Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Status
Not open for further replies.
S

Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
"Where we go from Okinawa, I think, will be always in the context of where the risk is to something that's destabilizing, where the risk is to the national interest of the U.S. and other countries," Berger said, adding that any relevant decision is made by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, per
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

The expanded regiment, previously the 12th Marine Regiment, was agreed upon by the U.S. and Japan following the 2023 U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee meeting in January, according to the U.S. Naval Institute. The unit is expected to be formed by 2025 and will have “advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, as well as anti-ship and transportation capabilities,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during the meeting.

The regiment would be able to island hop undetected to carry out various missions, including intelligence-gathering and anti-ship missile operations, in the region.

Additionally, Berger said loitering munitions could play a role in blocking enemy access to strategic chokepoints by sea, Nikkei cited him as saying.

In the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese military could prevent Taiwan from reaching its eastern sea routes or even try entering the Pacific by sailing through the first island chain. Attack drones with anti-ship missiles could be effective in stopping China from pursuing these strategies.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
T

Taiban

Junior Member
Registered Member
Palantir CEO: Russia’s Lack of AI in Ukraine ‘A Massive Disadvantage’



Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Targeting is a balanced mix of Art and Science with visionary leadership. AI enablement would surely be the difference will surely ensure better precision, survivability and faster response
 
B

Brainsuker

Junior Member
Registered Member
Stierlitz said:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Click to expand...

Well, don't laugh at that "Sleek Missile Corvettes". Yes, they small, can only carry small number of missiles, and can't venture into far away ocean. But it's purpose is to defend Taiwan island. So it doesn't need to be big and has sophisticated radar. I think they think that they can depend on US AWACS that fly around the "International Water" around the war zone and US "Civilian" Satellites at the orbit to help them target China's strategic / tactical target.

They think If Ukraine can scare away bigger Russian Fleet in the black sea battle zone, they can also scare Chinese more sophisticated fleet around the Taiwan Strait with their land based AShM and these "Sleek Missile Corvettes". So I don't know if there is any ships that will sail around the Taiwan Strait at the time of war. They want to use some kind of modern guerrilla warfare (that they learn from Ukraine) to beat Mainland.

I dunno, what is PLAN counter-plan for this Taiwan tactic. Will they use smaller ships like Type 22 with the help of China land-based HQ-9 and HQ-16 air defence system to rule the strait, while their bigger, and sophisticated one stay at the western and north east sea (from Taiwan Island)? Or they will swarm the sea with Sea-faring drones at the strait?

What is Chinese's CBG role in the war? Will they stay at the East China sea, to help blockade Taiwan from their north-eastern sea, and deter US - Japan fleet in Okinawa and Miyako Strait?

For if US and Taiwan want to apply guerrilla warfare to prolong the war in Taiwan, don't they aware that they face a force that actually invented guerrilla warfare in the first place? Who wrote guerrilla warfare doctrine? Mao Zedong. Do PLA really abandon these guerrilla warfare doctrine that invented by Mao, long time ago? I'm not sure about that.

I think guerrilla warfare doctrine still become the most important aspect of PLA doctrine to this modern day. Because we all know that even Uighur Extremists couldn't survive long enough in their struggle against China with their guerrilla warfare tactic.

So what do you think about this?
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Brainsuker said:
Well, don't laugh at that "Sleek Missile Corvettes". Yes, they small, can only carry small number of missiles, and can't venture into far away ocean. But it's purpose is to defend Taiwan island. So it doesn't need to be big and has sophisticated radar. I think they think that they can depend on US AWACS that fly around the "International Water" around the war zone and US "Civilian" Satellites at the orbit to help them target China's strategic / tactical target.

They think If Ukraine can scare away bigger Russian Fleet in the black sea battle zone, they can also scare Chinese more sophisticated fleet around the Taiwan Strait with their land based AShM and these "Sleek Missile Corvettes". So I don't know if there is any ships that will sail around the Taiwan Strait at the time of war. They want to use some kind of modern guerrilla warfare (that they learn from Ukraine) to beat Mainland.

I dunno, what is PLAN counter-plan for this Taiwan tactic. Will they use smaller ships like Type 22 with the help of China land-based HQ-9 and HQ-16 air defence system to rule the strait, while their bigger, and sophisticated one stay at the western and north east sea (from Taiwan Island)? Or they will swarm the sea with Sea-faring drones at the strait?

What is Chinese's CBG role in the war? Will they stay at the East China sea, to help blockade Taiwan from their north-eastern sea, and deter US - Japan fleet in Okinawa and Miyako Strait?

