Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

I think the most significant lessons that China can learn from Ukraine conflict is that you can't finish a war without closing down Taiwan's supply route. As long as US and their allies can supply Taiwan side with weapons, etc, Taiwan struggle won't be end. The problem is, that Taiwan may have some secret supply route in underground that can connect their land with US base in Okinawa. And that problem will be hard to be resolved. Unless China has a missile / torpedo that can penetrate underground bunker under the sea.

Brainsuker said:

I think the most significant lessons that China can learn from Ukraine conflict is that you can't finish a war without closing down Taiwan's supply route. As long as US and their allies can supply Taiwan side with weapons, etc, Taiwan struggle won't be end. The problem is, that Taiwan may have some secret supply route in underground that can connect their land with US base in Okinawa. And that problem will be hard to be resolved. Unless China has a missile / torpedo that can penetrate underground bunker under the sea.

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but the irony is that no country on earth is capable of building this kind of undersea tunnel except? China!!, you guess it.

Biscuits said:

That is not the reason. US is willing to take suicidal actions against China because China is an existential threat while Russia is not.

No matter how Russia wins, US will still keep its integrity for the foreseeable future. In the past, US lost in Korea and Vietnam to economically smaller China, and they went out of that just fine. They even lost to taliban. Losing wars is ok for US, but modern China due to being the world's largest market and trade bloc holder will not just defeat US on the battlefield, but chase them all the way to the US mainland, even if not through literal invasion, at least using economic sanctions. And that will cause complete social collapse.

China needs no first use so they can blast the shit out of US invaders with precision missiles without fears of starting a nuclear war.

China needs to keep nukes opaque to not make for example India start going on crazy procurement sprees that eliminates Chinese ability to pull off a clean first strike.

Neither are reasons why US wants war. They want war because they know they will be persecuted for their misdeeds sooner or later, that China has global reach, there is nowhere to hide, and it will only get worse with time.

Besides, between 2 oligarchies, US and Russia, there can always be negotiations, "spheres of interest" demarcated and so on. Hence the Russian insistence on "multipolarity", a statement that is now silenced after the pro-oligarch faction was purged through the Ukraine war.

The implication is that US will be allowed to maintain their own sphere of interest if Russia was given a say.

However, the communists does not speak of multipolarity but rather of liberation, so you can be sure that given enough time, China would not even allow US to have the Monroe doctrine.

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The CPC abandoned the idea of global liberation decades ago. They are nationalists using communist theory to run a nation. If anything, China seems to push for multipolarity more than Russia given how hard it supports the UN and its existence as a blueprint for a multipolar world ruled by regional hegemons (as envisaged by FDR, just with China as the "first among equals" instead of America).

Say China succeeds at Reunification and becomes the greatest nation on the planet, with all critical geopolitical interests secured. Would the historically geocentric Chinese risk their golden age in an altruistic crusade for global liberation?

Jono said:

but the irony is that no country on earth is capable of building this kind of undersea tunnel except? China!!, you guess it.

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But what if they can? Well, it's not undersea tunnel. It is under sea floor tunnel. I read somewhere that European can already build an underground station with the depth of 1000 meter. Looking at the Miyako strait and Taiwan, maybe the sea doesn't deep enough, so they can build a tunnel under the sea floor? As Taiwan is not that far with those islands?

Minm said:

China would be smart to examine military technology from other countries, including Iran. The western propaganda that Iran is incapable of producing anything of value is just propaganda. But the Iranian government also has a habit of spreading fake news or hyperbole.

I hope that China isn't too arrogant to buy 15 of them just to check if there is anything useful to learn. But 15,000 is obviously untrue, I don't understand why anyone believes it. Iran also has a 5th generation fighter plane programme, if you believe what the government says.

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If China really wanted a look see, they could literally just ask the Russians for a handful and that’s all they would need.

But the Shahed has demonstrated nothing out of the ordinary in terms of of capabilities that would warrant special Chinese interest.

