Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Brainsuker said:

I think the most significant lessons that China can learn from Ukraine conflict is that you can't finish a war without closing down Taiwan's supply route. As long as US and their allies can supply Taiwan side with weapons, etc, Taiwan struggle won't be end. The problem is, that Taiwan may have some secret supply route in underground that can connect their land with US base in Okinawa. And that problem will be hard to be resolved. Unless China has a missile / torpedo that can penetrate underground bunker under the sea.

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Brainsuker said:

Maybe I deserved it to be laughed at here. Ok then, please laugh at me, but tell me about your taught so I can learn in here.

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Patchwork_Chimera said:

Maybe he's been eating better lately, since this time only Turkey and Syria got a whiff of that wiggle action.

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Patchwork_Chimera said:

He was a good dude, and deeply cared about helping people. One of the few guys I've met who I actually believed when he said he just wanted to save lives. It's sad that he's gone, and I hope people on here will show a bit of compassion.

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Patchwork_Chimera said:

One death something something tragedy, 1,000,000 something something statistic.

It is one matter to simply make light of a tragic event, while still knowing it was tragic, and wishing the best for those affected. Just about everyone has done this to some degree, likely including you.

It is another - in my opinion - to sincerely celebrate tragedy befalling a specific individual, dismissing or disparaging their good deeds, and denying the tragedy of the event altogether.

I have seen plenty of the latter on other platforms in reference to Pete's death. As such, hoping not to see it spread to this one, I chose to address why his death was especially bleak - that being, because he was one of the few truly good-hearted people out there, and was killed while trying to do nothing more than to help others.

Forgive me if I find Xi Jinping fart jokes to be less of a concern than the notion of people celebrating the death of someone that would have saved their life without a second thought.

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Brainsuker said:

Then why would they provoke Mainland China again and again with Taiwan issue? Their adventurism with Pelosi's visit was really a very dangerous incident that could start the war. I think there is only one possible answer. They (US think tanks) believe that they can win against China. But not only win. Because a Pyrrhic victory is a lost to the US side calculation.

I think a direct war between US and China can also to be considered as a lost to US side. Because that war will be very devastated to both. And that is not what US want. If their goal is to protect their world hegemony position, then being devastated mean that they can't achieve their goal. Unless, of course, it is their allies that will absorb the destruction, and not them.

So I think these are some of US calculation (not all) for the Taiwan conflict :
1. US has geographical advantage compared to China, as China need to pass Japan to reach US soil.
2. US will utilize their allies, for example Japan and Philippine to absorb their lost in battle. Also to add more calculus to their advantage.
3. US objective is to destroy China's economy growth, to ensure that China can't compete against them. Taiwan is a trap to bring China into a prolonged war that can exhausted China's resource. Plus, this war can also give US the justification to cut China's sea trading route in Malaka Strait and others.

4. If they can, US prefer an indirect involvement in the conflict. They will use Taiwan as the 2nd Ukraine. If Taiwan need reinforcement, they will use Philippine and Japanese army to replenish Taiwan force. Maybe, US will eventually join the fray, but only after China weakened, so they can declare victory against China.

So what should China do, and what does China learn from Ukraine war to deter US?
1. China need allies that located at strategic location globally, and help them economically, and militarily. To deter US intervention against them. This Allies can change the calculus in China - US rivalry. Of course, US will do whatever they can to deter the country from joining China side. But these Allies should be prioritized by Beijing. To do this, China has to abandon their Lone Wolf mentality and become a Wolf Pack one. Because being an ally mean that China can't only think about their interest alone, but also to the Ally interest.

2. China need to deter US allies around the East and South East Asia, by any mean necessary. Ukraine war does not only teach China, but also to US Allies, too. They can learn that getting involve in a two Superpower conflict means that they can become the next Ukraine. I think China has already has doing this, but with limited success. It is because those countries fear US more than China. And they think that take side with US has more advantaged compared to China.

3. China needs to help Russia from being destroyed because Ukraine war. There are two reasons for this. 1st Because Russia has Nukes. And 2nd, because Russia can directly strike US soils with their nukes, unlike China that surrounded by US Allies. With this, China can deter US more. Plus they have ports at the eastern side of Russia that can directly sail into US mainland (not Alaska).

4. There are two countries in South East Asia that very important to China and US in the conflict. 1st Philippine, 2nd Indonesia. Both countries located at a very strategic location that can contain China, or to become the gate for China to the oceans. If they side with US, then these two countries will become the battlefield for China. But if they side with China, US influence in the whole South East Asia will crumble. But once again, China need to discard their lone wolf mentality.

The problem is, Beijing handled Philippine wrongfully before, so they become antagonistic to China.

Now, what Beijing can learn from Ukraine War that they can implemented to the future (possible) Taiwan war?

I can only say about one matter. Because everything else has been discussed before. Taiwan logistic route problem. I'm sure that Taiwan will use their eastern shore to recieved weapons and logistic from US and Allies. And they (US, Taiwan, Japan) will definitely protect this route with everything they have.

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drowingfish said:

TBH i think the US getting involved in direct military conflict with any of the world's premier powers is considered a loss, there is simply no way to win against a nuclear power. even assuming things don't go nuclear, and everything unfolds the way the US wants to, it will still be a very long drawn out war against China. China is just too big to be swiftly taken down IMO.

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drowingfish said:

TBH i think the US getting involved in direct military conflict with any of the world's premier powers is considered a loss, there is simply no way to win against a nuclear power. even assuming things don't go nuclear, and everything unfolds the way the US wants to, it will still be a very long drawn out war against China. China is just too big to be swiftly taken down IMO.

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Biscuits said:

There's likely a clique that wants war and a clique that wants to avoid war.

While right now I don't think the pro war clique in America is as strong as the pro war clique was in Russia February last year, things can always change. Both for the better or for the worse.

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Overbom said:

I don't rate the risk high now. The real danger is when Republicans get in power in the next presidential elections

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Patchwork_Chimera said:

One death something something tragedy, 1,000,000 something something statistic.

It is one matter to simply make light of a tragic event, while still knowing it was tragic, and wishing the best for those affected. Just about everyone has done this to some degree, likely including you.

It is another - in my opinion - to sincerely celebrate tragedy befalling a specific individual, dismissing or disparaging their good deeds, and denying the tragedy of the event altogether.

I have seen plenty of the latter on other platforms in reference to Pete's death. As such, hoping not to see it spread to this one, I chose to address why his death was especially bleak - that being, because he was one of the few truly good-hearted people out there, and was killed while trying to do nothing more than to help others.

Forgive me if I find Xi Jinping fart jokes to be less of a concern than the notion of people celebrating the death of someone that would have saved their life without a second thought.

Click to expand...