Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

solarz said:

Beyond hardware, the justification of starting a war is extremely important. It impacts both international opinion and domestic support. With hindsight, Russia's biggest mistake in the current war was failing to frame the war properly and being widely seen as the aggressor. It directly affected Russia's international standing and in large part caused their shortage of manpower.

By framing every move to blockade TW as a response to American provocation, China could potentially put TW under complete blockade without giving the US any causus belli.

Once that happens, TW would be on a timer, and the US would have a very difficult time trying to avoid being seen as the aggressor if they tried to break China's blockade.

Make no mistake, if that happens, it will mean direct war between US and China. However, the US may very well find itself bereft of support both at home and abroad should that occur.

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Putin actually did a good job laying out Russia’s justifications for the invasion. If you listen to his speeches, the reasons are obvious.

It didn’t help Russia none because it can’t control the narrative. Entire situation is made worse by Russia’s lackluster performance on the battlefield.

The same problem faces China. It will be framed as the aggressor no matter the justifications. It can’t control the narrative.

FriedButter said:

Not like the US cares about casus belli. The reality is PR isn’t important in this case because if they win then no one is going to complain and neither will anyone really care. Justification is only needed to convince their own populace and allies which they don’t need in the first place.

IMO I don’t think a blockade without an AR is ideal. Sure Taiwan is on a timer but this gives time for the US to response and build up a major attack alongside the opportunity to choose when.

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Also wouldn’t the blockade be somewhat similar to Russia SMO? The Russians didn’t fully commit and took more than half a year before changing their tactics. We already know how disastrous of a mistake that is. Wouldn’t this be similar to a blockade over Taiwan? If China holds back and the West builds up during that time then it just ends up back in the same place but with worst conditions.

edit: not to mention Taiwan will be spending the next x months digging trenches and building fortifications that stretch from the beach to the mountains.

Mischa said:

China must consider militarily intervening from third countries in any strategy, and be prepared for direct military conflicts. A complete, permanent blockage means it is not far from war.

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PLA strategists have always planned for US intervention in an AR. It’s just the degree of intervention that has changed. Given US stance towards China and Taiwan today, a blockade will not work unless you can defeat the US navy.

Serb said:

You must understand today's Japan from a psychological point of view. After all, they are the only nation in existence that got nuclear bombed. They have a nationwide Stockholm Syndrom. Also, all of their most masculine men got killed in WW2 like the Germans. Today they have only some anime-loving population. They are very passive, they are not going to get off the US grips themselves.

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That is an extremely dangerous mindset to have. We've seen repeatedly seen how Russia has boasted about it's manly man against woke western armies. All that is just propaganda for domestic consumption, when the shooting started all of that basically counted for naught.

You must assume that the enemy will be professional and effective in their usage of tactics and equipment, to assume the enemy would just fall over at the sight of casualties is what leads to the current stalemate and heavy losses against Ukraine.

Petrolicious88 said:

Putin actually did a good job laying out Russia’s justifications for the invasion. If you listen to his speeches, the reasons are obvious.

It didn’t help Russia none because it can’t control the narrative. Entire situation is made worse by Russia’s lackluster performance on the battlefield.

The same problem faces China. It will be framed as the aggressor no matter the justifications. It can’t control the narrative.

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We are not asking what the insane Americans themselves or their most colonized dependencies think, but what rest of the world, the parts that actually will matter think.

What Russia did helped them secure enough support to wage their war, even though it was an offensive war. Now will US be able to lay out the same level of support from the neutrals? Not if the current trends continue.

Petrolicious88 said:

Putin actually did a good job laying out Russia’s justifications for the invasion. If you listen to his speeches, the reasons are obvious.

It didn’t help Russia none because it can’t control the narrative. Entire situation is made worse by Russia’s lackluster performance on the battlefield.

The same problem faces China. It will be framed as the aggressor no matter the justifications. It can’t control the narrative.

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At the end of the day, Russia really technically did invade a sovereign UN country in an objective kind of outlook.

However, they got sanctions (the only thing that actually matters) from around 15% of the world population.

I would say that Russia's rhetoric was very successful. Additionally, domestically there is 80% support for Putin.

As for what the Collective West, that 15% of the world, thinks, who cares. They innately hate Russia either way.

tankphobia said:

That is an extremely dangerous mindset to have. We've seen repeatedly seen how Russia has boasted about it's manly man against woke western armies. All that is just propaganda for domestic consumption, when the shooting started all of that basically counted for naught.

You must assume that the enemy will be professional and effective in their usage of tactics and equipment, to assume the enemy would just fall over at the sight of casualties is what leads to the current stalemate and heavy losses against Ukraine.

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To some extent, but to ignore that there would be a morale mismatch would also be ignoring part of the basic reality on the ground.

China is fighting for self preservation in its home. There's no places to retreat. In contrast, American soldiers will be sent more than 10000km away from their homes, to fight and die on foreign soil if they're lucky, and if they're unlucky, drown before they can even reach the beaches.

The US leaders have tied their fate to a successful campaign, but how many American grunts know this fact and can feel a personal willingness to risk themselves for it?

With Americans attacking directly into fortified Chinese ground, there may be casualties 3, 4, 5 times worse for US forces than for the PLA. To simply handwave away the morale issues that could cause... China would not plan for US immediately surrendering when they lose a lot of men, but it should not be handwaved that an invasion of China will be an unpopular proposition in US no matter how hard the government spins it, because if the SMO was a war of an unexpected scale for Russia, the Taiwan campaign will be a war that makes the SMO look like the Chechnya war in comparison.

To expect Americans to shed that much blood, which could be in the 100 thousands in the start and later into the millions... To take over an area they have 0 cultural connection with aside from their government wanting the strategic geography. Even with the "Russian genocide" and "2nd great patriotic war" narrative, Russia did not find it too easy to mobilize for a war right next door.

FriedButter said:

Also wouldn’t the blockade be somewhat similar to Russia SMO? The Russians didn’t fully commit and took more than half a year before changing their tactics. We already know how disastrous of a mistake that is. Wouldn’t this be similar to a blockade over Taiwan? If China holds back and the West builds up during that time then it just ends up back in the same place but with worst conditions.

edit: not to mention Taiwan will be spending the next x months digging trenches and building fortifications that stretch from the beach to the mountains.

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You know Taiwan has to import like 90% of the food and pretty much all fossil fuels from outside, right?

theorlonator said:

They finally released a part 2 lol. It's funny how grim these officials feel:

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If it's any consolation to them, they'll lose far more than a single frigate if they jump in.

Biscuits said:

We are not asking what the insane Americans themselves or their most colonized dependencies think, but what rest of the world, the parts that actually will matter think.

What Russia did helped them secure enough support to wage their war, even though it was an offensive war. Now will US be able to lay out the same level of support from the neutrals? Not if the current trends continue.

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Does the rest of the world matter though? Cause there’s about 25 - 30 countries that control the world.

The game is over for the US if China can secure support from Europe or India. The rest of the world doesn’t matter.