Will a blockade work if US and other countries militarily intervene.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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China can also publically warn and dictate that all foreign ships and aircrafts are strictly prohibited from entering the vicinity of Taiwan without the explicit permission given by Beijing, regardless of whether the ship or aircraft is civilian or military.
On one hand, any international humanitarian aid meant for Taiwan MUST be delivered to mainland Chinese seaports and airports first for inspection and processing. The PLA (and perhaps the China Coast Guard as well) are the only ones permitted to deliver those humanitarian aid from mainland Chinese seaports and airports to Taiwan.
Any foreign ships or aircrafts, whether that be civilian or military (bar hospital ships), that attempt to enter the vicinity of Taiwan without explicit permission from Beijing will be sunk or shot down.
Meanwhile, hospital ships are allowed to dock in Taiwan for medical purposes, but only after the permission to do so has been granted by Beijing. Their activities must be strictly monitored on-site by PLA (and/or the Coast Guard) personnel for their entire duration of presence in the vicinity of Taiwan.
Any evacuation efforts of foreign nationals from airports and ports in Taiwan should follow the same rules as the hospital ships as well.
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solarz
Brigadier
Beyond hardware, the justification of starting a war is extremely important. It impacts both international opinion and domestic support. With hindsight, Russia's biggest mistake in the current war was failing to frame the war properly and being widely seen as the aggressor. It directly affected Russia's international standing and in large part caused their shortage of manpower.
By framing every move to blockade TW as a response to American provocation, China could potentially put TW under complete blockade without giving the US any causus belli.
Once that happens, TW would be on a timer, and the US would have a very difficult time trying to avoid being seen as the aggressor if they tried to break China's blockade.
Make no mistake, if that happens, it will mean direct war between US and China. However, the US may very well find itself bereft of support both at home and abroad should that occur.
China must consider militarily intervening from third countries in any strategy, and be prepared for direct military conflicts. A complete, permanent blockage means it is not far from war.
Oh it does, one just have to check out some of the military hardware the PLA is getting (hint, it's for fighting an opponent on the other side of the sea)
I think after another visit by someone of the position that Nancy Pelosi had at that time would ignite China's blockade of Taiwan. I think it will happen somewhere around 2026-2027. China will not start a war, but a righteous blockade on its own territory by the UN conventions. Maybe cutting internet cables, some cyber and propaganda attacks inside the island as well, but nothing of lethal nature.
The first time in 2022, it was just an exercise for a possible blockade, but the next time, it will be a real deal in my opinion. I judged that by both the Chinese growing capabilities, as well as by the response of the people domestically in China. They will expect a stronger response the next time.
Not to mention that Taiwanese governments and politicians keep getting more radical. Not to mention increasing weapon donations and sales from the US to Taiwan. And not to mention the fact that even British and other European politicians started openly flaunting in Taiwan, various congressmen and other people vising like they were Pelosi without any care and treating Taiwan like a country. Just like no one sided with the US at that time in the region (not counting Japan, Australia, and vassals), no one will side with the US again.
In my opinion, China's blockade of Taiwan has a very high chance of really bringing Taiwan back under its influence and succeeding, therefore, the United States will attack militarily on Chinese vessels that are carrying the blockade, and a naval war would break out.
However, as Taiwan is 100km away from China's mainland and 7000km away from the US, China has a bigger fleet, and the fact that US navy is scattered all around the world because of their attempts to preserve global hegemony, China will win that war and humiliate the US.
It is a perfect chance for China to demilitarize the region by destroying all of its bases in Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea. Just like Mexico today respects the US, after the demilitarization, all the smaller players in the region will start respecting China's power too.
Even though Japan, South Korea, Philippines will not openly go to war with China (in my opinion they are not that crazy). They will still allow US ships to access those bases, due to their servant mentality, the perfect chance to demilitarize the region once and for all.
The US will trade to blockade China, just like China blockaded Taiwan, however, it will be unsuccessfully. Then the Chinese would close the SCS and curb all exports to the US, causing hyperinflation and possible civil war inside the US, empty Wallmarts, and that policy will be quickly over. Until then, China will probably have enough reserves of oil and some other agricultural products prepared beforehand.
I can't believe how delusional some Americans are, they think even Indonesia will intervene in the battle, while it is questionable to me if even Japan will intervene. After all, the US loses that war, they are left alone with China which they just angered. They will all keep it at the side and watch. Indonesia, for example, will be neutral and probably help China by closing its seas and airspace for Australian forces.
The first time in 2022, it was just an exercise for a possible blockade, but the next time, it will be a real deal in my opinion. I judged that by both the Chinese growing capabilities, as well as by the response of the people domestically in China. They will expect a stronger response the next time.
Not to mention that Taiwanese governments and politicians keep getting more radical. Not to mention increasing weapon donations and sales from the US to Taiwan. And not to mention the fact that even British and other European politicians started openly flaunting in Taiwan, various congressmen and other people vising like they were Pelosi without any care and treating Taiwan like a country. Just like no one sided with the US at that time in the region (not counting Japan, Australia, and vassals), no one will side with the US again.
