunch of underground bunkers that the PLA doesn't know about. As scenarios go, that's not too unrealistic.

The problem is, when you're in a hole in the middle of nowhere... you're in a hole in the middle of nowhere. Maybe they could ally with some native tribes, though last I checked, the TW natives weren't too friendly with the DPP. In any case, they're not an immediate threat and they can be left alone until the more immediate threats, like those holed up in cities, are dealt with.

Brainsuker said:

And, if they can't, they will come with the name of Humanitarian aid to relieved the suffering of "Taiwan Citizen".

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Humanitarian aid and human rights are all meaningless when there is a hegemonic clash. The US might as well as fart in the wind, that would be more meaningful than trying to pressure China with these excuses

solarz said:

LOL, this is really funny.

So let's say they do build underground bunkers in the mountains and stock up enough supplies to last them years.

Now what?

They're out in the middle of nowhere. They don't control any location of strategic value, they pose no immediate threat to the PLA, and they have no way to resupply without leaving their hole.

What do you expect them to accomplish?

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To extend the time of PLA to totally control on Taiwan, and wait for US and their allies pool their force to head on head against China. Isn't that their objective from the day 1? If they can hole up long enough, they can pray that US and their allies can gather enough force to fight PLAN directly in sea combat. I thought that this objective is known by all of us here in SDF. Well, I respect you, so I don't want to accuse anyone of trolling.

Now, I have a question. Maybe you have some insight about it. I'm sure that US will try to buy time long enough for them to gather / prepare their force in order to directly intervene in the war. They aims to grind down PLA strength in Taiwan until they ready, by doing what they're doing in Ukraine right now. So what IF China force them to directly involve before they are ready? Like, if PLA have gut to shoot down US AWACS and satellites around Taiwan from the day 1?

Yes, US will directly involve, they will join the war from the day 1. But at that time, they aren't fully ready. While PLA can muster all their might to spank US, Japan, and Taiwan elements at the battlefield. I'm sure that pulling US to the war is very dangerous, as they are a nuclear power. And a direct war between 2 nuclear power can directly goes into nuclear war. But maybe US doesn't has enough resolve to finish the world in a direct nuclear war against China. But eventually they will join the fray in conventional war in Taiwan.

But if they involve in the war from the day 1, US won't be prepared enough. And maybe, they won't even join the fray and just put more rhetoric against China in the news.

But what do you think about this?

supersnoop said:

The enemy of human rights? Are you kidding? You are able to write English, but you've never read a western news publication where they already call China the enemy of human rights everyday? They can with one hand say that China is committing genocide, but on the other hand the whole stock market is counting on Apple and Tesla making big money in China. They are full of sh*t to put it mildly.

They say that Hikvision is facilitating the oppression of Uighurs with surveillance, but Hikvision supplies a totally similar system to American police and the result is capturing the street execution of Tyre Nichols. Maybe Hikvision is not so bad after all?

Plus you can play this game the other way around. Chinese Red Cross announces they will supply food and water to trapped civilians. Does US/Taiwan forces attack these relief convoys? Perhaps going as far as allowing civilians safe passage to the TPE airport (under PLA control in your scenario) for approved flights off the island.

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But it doesn't mean that the whole world will ignore it, if China is committing genocide in Taiwan. As it is a reality in their eyes. While in Xinjiang, there is not enough proof if China doing it. For the world, US rhetoric of Xinjiang genocide is only a bullshit in their eyes. they can ignore it for the sake of their internal problem.

And for the last paragraph, yes. China can play the way around to downplay US accusation with many thing. Your idea is interesting.

Brainsuker said:

To extend the time of PLA to totally control on Taiwan, and wait for US and their allies pool their force to head on head against China. Isn't that their objective from the day 1? If they can hole up long enough, they can pray that US and their allies can gather enough force to fight PLAN directly in sea combat. I thought that this objective is known by all of us here in SDF. Well, I respect you, so I don't want to accuse anyone of trolling.

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You seem to be under the impression that this is some kind of game, where if China kills the last TW defender, China wins the map and the US can't do anything anymore.

The US would be all too happy to attack China, provided it sees an advantageous cost-benefit opportunity. That's why in all of their wargames on the subject, they always have China start off with an amphibious invasion, because that is the most advantageous position for the US.

In reality, even before any shot is fired, China is going to blockade the island. Then it will subject Taiwan to weeks of bombardment. Only after island defences have been thoroughly degraded will the PLA launch an amphibious invasion. At this point, whether or not there are ROC partisans hiding in a bunker somewhere is not going to change the equation of whether the US will intervene.