Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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bajingan

Senior Member
I would like to add if there exists sane leaders in india who truly cares about india wellbeing and not being an anglo sepoys, they would think long and hard about involving india in unprovoked hostilities against China during taiwan AR

They would think hard about what happen in the aftermath of taiwan conflict, China will always be there, even if China suffered defeat (God forbid) india will have a permanently hostile China next door still multiple times more powerful than india, the u.s is faar away and has a proven track record of dropping its ally like a used condom when its no longer useful

China from then on will treat india as an existential threat and will no longer has any reservations about arming and supporting numerous separatist movements from kashmir, potential indian jihadists against hindus, to maoists to the teeth, in fact modi extreme hindu nationalism will turn india into a jihadist paradise in the coming years, China can make india into another syria on steroids
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
I would like to add if there exists sane leaders in india who truly cares about india wellbeing and not being an anglo sepoys, they would think long and hard about involving india in unprovoked hostilities against China during taiwan AR

They would think hard about what happen in the aftermath of taiwan conflict, China will always be there, even if China suffered defeat (God forbid) india will have a permanently hostile China next door still multiple times more powerful than india, the u.s is faar away and has a proven track record of dropping its ally like a used condom when its no longer useful

China from then on will treat india as an existential threat and will no longer has any reservations about arming and supporting numerous separatist movements from kashmir, potential indian jihadists against hindus, to maoists to the teeth, in fact modi extreme hindu nationalism will turn india into a jihadist paradise in the coming years, China can make india into another syria on steroids
India always being a neighbour to China didn't stop China from getting into the war with India in 1962. But you can't discuss an Indian invasion of Tibet without considering Pakistan at all. If they see a chance to take the Indian administered Kashmir, they will take it, regardless of who is in charge in Islamabad. China won't need to defeat the Indian army, which might take a lot of effort and many lives. But in air warfare the Chinese technological superiority will be more significant.

If India opens a second front China only needs to defend the Himalayas. It's not a big deal if the Indians occupy a few mountains for a few years. Destroy the Indian air force and use ballistic missiles to hit India's oil import port terminals and oil refineries. Then Pakistan can do the rest while China focuses on the Pacific theatre.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
India will simply stage military exercises in the border to keep WTC forces pinned down so that they cannot reinforce other theaters.

India won't go to war with China unless China is in deep sht against its war against US and is seriously losing. Which in that case, China has bigger things to worry about than India playing tricks on Tibet lol
 

tphuang

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Not really agreeing with the idea regarding Korea.

Firstly, North Korea is a very useful card for China to play with, which is why Pyongyang and the Kim Dynasty are kept alive until today, and also the reason China would never allow North Korea to collapse. There are also lots of ways China could use North Korea for her own advantage whether there be a war or not, so why should China throw away that card so early and so easily?

Secondly, fighting a war is a very exhausting affair for just about any country in the world. Just look at how Russia is still struggling with Ukraine that has the backing of the entire NATO - And that is still without direct NATO intervention. I'm not sure how Russia would've hold up to an all-out NATO assault without relying on nuclear weapons to hold them off.

Could anyone have imagined how challenging and difficult it is for China to fight in a major war over Taiwan, especially with the near-absolute guarantee that AR over Taiwan would invite military intervention the US and their allies? Unless Xi Jinping wakes up today and sees that the PLA has twice the size and firepower of their American counterpart, I don't think anyone in the PLA CMC would be eager to open another front that would split their attention and focus away from Taiwan.

Thirdly, if anyone has observed carefully, South Korea is comparably more benign regarding the Taiwan issue than their Japanese neighbour and their American overlord. You don't often see Seoul making openly confrontational statements and moves against Beijing on Taiwan as much as Tokyo and Washington DC. Therefore, if South Korea can be pressured into not getting directly involved in a hot conflict with China over Taiwan and/or North Korea, why should China not take the opportunity?

Moreover, there is the problem with the Himalayan frontier - Notice how the Indian foreign policies have been getting more aligned with the West over the last couple of years? The IAF just sent a couple of their fighters for a joint exercise with the JASDF a couple days ago. This is coupled with so many Jai Hinds out there from bottom-to-top in India calling for war with China, and the recent suggestions by the Indian Foreign Minister that they may no longer abide by the One China Principle regarding Taiwan.

