that would quite obtuse to concentrate what little long range arty Taiwan has around penghu. the purpose of these long range arty is to give taiwan a credible way to threaten chinese beachhead. so exposing them for penghu is really...playing into the enemy's hands.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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now i think, most likely, that PLA will be able to obliterate Taiwan's air defense at the onset of battle, simply because it has done years of research on Taiwan. and since if is an island of limited size, i imagine there isn't a corner that has not been surveyed. also considering that Taiwan's assets are mostly fixed or semi-mobile facilities and systems, most of them would not survive past the first three days i wager.
however in the unlikely event that this does not transpire, and taiwan's air defense comes out intact, then i am afraid this war will turn into an awful slugfest. PLA might resort to just keep lobbing massive amount of missiles at Taiwan and any vessel that approaches Taiwan, while turning its war production on full throttle. eventually the same objective can be achieved (since there is simply not many places for Taiwan's anti air assets to hide) but at a much greater cost to both sides.
Not really agreeing with the idea regarding Korea.
Firstly, North Korea is a very useful card for China to play with, which is why Pyongyang and the Kim Dynasty are kept alive until today, and also the reason China would never allow North Korea to collapse. There are also lots of ways China could use North Korea for her own advantage whether there be a war or not, so why should China throw away that card so early and so easily?
Secondly, fighting a war is a very exhausting affair for just about any country in the world. Just look at how Russia is still struggling with Ukraine that has the backing of the entire NATO - And that is still without direct NATO intervention. I'm not sure how Russia would've hold up to an all-out NATO assault without relying on nuclear weapons to hold them off.
Could anyone have imagined how challenging and difficult it is for China to fight in a major war over Taiwan, especially with the near-absolute guarantee that AR over Taiwan would invite military intervention the US and their allies? Unless Xi Jinping wakes up today and sees that the PLA has twice the size and firepower of their American counterpart, I don't think anyone in the PLA CMC would be eager to open another front that would split their attention and focus away from Taiwan.
Thirdly, if anyone has observed carefully, South Korea is comparably more benign regarding the Taiwan issue than their Japanese neighbour and their American overlord. You don't often see Seoul making openly confrontational statements and moves against Beijing on Taiwan as much as Tokyo and Washington DC. Therefore, if South Korea can be pressured into not getting directly involved in a hot conflict with China over Taiwan and/or North Korea, why should China not take the opportunity?
Moreover, there is the problem with the Himalayan frontier - Notice how the Indian foreign policies have been getting more aligned with the West over the last couple of years? The IAF just sent a couple of their fighters for a joint exercise with the JASDF a couple days ago. This is coupled with so many Jai Hinds out there from bottom-to-top in India calling for war with China, and the recent suggestions by the Indian Foreign Minister that they may no longer abide by the One China Principle regarding Taiwan.
Therefore, does anyone believe that in case China is busy with AR over Taiwan, India would definitely keep their hands to themselves and absolutely not trying to open another front with China in the Himalayas - especially if it's the United States that is secretly backing New Delhi to do so in order to divide China's war effort from Taiwan?
Hell, we have all seen that as Russia is stranded in Ukraine, flames were set all across Russia's backyard (we call this 俄罗斯后院起火) - We have Azerbajian picking a fight with Armenia once again; We have Russia getting not so frenzy with her Central Asian neighbours (Kazakhstan in particular); and then there's Turkey who once again invaded Russia's ally, Syria.
So, if China opened a second front in Korea while still fighting in the first front over Taiwan, then suddenly India decided to open a third front in the Himalayas - Could China reasonably and effectively handle all three fronts simultaneously and achieve victory over all three frontiers without suffering catastrophic casualties on her own and/or causing nuclear war? I afraid not.
This is especially without Russian support and intervention on the Chinese side, as Russia would have been obsessed with security issues in Europe after the ongoing war is over anyways. The only thing I could see Russia be useful for is by dropping nukes on India, but that is something that's very unlikely going to happen.
All-in-all, China is very much alone, when you start to think about it...
Plus, I'm concerned that some of the guys here are getting overconfident with regards to China's warfighting capability against her peer opponents.
