Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Status
Not open for further replies.
B

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
U.S had moved some of its production to vietnam and south east asia. therefore the U.S-china trade volume decreased a little last year.

Made in Vietnam or Made in Mexico don't mean every parts of the final good is made there from start to finish.. If U.S reduced China trade volume, naturally other countries that are filling the U.S imports role will demand more trade from China because they needed parts and raw materials in order to produce U.S goods.

China is an indispensable trading country. It produces alot of stuff that many countries want at good price and fast.

Don't be surprised that a Made in Vietnam car exported to U.S contained 50% Chinese parts.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
So, if China opened a second front in Korea while still fighting in the first front over Taiwan, then suddenly India decided to open a third front in the Himalayas - Could China reasonably and effectively handle all three fronts simultaneously and achieve victory over all three frontiers without suffering catastrophic casualties on her own and/or causing nuclear war? I afraid not.
Click to expand...
Honestly, India opening up a third front wouldn't be bad. What is India realistically going to do? Take the whole province of Tibet? Take some border lands while praying that China doesn't counterattack? Launch missiles in south west China? In the grand strategy, defeating India will greatly strengthen China's hand on the world stage after reunification.
 
B

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
As Putin said, whoever mastered or dominated AI will become the next ruler of the world.

AI included unmanned intelligent machines, intelligent missiles that avoid decoys, smart radars and satellites that can detect enemy target quick

I rather control an AI semi-automated drone at my base as if I am playing a video game than to send real people to the battlefield.
 
bajingan

bajingan

Senior Member
a0011 said:
No. US is not that stupid that their very survival during wartime is dependent on chinese trade
Click to expand...
The u.s is very cunning indeed, it wouldn't be a hegemon if it were stupid, but so far i haven't see massive build up of alternative supply chain, in fact China-u.s trade keep breaking records, if it were serious in confronting China in hot war, it would start decoupling and building factories in south america long ago away from the sea lanes, why? Because China also control world shipping fleet

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
coolgod said:
Honestly, India opening up a third front wouldn't be bad. What is India realistically going to do? Take the whole province of Tibet? Take some border lands while praying that China doesn't counterattack? Launch missiles in south west China? In the grand strategy, defeating India will greatly strengthen China's hand on the world stage after reunification.
Click to expand...
Realistically speaking? Only those regions that India is claiming from China, plus any bits and pieces which they see convenient to take away from China that would give their military better geographical advantage over the PLA.

I think I have to add this on top of what I have said - Despite how the hubris by the Indian populace and politicans, smart and rational people in the higher levels of the Indian government still do exist, and I believe this extends to the higher levels of the Indian military as well.

Sure, having the Indian military doing deep infiltration into Tibet to station agents is definitely possible - Nobody can guard the entire length of the Sino-Indian border anyways. However, we all know that the Indian military is going to be served with HELL if they ever wish to fight their way across the entire Himalayan and Tibetan mountain ranges, so just forget about them taking Lhasa. Plus, the PLA would definitely blow up mountains and hills to halt their advances in the mountains, so I don't believe that there would be genuinely stupid higher-level commanders in the Indian military that would try that.

Therefore, for India opening a new front against China in the Himalayas, their main goals would be to:
1. Take over territories which they see as belonging to themselves + some extras,
2. Split China's attention away from Taiwan, AND
3. Keep considerable number of PLA troops, weapon platforms and equipment tied down on the Himalayan front and the Western Theater Command, therefore restricting their effectiveness into providing assistance to their forces fighting in Taiwan and the WestPac.

Notice how I bolded the #2 and #3, and set a bigger font size for #3. Those are going to be the major objective for a coordinated QUAD assault on China. To play its part in the QUAD, the Indian military just need to keep certain portions of the PLA busy with them and not being able to meaningfully contribute towards their war efforts on Taiwan, while the US, Japan, Australia and the rest of the Five Eyes would do the rest. In fact, there is no need for the Indian military to march towards Lhasa at all - They just need to present enough of a threat for the PLA to respond accordingly.

With large amount of PLA manpower and equipment already dedicated on the WestPac frontier, PLA would only have enough manpower and equipment to push the Indian forces out of Chinese territories, and, at most, reclaim all lost territories that India has taken from China from previous wars and skirmishes. The PLA certainly wouldn't have enough to continue with the invasion of the Indian proper, and that's something that New Delhi definitely knows.
 
Last edited:
A

a0011

New Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Can their F-16s carry strike payloads while being shot at by PLA SAMs and fighters? How many F-16s can they trade for artillery?

How many HIMARS can they buy with the backlog in Europe by the time the hammer falls?

Penghu also has a non negligible urban core.
Click to expand...
what point are you trying to make here?

Are you suggesting Taiwan will not contest a massive PLA firebase on Penghu which let me remind you is blowing the ROCA to oblivion and giving the PLA fire control over the entre southern half of Taiwan?