Therefore, does anyone believe that in case China is busy with AR over Taiwan, India would definitely keep their hands to themselves and absolutely not trying to open another front with China in the Himalayas - especially if it's the United States that is secretly backing New Delhi to do so in order to divide China's war effort from Taiwan?

Hell, we have all seen that as Russia is stranded in Ukraine, flames were set all across Russia's backyard (we call this 俄罗斯后院起火) - We have Azerbajian picking a fight with Armenia once again; We have Russia getting not so frenzy with her Central Asian neighbours (Kazakhstan in particular); and then there's Turkey who once again invaded Russia's ally, Syria.

So, if China opened a second front in Korea while still fighting in the first front over Taiwan, then suddenly India decided to open a third front in the Himalayas - Could China reasonably and effectively handle all three fronts simultaneously and achieve victory over all three frontiers without suffering catastrophic casualties on her own and/or causing nuclear war? I afraid not.

This is especially without Russian support and intervention on the Chinese side, as Russia would have been obsessed with security issues in Europe after the ongoing war is over anyways. The only thing I could see Russia be useful for is by dropping nukes on India, but that is something that's very unlikely going to happen.

All-in-all, China is very much alone, when you start to think about it...

Plus, I'm concerned that some of the guys here are getting overconfident with regards to China's warfighting capability against her peer opponents.

China will definitely get North Korea involved in the war if US & Japan get involved. NK would gladly send ballistic missiles into Japan. Frankly, don't laugh off NK's Air Force. They were able to send in drones that SK couldn't detect and were able to scramble over 200 aircraft against SK. I see no good reason in keeping NK out. China should also try to use Russian military bases or operate PLARF brigades from Russia if Russians are willing.

I'm not concerned about Indians at all. there is Pakistan for India to deal with. On top of that, the power difference between China and India is just so huge that WTC will have no problem dealing with India.
 

Biscuits

Major
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I've earlier already counted out India completely without anyone being able to refute it simply through geography.

The Himalayas are a natural fortress. 50k PLA troops there can hold out against a million Indians if needed. Its all valley choke points and impassable mountain ranges. Numerical superiority only works if you can spread out the units.

China is not so stupid that they will counter invade India and try to hold the Northern India region flatlands while US is full tilt doing its own attack, allowing Indians to bring their full army to actually fight.

Beijing will just sit on the chokepoints using an army of 50-100k, which is peanuts for the PLA, while droning Indian infrastructure.

Once US attack has been sufficiently dealt with, only then would China swing around and hit India both from Pakistan direction using heavy armor and from Himalayas direction using rapid light combat units.

It will be national suicide for India.

The only geographically credible path of invasion for India into China is to actually defeat Pakistan first, and then roll in through the Xinjiang Pakistan corridor. But that is not viable for obvious reasons.

Once again, I invite anyone who wants to refute the idea that the Himalayas do not support an Indian million man rush to speak up if they have any counterpoints. If you have a valid point I'd be interested in hearing it.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
I've earlier already counted out India completely without anyone being able to refute it simply through geography.

The Himalayas are a natural fortress. 50k PLA troops there can hold out against a million Indians if needed. Its all valley choke points and impassable mountain ranges. Numerical superiority only works if you can spread out the units.

China is not so stupid that they will counter invade India and try to hold the Northern India region flatlands while US is full tilt doing its own attack, allowing Indians to bring their full army to actually fight.

Beijing will just sit on the chokepoints using an army of 50-100k, which is peanuts for the PLA, while droning Indian infrastructure.

Once US attack has been sufficiently dealt with, only then would China swing around and hit India both from Pakistan direction using heavy armor and from Himalayas direction using rapid light combat units.

It will be national suicide for India.

The only geographically credible path of invasion for India into China is to actually defeat Pakistan first, and then roll in through the Xinjiang Pakistan corridor. But that is not viable for obvious reasons.

Once again, I invite anyone who wants to refute the idea that the Himalayas do not support an Indian million man rush to speak up if they have any counterpoints. If you have a valid point I'd be interested in hearing it.