For if US and Taiwan want to apply guerrilla warfare to prolong the war in Taiwan, don't they aware that they face a force that actually invented guerrilla warfare in the first place? Who wrote guerrilla warfare doctrine? Mao Zedong. Do PLA really abandon these guerrilla warfare doctrine that invented by Mao, long time ago? I'm not sure about that.

I think guerrilla warfare doctrine still become the most important aspect of PLA doctrine to this modern day. Because we all know that even Uighur Extremists couldn't survive long enough in their struggle against China with their guerrilla warfare tactic.

So what do you think about this?
Click to expand...
The smaller the radar is, the worse the situational awareness will be. They will be less able to maximize the missile range.

PLAN should be able to spot these vessels with superior numbers of AEW, MPA, Satellite, and more powerful ship radars and knock them out before they are even aware they are being targeted.

You are putting way too much stock into Guerrilla Warfare. Even in Afghanistan where the US was seen as losing, the US was not threatened on a strategic level by the Taliban. If some militants launched a rocket or mortar attack on a defended position, they were basically annihilated by counter battery fire or drones. The continued presence of guerrilla attacks were really just a symptom of the US’ inability to effectively govern Afghanistan.

A better comparison than Uighurs might be Chechens who actually fought a full fledged civil war against Russia, yet today are considered amongst Russia’s fiercest troops. Russia was able to adjust their approach to governance.
 
lcloo

lcloo

Captain
Aval said:
The CPC abandoned the idea of global liberation decades ago. They are nationalists using communist theory to run a nation. If anything, China seems to push for multipolarity more than Russia given how hard it supports the UN and its existence as a blueprint for a multipolar world ruled by regional hegemons (as envisaged by FDR, just with China as the "first among equals" instead of America).

Say China succeeds at Reunification and becomes the greatest nation on the planet, with all critical geopolitical interests secured. Would the historically geocentric Chinese risk their golden age in an altruistic crusade for global liberation?
Click to expand...
Your subtle message of China's crusade for global leberation is not true. China's support for uprising in other countries are mostly symbolic except in Korea war and Vietnam war, but that was mainly due to the wars were right at the door steps of China rather than global liberation and also because of China's #1 enemy, Americans involment in the wars.

Crusade for global liberation is more appropriately refer to USSR, not China.

An example is in Malaysia. Immediately after then end of WW2, the Communist Party of Malaya (CPM) fought against the British colonial government, and continue to fight against an independent Malaya after 1957, and ended in 1989 with peace treaty with Malaysian government. From pre-WW2 to 1989s, CPM had no support from China in terms of weapons and training, though China did gave them a radio station (for propaganda) based in Hunan and permitted some leaders of CPM to stay in exile in China.
 
B

Brainsuker

Junior Member
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
The smaller the radar is, the worse the situational awareness will be. They will be less able to maximize the missile range.

PLAN should be able to spot these vessels with superior numbers of AEW, MPA, Satellite, and more powerful ship radars and knock them out before they are even aware they are being targeted.

You are putting way too much stock into Guerrilla Warfare. Even in Afghanistan where the US was seen as losing, the US was not threatened on a strategic level by the Taliban. If some militants launched a rocket or mortar attack on a defended position, they were basically annihilated by counter battery fire or drones. The continued presence of guerrilla attacks were really just a symptom of the US’ inability to effectively govern Afghanistan.

A better comparison than Uighurs might be Chechens who actually fought a full fledged civil war against Russia, yet today are considered amongst Russia’s fiercest troops. Russia was able to adjust their approach to governance.
Click to expand...
Well, yes. Individually, they're weak. But if they get support from any US electronic warfare element, they can be deadlier. For example, do you think that Ukraine land based AshM squad has a big radar that can endanger Russian Black Sea Fleet by itself? But because there are NATO AWACS element, plus Elon Musk satellites at the orbit, their threat raise exponentially.

I'm sure that this "Sleek Missile Corvette" also emphasis on that coordination ability. By itself, they're weak. but wait until China face several US AWACS fly around Taiwan Isle at International Water. Those Sleek Small Corvette will become more dangerous than before.

I emphasis on guerrilla warfare, because one of US wargame also emphasis on this type of battle, too. They think that Taiwan military elements can prolong the war long enough, if they abandon the northern part of island, which is in flat terrain, and choose to conduct guerrilla warfare at the hilly forests at the south part of Taiwan.