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To be honest with you - As long as those tunnel entrances at Hualien and Taitung aren't collapsed shut, I would like to remain cautiously optimistic on the matter.
Besides, the central and eastern regions of Taiwan is covered by dense, tall mountains. I believe that the major concern for the PLA command should include the possibility whereby not every crook-and-nanny across the entire island can be discovered in time before these ROCA SAM units unveil their camouflage and fire against PLAAF and PLANAF warplanes flying overhead. Therefore, this is one of the risks which I think the PLA should to be extra cautious of.
I think that slugfest should be expected by the PLA for a war like this, especially when we are speaking of fighting in dense urban areas and mountains where direct line-of-sight is very difficult. Of course, we could laugh at how incompetent and weak the ROC armed forces has become compared to 2 decades ago, but the intervention by the US military and JSDF certainly aren't laughing matter for the PLA.
This is also the main reason why China is massively expanding her PLAN Marine Corps in recent years, alongside taking many other (drastic) measures to buff up her armed forces as much as possible.
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What we think doesn't matter, just like what reddit thinks doesn't matter. What PLA thinks does matter, but that's out of you or I's concern isn't it?
Moreover, even if China does have 1.4 million men - then what?
What if there is a sudden massive natural disaster happening in China which is comparable to the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake? Where is the CPC going to ask for help if they already sent most of the PLA troops into war?
Besides, unlike China, pretty much every single male in South Korea has served in ROK military conscription for 2 years. This is on top of the 2.75 million active reserve military personnel available the ROK military. In comparison, how many Chinese males have served in the PLA for 2 years as mandatory conscripts?
Plus, South Korea isn't Ukraine, and unlike Ukrainians who can just escape to the west i.e. EU if they don't want to fight for the Kiev regime, South Koreans only have the Sea of Japan/East Sea and East China Sea/West Sea behind them. Who do you think would have fought harder?
Furthermore, just as I mentioned previously - What if there is a third front in the Himalayas? Where is China going to source PLA troops from to be deployed against the Indian troops, if much of them have been sent to Taiwan and Korea?
I'm seeing a huge possibility of the PLA getting stretched too thinly, which would be detrimental to China's war effort.
So what's you are trying to say is?
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bajingan
Senior Member
I just have question to ask, in the case of China-u.s war over taiwan, i would assume that trade between two nations would come to a complete halt, now given that the u.s is overly dependent on China
For example, China makes 90% of the ingredients for u.s antibiotics, not too mention consumer and commercial goods, medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and vital raw materials, but it also controls a huge share of the world’s shipping fleet and commercial shipbuilding capabilities.
Without Chinese imports not a u.s factory will run, not a retail outlet will have goods. Is it not an existential event for the country? I don't see how can the u.s avoid this situation absent of an alternative supply chain
Meanwhile China control the means of production inside her borders, she can purchase raw materials and energy from russia in case of naval blockade and can ensure that Chinese basic necessities are met, the u.s otoh would suffer hyperinflation and there will be shortages of basically everything that sustain a modern society
So would that be preferable for China to prolong the conflict? soon americans will be out on the street demanding end of the conflict, any govt crackdown will just lead to americans to start shooting at each other, civil war is not unthinkable
What do you guys think?
For example, China makes 90% of the ingredients for u.s antibiotics, not too mention consumer and commercial goods, medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and vital raw materials, but it also controls a huge share of the world’s shipping fleet and commercial shipbuilding capabilities.
Without Chinese imports not a u.s factory will run, not a retail outlet will have goods. Is it not an existential event for the country? I don't see how can the u.s avoid this situation absent of an alternative supply chain
Meanwhile China control the means of production inside her borders, she can purchase raw materials and energy from russia in case of naval blockade and can ensure that Chinese basic necessities are met, the u.s otoh would suffer hyperinflation and there will be shortages of basically everything that sustain a modern society
So would that be preferable for China to prolong the conflict? soon americans will be out on the street demanding end of the conflict, any govt crackdown will just lead to americans to start shooting at each other, civil war is not unthinkable
What do you guys think?
No. US is not that stupid that their very survival during wartime is dependent on chinese trade
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