Brainsuker said:

But what if they can? Well, it's not undersea tunnel. It is under sea floor tunnel. I read somewhere that European can already build an underground station with the depth of 1000 meter. Looking at the Miyako strait and Taiwan, maybe the sea doesn't deep enough, so they can build a tunnel under the sea floor? As Taiwan is not that far with those islands?

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Be impossible to keep that a secret. And then China would just bomb it to prevent any leakages of dangerous weapons or people.

Brainsuker said:

I think the most significant lessons that China can learn from Ukraine conflict is that you can't finish a war without closing down Taiwan's supply route. As long as US and their allies can supply Taiwan side with weapons, etc, Taiwan struggle won't be end. The problem is, that Taiwan may have some secret supply route in underground that can connect their land with US base in Okinawa. And that problem will be hard to be resolved. Unless China has a missile / torpedo that can penetrate underground bunker under the sea.

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Ok ... not sure what you consumed, but this is one of the most stupid claim I read in recent years!

"Taiwan may have some secret supply route in underground that can connect their land with US base in Okinawa."

Otherwise I'll delete this as pure non-sense!

So, either you post some proof or reduce the dose of whatever you took... it doesn't do you well.

Brainsuker said:

But what if they can? Well, it's not undersea tunnel. It is under sea floor tunnel. I read somewhere that European can already build an underground station with the depth of 1000 meter. Looking at the Miyako strait and Taiwan, maybe the sea doesn't deep enough, so they can build a tunnel under the sea floor? As Taiwan is not that far with those islands?

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The problem is, they can't, even if they want to. The stakes involved are just too massive. Why?

#1 - Distance involved - As per your proposed Taiwan-Okinawa "tunnel", the total length of the "tunnel" itself would be at least 700 kilometers long. The longest tunnel in the world so far is the Delaware Aqueduct in northeastern US, and that's only 137 kilometers long.

700 kilometers of under-the-seabed "tunnel" isn't the same as 137 kilometers of underground tunnel, you know? The sheer technical and engineering difficulties involved would have been ginormous - Not even the "infrastructure monster" China managed to accomplish such a feat.

Plus, how do you even expect a construction of such scale to even go unnoticed at all?

#2 - Seismic activity - Taiwan and the entire Ryukyu Island Chain (or shall I say, the entirety of Japan) is located right along the tectonic fault lines of East Asia and Western Pacific.

Kindly refer to the following map taken from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster:

Notice how the Okinawa Plate, Philippine Plate and Yangtze Plate are pushing against each other? Taiwan and the Ryuku Islands are located right along this region - That's why they often have earthquakes. And this is the exact kind of unstable geography that this "tunnel" has to deal with.

Other than the distance of the "tunnel" involved, having to make sure that your under-the-seabed tunnel won't collapse in an active earthquake zone would only add even more complexity to the construction of this "tunnel".

#3 - Cost - For reference, the proposed Japan-Korea tunnel, which is around 180 kilometers long and passing through the Tsushima Strait, is estimated to cost around 170 billion USD.

Now, you wanna try to build that 700 kilometers of under-the-seabed "tunnel" - In an active seismic zone - Imagine how much cost would that entail?

Furthermore, how are you going to hide that massive amount of budget allocation for the construction of this "tunnel" from public scrutiny, to begin with?

Brainsuker said:

I think the most significant lessons that China can learn from Ukraine conflict is that you can't finish a war without closing down Taiwan's supply route. As long as US and their allies can supply Taiwan side with weapons, etc, Taiwan struggle won't be end. The problem is, that Taiwan may have some secret supply route in underground that can connect their land with US base in Okinawa. And that problem will be hard to be resolved. Unless China has a missile / torpedo that can penetrate underground bunker under the sea.

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This is an incredible post. Might actually be an early 2023 post of the year contender. Congratulations

Are we seriously entertaining this clearly nonsensical loony-toon crackpot idea?