Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

ACuriousPLAFan said:

The problem is, they can't, even if they want to. The stakes involved are just too massive. Why?

#1 - Distance involved - As per your proposed Taiwan-Okinawa "tunnel", the total length of the "tunnel" itself would be at least 700 kilometers long. The longest tunnel in the world so far is the Delaware Aqueduct in northeastern US, and that's only 137 kilometers long.

700 kilometers of under-the-seabed "tunnel" isn't the same as 137 kilometers of underground tunnel, you know? The sheer technical and engineering difficulties involved would have been ginormous - Not even the "infrastructure monster" China managed to accomplish such a feat.

Plus, how do you even expect a construction of such scale to even go unnoticed at all?

#2 - Seismic activity - Taiwan and the entire Ryukyu Island Chain (or shall I say, the entirety of Japan) is located right along the tectonic fault lines of East Asia and Western Pacific.

Kindly refer to the following map taken from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster:
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Notice how the Okinawa Plate, Philippine Plate and Yangtze Plate are pushing against each other? Taiwan and the Ryuku Islands are located right along this region - That's why they often have earthquakes. And this is the exact kind of unstable geography that this "tunnel" has to deal with.

Other than the distance of the "tunnel" involved, having to make sure that your under-the-seabed tunnel won't collapse in an active earthquake zone would only add even more complexity to the construction of this "tunnel".

#3 - Cost - For reference, the proposed Japan-Korea tunnel, which is around 180 kilometers long and passing through the Tsushima Strait, is estimated to cost around 170 billion USD.

Now, you wanna try to build that 700 kilometers of under-the-seabed "tunnel" - In an active seismic zone - Imagine how much cost would that entail?

Furthermore, how are you going to hide that massive amount of budget allocation for the construction of this "tunnel" from public scrutiny, to begin with?

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Brainsuker said:

Then in the time of invasion, Taiwan can only rely on their air - sea route to get more supply / weapon? Doesn't it mean that they're doomed already? Because US can't play the same card as they do in Ukraine. As PLA can easily detect which ports that they use for supply / logistic route and can easily bombard the port whenever US cargo ships come to bring new weapon to them?

If that the case, then the only way for US and Japan to help Taiwan by directly involve in the war?

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Michaelsinodef said:

Taiwan has been doomed for quite a while, unless the US and Japan directly intervenes.

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Brainsuker said:

Then, in the time of conflict, Taiwan won't be able to stand against Mainland like Ukraine. Because it is way harder for them to replenish their weapons and logistic. Just after the first round of engagement, where they lose their initial weapons and ammo, Taiwan will have no means to continue their struggle, except if US decided to directly intervene, which means the conflict will between US and China, and the battlefield won't be in Taiwan alone.

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Brainsuker said:

Then, in the time of conflict, Taiwan won't be able to stand against Mainland like Ukraine. Because it is way harder for them to replenish their weapons and logistic. Just after the first round of engagement, where they lose their initial weapons and ammo, Taiwan will have no means to continue their struggle, except if US decided to directly intervene, which means the conflict will between US and China, and the battlefield won't be in Taiwan alone.

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Biscuits said:

Taiwan is like the LDPR except China isn't shelling them regularly. Without heavy handed American + possibly Japanese special operation or outright war, they will get folded in a few days.

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solarz said:

You just realized this now?

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Brainsuker said:

Well, I thought, what if there is a way to build a tunnel. But if it's impossible, then there is no access for Taiwan to get new weapons and logistics when their innitial firepower get destroyed. As watching over the eastern shore of Taiwan for any incoming ship is easier than watching the western land border of Ukraine. Except if Taiwan has a Submarine cave under the sea, so US submarines can coming in secret. But that also impossible, because no submarine can can bring M1 Abram or Stryker to Taiwan. Plus, PLAN can also notice the cave location and bombard the door with their missiles.

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solarz said:

The question was never about whether Taiwan can hold out, it has always been about the possibility of a US-China war.

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