Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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If it was choked off today, the West will experience high inflation. Their option is to move the assembly line and manufacturing companies to South East Asia or Mexico. China's trade volume in those countries will increase since they demand parts and raw materials to make those goods for the West.
Vietnam produced alot of goods for U.S in recent years but alot of parts and raw materials were came from China. One example would be Vinfast wants to sell their car in U.S. A car has tens of thousands of parts. Probably 50% of the parts including the EV battery are imported from China.
So there will be jobs.
bajingan
Senior Member
I just wondering, i am really curious to be honest, everybody talks about how the u.s, japan, australia and even possibly south korea is going to tag team China in taiwan armed reunification scenario, but nobody talks about how north korea might react in such a big war in east asia,
I wrote about this on breaking news thread, NK is the only country in which China has nato style article 2 defence treaty, so on paper NK is obliged to join the war on China side as taiwan is recognised by NK as China territory especially if the war is instigated by the u.s and japan, so staying neutral is not on option for NK if they follow The China-DPRK Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, to the letter. This war is also existential to NK i think, because if China is defeated, they will lose their only patron and economic lifeline, not to mention they will be next on the chopping block, so i would say neutrality is not on the table for them
So what do you guys think NK involvement in taiwan AR could be? If SK militarily involved, full armed reunification on korean peninsula? if SK stays neutral, harrasing japan with hwasong cruise missile attacks?
I wrote about this on breaking news thread, NK is the only country in which China has nato style article 2 defence treaty, so on paper NK is obliged to join the war on China side as taiwan is recognised by NK as China territory especially if the war is instigated by the u.s and japan, so staying neutral is not on option for NK if they follow The China-DPRK Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, to the letter. This war is also existential to NK i think, because if China is defeated, they will lose their only patron and economic lifeline, not to mention they will be next on the chopping block, so i would say neutrality is not on the table for them
So what do you guys think NK involvement in taiwan AR could be? If SK militarily involved, full armed reunification on korean peninsula? if SK stays neutral, harrasing japan with hwasong cruise missile attacks?
China does, the taiwan thing, need to get done next !!
Without Mao, it will be 2 problems instead of 1 !!
I think there is more recent development in NVG that removed the illuminator !!
Yes, I like the idea of taking Penghu and the deploy rockets and artillery there before taking taiwan proper !!
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Quite a few mistakes to unpick here.
When you say IR illuminator, you actually mean IR lasers. IR illustrators are basically high powered IR flashlights and can be laser based, but are more commonly LEDs. They can be very useful in very niche scenarios, such as punching through a photonic barrier like a street light between you and your target that would effectively obscure your target otherwise, and brightening the background to reduce the size of your aiming IR laser through your NODs (see video below for demonstrations). But you won’t need IR illuminators with even Gen2+ NODs unless you are literally fighting in an environment with zero ambient light.
IR lasers are primarily used for CQB engagements of less than 200m for quick reaction times. Beyond that range, your IR laser would bloom to such a huge size you are basically just doing suppression fire, especially without IR illuminator compensation as most IR illuminators won’t have the range to do anything beyond 100m (which is where laser based IR illuminators come into their own). Most military IR lasers and IR illuminators comes packaged in a single combined unit, but they can be sold and used separately.
Most red dot sights have night vision modes to allow you to do passive aiming with NODs, but most such setups are sub optimal to be honest, and you will struggle to accurately hit human sized targets beyond 150m, and you really need dual tube night vision and risers on your red dot to use it properly. Good for dedicated night fighting setups, but sub-optimal for general purposes rifle setup, and dual tuned NODs are obviously more expensive than single tubed.
Below is a good video to give you an idea of what night shooting looks like with lasers, illuminators and red dots.
All of the above applies mainly to how western militaries do night fighting.
I actually think China is way ahead of the game when it comes to night fighting against peer and near-peer opponents.
Unlike western militaries that prefer high end IIT NODs army wide with IR laser-illuminators and/or red dots for aiming; China has gone the route of issuing cheap digital NODs to most troopers for
night time navigation (why PLA soldiers jokingly call their digital units night time walking aids), with a few scouts per squad getting proper dedicated IIT NODs and thermals for better long ranged situational awareness and IIT and Thermal rifle scopes for their troops for actual aiming. You have worse general situational awareness just due to having fewer high end NODs for all round observation per squad, but far superior engagement range and aim once engaged.
You can also massively change that equation with thermals. Chinese thermal vision tech is right up there with the best the west has to offer. If you dual mount even a cheap gen2+ IIT NOD with a high end thermal, you have way better situational awareness than the best gen3+ IIT dual tube NODs (this is why combined IIT and thermal units are the future of night vision).
IITs are not magic, they just allow you to see almost as good in night as day, but if something is well camouflaged, you will have just as hard a time spotting it with NODs as you would during the day with your MK1 eyeball. It’s just most wildlife move around at night whereas they would stay still during the day, so that makes it much easier to spot them, but people are not so stupid. Thermals are ‘magic’ in that the best camouflage and fieldcraft won’t do you much good against thermals. So, throw in some helmet mounted thermals and your typical squad using mostly cheap digital night vision plus dedicated night scopes will have far superior situational awareness and combat effectiveness as an enemy squad all with the very best IIT dual tubes and IR lasers while coming in at the same if not lower cost overall.
Now, you might have some zero creep from uninstalling and reinstalling the night scope, but while you won’t be winning any shooting competitions due to this, it should still be perfectly useable for combat (the whole point of pict rail and QD mounts after all), and almost certainly more precise and longer ranged than either IR laser or red dot aiming.
Another problem with IR laser aiming is that it can get very distracting, even overwhelming, if you got dozens or even hundred of guys all waving their IR lasers around.
We should still look at things accurately. Threats of invasion are not the same as guarantee of invasion. The USSR threatened to invade west Germany many times, yet the cold war came to an end without that happening.
If US actually pulls off a Taiwan invasion or even a broader invasion of China's periphery in the SCS and ECS as well, depends on way more factors than some US politicians being hardliners and making threats.
I think the most telling point against an invasion is the fact that US did not do it before when China was weak. Back in the early 2000s and 1990s, China could only use tactical nukes and diesel subs to defend itself if US came at them. Yet US didn't risk it back then.
While back then, US threatened an attack because they were strong, now they're doing it to distract from weakness at home. While if the right mix of warmongers and militarists rose to power in Washington, provocation can turn into a real war, it is far from guaranteed that this will happen.
Besides using its industry to continue the porcupine strategy which deters direct war, China's strategy should be to set up the global chessboard to prevent militarists from taking Washington. That means making the right amount of threats and moves, but also appropriate concessions when needed.
China needs to leave enough of a lifeline to US so that the militarists don't successfully convince everyone else that they're in an "use it or lose it" scenario. At the same time, they can also use profitable proxy conflicts to channel the militarists away from thinking in terms of total war, which has the effect of making them more unpopular in the eyes of the population.
I think NK will be involved, but SK will not be. Why are you posting this in breaking news thread? Do you know it's for breaking news?
bajingan
Senior Member
Thanks for your reply, no i didn't post the whole question on breaking news thread, i was only mentioned on that thread the existence of a China-NK defence treaty in response to a news about a u.s general interview on ft about setting up war theatre in japan and phillipines
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