In my opinion, China's blockade of Taiwan has a very high chance of really bringing Taiwan back under its influence and succeeding, therefore, the United States will attack militarily on Chinese vessels that are carrying the blockade, and a naval war would break out.
However, as Taiwan is 100km away from China's mainland and 7000km away from the US, China has a bigger fleet, and the fact that US navy is scattered all around the world because of their attempts to preserve global hegemony, China will win that war and humiliate the US.
It is a perfect chance for China to demilitarize the region by destroying all of its bases in Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea. Just like Mexico today respects the US, after the demilitarization, all the smaller players in the region will start respecting China's power too.
Even though Japan, South Korea, Philippines will not openly go to war with China (in my opinion they are not that crazy). They will still allow US ships to access those bases, due to their servant mentality, the perfect chance to demilitarize the region once and for all.
The US will trade to blockade China, just like China blockaded Taiwan, however, it will be unsuccessfully. Then the Chinese would close the SCS and curb all exports to the US, causing hyperinflation and possible civil war inside the US, empty Wallmarts, and that policy will be quickly over. Until then, China will probably have enough reserves of oil and some other agricultural products prepared beforehand.
I can't believe how delusional some Americans are, they think even Indonesia will intervene in the battle, while it is questionable to me if even Japan will intervene. After all, the US loses that war, they are left alone with China which they just angered. They will all keep it at the side and watch. Indonesia, for example, will be neutral and probably help China by closing its seas and airspace for Australian forces.
Not like the US cares about casus belli. The reality is PR isn’t important in this case because if they win then no one is going to complain and neither will anyone really care. Justification is only needed to convince their own populace and allies which they don’t need in the first place.
IMO I don’t think a blockade without an AR is ideal. Sure Taiwan is on a timer but this gives time for the US to response and build up a major attack alongside the opportunity to choose when.
Quite likely, a lot of these US dependencies might adopt a Belarus like stance. They will let US forces pass through and maybe even do strikes over their territory, but they will not participate in the invasion.
SK is almost certainly gonna seal itself off because NK is a huge threat.
Where China has room to work its diplomacy is Japan.
Japan, ruled by the fascist LDP Kishites, butchers of Manchuria, Taiwan and Korea. They have grievances not only with China but also America and Korea. Yet, they also have their personal revanchist designs for Taiwan.
However, they're not all aggression either, the population overall are on mostly friendly terms with China, and they are broadly speaking not warlike, only the regime is.
Even if it is highly distasteful, China must perhaps create a grand bargain with the Kishites. Japan can be given a large concession, so that they will prioritize their grievances with America rather than China and their revanchist designs when it comes down to it. And China could use both threats and incentive to make this bargain accepted.
As an example, it could be an agreement that when the time comes for US to invade, Japan will ban them from using their bases and expel them. Then, Japan will be considered a friendly territory and after the war be restored as a fully sovereign country under the GSI framework, with all American occupied territory returned to the LDP's hands, and China will never seek to change the Japanese government.
As I see it, Japan is the final domino for US in Asia. Without Japan they're truly alone in Asia, and America has stupidly tied its fate to Asia, so they will have no choice but to fight alone and be defeated in front of a whole coalition of pro China and neutrals. The shock of that defeat would instantly unwrap US control even in its core territories.
SK is almost certainly gonna seal itself off because NK is a huge threat.
Where China has room to work its diplomacy is Japan.
Japan, ruled by the fascist LDP Kishites, butchers of Manchuria, Taiwan and Korea. They have grievances not only with China but also America and Korea. Yet, they also have their personal revanchist designs for Taiwan.
However, they're not all aggression either, the population overall are on mostly friendly terms with China, and they are broadly speaking not warlike, only the regime is.
Even if it is highly distasteful, China must perhaps create a grand bargain with the Kishites. Japan can be given a large concession, so that they will prioritize their grievances with America rather than China and their revanchist designs when it comes down to it. And China could use both threats and incentive to make this bargain accepted.
As an example, it could be an agreement that when the time comes for US to invade, Japan will ban them from using their bases and expel them. Then, Japan will be considered a friendly territory and after the war be restored as a fully sovereign country under the GSI framework, with all American occupied territory returned to the LDP's hands, and China will never seek to change the Japanese government.
As I see it, Japan is the final domino for US in Asia. Without Japan they're truly alone in Asia, and America has stupidly tied its fate to Asia, so they will have no choice but to fight alone and be defeated in front of a whole coalition of pro China and neutrals. The shock of that defeat would instantly unwrap US control even in its core territories.
In my opinion, there is a possibility of Japan becoming friendly to China, but only after they are liberated from those US bases and after they see that the US got defeated around Taiwan by some other party, in this case, I expect China to do that.
You must understand today's Japan from a psychological point of view. After all, they are the only nation in existence that got nuclear bombed. They have a nationwide Stockholm Syndrom. Also, all of their most masculine men got killed in WW2 like the Germans. Today they have only some anime-loving population. They are very passive, they are not going to get off the US grips themselves.
Yes, I remembered now that China also has friends in the region. I fully expect Russia to allow China to strike or pass through their territory, or other friendly countries like Myanmar, Cambodia, or Pakistan (of course if China needs them then for whatever reason).
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