You can't use Chenchens versus Russia as the example of guerrilla warfare example. Because of one of Mao Zedong guerrilla warfare theory. in Guerrilla warfare, in order for you to success, you need a standing army to protect your guerrilla elements. I read this from AH Nasution's guerrilla book synopsis. AH Nasution was an Indonesia TNI General in 1966. He quoted Mao Zedong's guerrilla warfare theory in his book. And this warfare tactic / strategy has been proof very effectively by the PLA themselves.

Chenchens couldn't use guerrilla warfare just because they didn't had any standing army backup. But Taiwan has. A very powerful standing army, with the name USN 7th fleet.

But US think tank forget, that the one who invented modern guerrilla warfare tactic was Mao Zedong. And PLA has mastered this tactic from long time ago.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Brainsuker said:
Well, yes. Individually, they're weak. But if they get support from any US electronic warfare element, they can be deadlier. For example, do you think that Ukraine land based AshM squad has a big radar that can endanger Russian Black Sea Fleet by itself? But because there are NATO AWACS element, plus Elon Musk satellites at the orbit, their threat raise exponentially.

I'm sure that this "Sleek Missile Corvette" also emphasis on that coordination ability. By itself, they're weak. but wait until China face several US AWACS fly around Taiwan Isle at International Water. Those Sleek Small Corvette will become more dangerous than before.

I emphasis on guerrilla warfare, because one of US wargame also emphasis on this type of battle, too. They think that Taiwan military elements can prolong the war long enough, if they abandon the northern part of island, which is in flat terrain, and choose to conduct guerrilla warfare at the hilly forests at the south part of Taiwan.

You can't use Chenchens versus Russia as the example of guerrilla warfare example. Because of one of Mao Zedong guerrilla warfare theory. in Guerrilla warfare, in order for you to success, you need a standing army to protect your guerrilla elements. I read this from AH Nasution's guerrilla book synopsis. AH Nasution was an Indonesia TNI General in 1966. He quoted Mao Zedong's guerrilla warfare theory in his book. And this warfare tactic / strategy has been proof very effectively by the PLA themselves.

Chenchens couldn't use guerrilla warfare just because they didn't had any standing army backup. But Taiwan has. A very powerful standing army, with the name USN 7th fleet.

But US think tank forget, that the one who invented modern guerrilla warfare tactic was Mao Zedong. And PLA has mastered this tactic from long time ago.
Click to expand...

I really have to wonder, are you trolling or are you just that ignorant?

The ROC military stops training outdoors once it reaches above 32C. You really expect them to live in a jungle for months?
 
S

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Brainsuker said:
Well, yes. Individually, they're weak. But if they get support from any US electronic warfare element, they can be deadlier. For example, do you think that Ukraine land based AshM squad has a big radar that can endanger Russian Black Sea Fleet by itself? But because there are NATO AWACS element, plus Elon Musk satellites at the orbit, their threat raise exponentially.

I'm sure that this "Sleek Missile Corvette" also emphasis on that coordination ability. By itself, they're weak. but wait until China face several US AWACS fly around Taiwan Isle at International Water. Those Sleek Small Corvette will become more dangerous than before.

I emphasis on guerrilla warfare, because one of US wargame also emphasis on this type of battle, too. They think that Taiwan military elements can prolong the war long enough, if they abandon the northern part of island, which is in flat terrain, and choose to conduct guerrilla warfare at the hilly forests at the south part of Taiwan.

You can't use Chenchens versus Russia as the example of guerrilla warfare example. Because of one of Mao Zedong guerrilla warfare theory. in Guerrilla warfare, in order for you to success, you need a standing army to protect your guerrilla elements. I read this from AH Nasution's guerrilla book synopsis. AH Nasution was an Indonesia TNI General in 1966. He quoted Mao Zedong's guerrilla warfare theory in his book. And this warfare tactic / strategy has been proof very effectively by the PLA themselves.

Chenchens couldn't use guerrilla warfare just because they didn't had any standing army backup. But Taiwan has. A very powerful standing army, with the name USN 7th fleet.

But US think tank forget, that the one who invented modern guerrilla warfare tactic was Mao Zedong. And PLA has mastered this tactic from long time ago.
Click to expand...

US must be in a position to send them this data. In a war scenario, China would likely declare a no-fly zone and put the risk on the US to escalate. Russia does not have this option due to the fact that Ukraine is right next to NATO countries.

If the ROC army has lost the North of the island, what kind of standing army do you think is remaining?

The North is the richest part of the country, the most industrialized, the seat of government, etc. etc.

If you expect US intervention from the get go, a dozen of these corvettes are not enough to make a difference vs things like… an entire aircraft carrier?

If the PLA is established, how do you expect the US to land troops to retake the island? How do you supply the troops isolated on the island?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top