Alternately, China could just rig up explosives or chuck missiles to cause damage on roads deep within the mountains. Other measures could include blowing up the side of a mountain to cause a rockslide to block certain areas. The Indian soldiers can enjoy removing boulders or filling up the huge missing chuck of the road while under PLA fire.
 

tphuang

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Alternately, China could just rig up explosives or chuck missiles to cause damage on roads deep within the mountains. Other measures could include blowing up the side of a mountain to cause a rockslide to block certain areas. The Indian soldiers can enjoy removing boulders or filling up the huge missing chuck of the road while under PLA fire.

Nah, PLAGF won't be doing that much. Give them a few UCAVs and PCH191 battalions out there. You add in a couple of J-10C brigades with a small number of KJ-500 and other ISR aircraft. China pretty much with have superior ISR (with the help of their satellites).

I'd be more concerned with Indians taking free shots at shipping coming through Indian Ocean to East Asia. For that scenario, China needs to get a plan ready to hit Indian navy in case they get too aggressive. With the help of PN, it shouldn't be too hard. But I would say they need to do more joint exercises with Pakistani military.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Contrary to the propaganda that the US needs no one, the US's strength comes from having allies. The US needs its allies to spread the all pain it would suffer if it acted alone. That's what they're for. Today on the news Germany won't send tanks to Ukraine unless the US sends M1s first. Why? Because Germany says they would be more vulnerable and suffer from Russian retaliation more than the US especially if the US didn't send tanks which they're not planning to do.

Look at how much money they're spending to arm Ukraine. The US courting allies against China is also about spreading the pain so they don't suffer the consequences alone. And they have to buy US arms to counter China... Do the US's dirty work and get Americans rich at the same time.

The US is trying to have China feel psychologically surrounded and thus hoping China will surrender. Their willingness to go to war is questionable especially since they're saying Russians are paper tigers and yet still not sending their own soldiers to fight Russia. All of sudden they'll be there from the start for Taiwan especially when Taiwan is sending all its tech that the US need to the US to make? All of China's problems with the US and trouble-making allies hiding behind the US go away if China takes down the US. It doesn't mean war.

Money spent on advancing Chinese technology will go a longer way than going to war. Beijing should've thought about this before instead of waiting for the US banning selling China technology first. China might have to do both now. The West will be spending a trillion dollars on arming Ukraine. Breaking the US's command on technology in the world will take down the US technologically and thus economically and when that happens all of the US's allies will be sucking up to China as much as they did the US especially in Asia and including Taiwan. Leading the world in technology is not a war crime but I'm sure the US will be able to spin it as one but at least any civilized person will see the US as the evil.
 
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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I just have question to ask, in the case of China-u.s war over taiwan, i would assume that trade between two nations would come to a complete halt
US already abandoned diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, terminated the US-Taiwan mutual defense treaty, and already refusing to sell it high-end toys like F-35s, THAAD, advanced submarines. What makes you think US will sacrifice it's entire economy over Taiwan? At best, US will do targeted sanctions on China, but completing halting all trade is ridiculous... US would get hurt in the process too, and what's the point? US isn't going to send troops to defend Taiwan, it's going to be alone just like Ukraine. US will provide ISR, weapons, aid, but I doubt US would send troops to shed blood, and will likely use Taiwan's defeat as a rallying cry for Asian NATO 2.0.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
I would like to add if there exists sane leaders in india who truly cares about india wellbeing and not being an anglo sepoys, they would think long and hard about involving india in unprovoked hostilities against China during taiwan AR

They would think hard about what happen in the aftermath of taiwan conflict, China will always be there, even if China suffered defeat (God forbid) india will have a permanently hostile China next door still multiple times more powerful than india, the u.s is faar away and has a proven track record of dropping its ally like a used condom when its no longer useful

China from then on will treat india as an existential threat and will no longer has any reservations about arming and supporting numerous separatist movements from kashmir, potential indian jihadists against hindus, to maoists to the teeth, in fact modi extreme hindu nationalism will turn india into a jihadist paradise in the coming years, China can make india into another syria on steroids

and China would easily "destroy" India by doing something to the sources of main rivers to India (and holy too) Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra.
 
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