Penghu is gonna be taken first before any beach landing (if it even comes to that). Why stops the Taiwanese long range artillery from shell Penghu but also covering the potential landing sites at the same time.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Therefore, for India opening a new front against China in the Himalayas, their main goals would be to:
1. Take over territories which they see as belonging to themselves + some extras,
2. Split China's attention away from Taiwan, AND
3. Keep considerable number of PLA troops, weapon platforms and equipment tied down on the Himalayan front and the Western Theater Command, therefore restricting their effectiveness into providing assistance to their forces fighting in Taiwan and the WestPac.
Click to expand...
Assuming the case of an armed reunification and a direct conflict with US, then WWIII has already started, it is actually a blessing if India opens up a front in western China. Can't let India get off the hook scot-free while the world's two largest superpower duke it out, this is something both China and US would agree on.

India's actions would just make it easier for China to solve the border dispute since currently China doesn't have an excuse to use military force to solve the border dispute. China can easily keep a minimum # of troops and platforms in the WTC and use the rest to help with the ETC. Let India take the land they want, China can come back and clean up after Taiwan is reunified.
 
bajingan

bajingan

Senior Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Realistically speaking? Only those regions that India is claiming from China, plus any bits and pieces which they see convenient to take away from China that would give their military better geographical advantage over the PLA.

I think I have to add this on top of what I have said - Despite how the hubris by the Indian populace and politicans, smart and rational people in the higher levels of the Indian government still do exist, and I believe this extends to the higher levels of the Indian military as well.

Sure, having the Indian military doing deep infiltration into Tibet to station agents is definitely possible - Nobody can guard the entire length of the Sino-Indian border anyways. However, we all know that the Indian military is going to be served with HELL if they ever wish to fight their way across the entire Himalayan and Tibetan mountain ranges, so just forget about them taking Lhasa. Plus, the PLA would definitely blow up mountains and hills to halt their advances in the mountains, so I don't believe that there would be genuinely stupid higher-level commanders in the Indian military that would try that.

Therefore, for India opening a new front against China in the Himalayas, their main goals would be to:
1. Take over territories which they see as belonging to themselves + some extras,
2. Split China's attention away from Taiwan, AND
3. Keep considerable number of PLA troops, weapon platforms and equipment tied down on the Himalayan front and the Western Theater Command, therefore restricting their effectiveness into providing assistance to their forces fighting in Taiwan and the WestPac.

Notice how I bolded the #2 and #3, and set a bigger font size for #3. Those are going to be the major objective for a coordinated QUAD assault on China. To play its part in the QUAD, the Indian military just need to keep certain portions of the PLA busy with them and not being able to meaningfully contribute towards their war efforts on Taiwan, while the US, Japan, Australia and the rest of the Five Eyes would do the rest. In fact, there is no need for the Indian military to march towards Lhasa at all - They just need to present enough of a threat for the PLA to respond accordingly.

With large amount of PLA manpower and equipment already dedicated on the WestPac frontier, PLA would only have enough manpower and equipment to push the Indian forces out of Chinese territories, and, at most, reclaim all lost territories that India has taken from China from previous wars and skirmishes. The PLA certainly wouldn't have enough to continue with the invasion of the Indian proper, and that's something that New Delhi definitely knows.
Click to expand...
Normally China would be able to use pakistan to check any indian misadventures in tibet, by distracting it in nothern areas in kashmir, but recent cia coup in pakistan gave me doubt in China all-weather relationship with pakistan.

China should try to assist pakistani debt crisis so it won't be held hostage by the u.s

Alternatively China can also arm and fund the numerous separatist movements inside india from khalistan, nagaland and the maoists. China can easily smuggle weapons and money through porous myanmar-india border, and it would be justified since india is actively supporting taiwanese separatists.

In fact the prospect of China goes all out in supporting indian separatists is the reason why i think its likely india will stay neutral in taiwan conflict
 
A

a0011

New Member
Registered Member
Few have ever fought a 2 front war and won. I think you guys' imagination are getting a little too wild here.

I can't see a strong case for either Koreas nor India to directly participate unless China is facing total defeat OR the CPC has collapsed from an internal coup.

Diplomatic moves and border posturing sure. But why would India join in when they are already guaranteed to be the winner in any conflict btwn US and China over taiwan. India has no skin in the game. They should want US and China to destroy each other and maybe join in at the very last min only when US is about to win.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
a0011 said:
Few have ever fought a 2 front war and won. I think you guys' imagination are getting a little too wild here.

I can't see a strong case for either Koreas nor India to directly participate unless China is facing total defeat OR the CPC has collapsed from an internal coup.

Diplomatic moves and border posturing sure. But why would India join in when they are already guaranteed to be the winner in any conflict btwn US and China over taiwan. India has no skin in the game. They should want US and China to destroy each other and maybe join in at the very last min only when US is about to win.
Click to expand...
India doesn't have the capability to meaningfully participate in a war against China even if they wanted to. Nor do they have the capability to be a winner, as they can't be a winner even with US or Chinese GDPs cut in half since their entire economy outside sustinence agriculture depends on imported products and components.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top