Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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discspinner

Junior Member
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a0011 said:
with that attitude, forget about AR.

No AR implies you are ready to accept what the Taiwanese want which is formal independence.
With that you better come to terms with the fact that US and its vassals will continue to contain China by using Taiwan's strategic location within the 1st Island Chain.

We can't have it both ways, 23 millions people fucked for a short term or 1.4 billion fucked living like second class citizens under Uncle Sam's watch. This decade is an inflection point. Either China successfully breaks out of US strategic containment or we cope with it due to our cowardice and inability to spill "Chinese blood". The same "Chinese" who at a whim would rather see Japan + US fuck over 1.4 billion of us.

They are not our people. They may look like us, talk like us and eat the same food. But 70 years is a long time for the national psyche to change. Look at what 99 years did to the Hongkongers.

I've been fortunate enough to have lived the majority of my life in the west. Most of my closest friends have Taiwan and Hongkong roots. And trust me they do not see themselves as Chinese. So we should accept this and stop pretending. It only took 23 years for Ukrainians to reject all that is Soviet about them. Time has a unique ability to change people's perspective. However most of Chinese people seem to be stuck in the 1970s and it's our propaganda that will preventing us from acting decisively if it comes to a shooting war.
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This type of thinking is way way outdated. 30 years ago, the issue of Taiwan really was about the right of self determination. Today, Taiwan is more about competition between competing superpowers than anything else. But for practical purposes, the island's geographic location is secondary to the economic arena. There will be no quicker way to turn the entire the world (including France, Germany, etc) against the US, Japan, Great Britain, and maybe South Korea, than if the 1st Island Chain were to be 'activated' to choke China's trade off with the rest of the world.

Fortunately, we are merely years away (2030) before the attention of humanity will turn to the moon, where the real competition for leadership of mankind in the 21st century will turn towards.
 
A

a0011

New Member
Registered Member
discspinner said:
This type of thinking is way way outdated. 30 years ago, the issue of Taiwan really was about the right of self determination. Today, Taiwan is more about competition between competing superpowers than anything else. But for practical purposes, the island's geographic location is secondary to the economic arena. There will be no quicker way to turn the entire the world (including France, Germany, etc) against the US, Japan, Great Britain, and maybe South Korea, than if the 1st Island Chain were to be 'activated' to choke China's trade off with the rest of the world.

Fortunately, we are merely years away (2030) before the attention of humanity will turn to the moon, where the real competition for leadership of mankind in the 21st century will turn towards.
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What is this "the entire world" you are referring to.

South Korea, India, Vietnam and Japan are practically begging the US to choke China off.

The MSM in the west has done an excellent job in the past 5 years (partially due to covid) painting China as the world's villain. If popular public opinions are to prevail, most of the West (Including France and Germany) would already have de-coupled from China. If not for the Ukraine War and a global economic recession.

So who else in "the rest of the world" is going to complain if the US does manage to chokes China off? Perhaps some countries in the ME and Africa, but collectively they do not have much political weight. Else the US would not have bombed every Muslim country and Israel would not be so bold to bomb Palestinians whenever they feel like. Who else is left to complain? India lol?

One of the main goals of the BRI is to seek alternative means to manage China's maritime trade dependency.

If the politicians from the West get what they want and de-couple from China. China's economic lifeline will be trading with developing countries. To close the first island chain would be disastrous.

Lastly, your comment about the moon was so far off the mark I won't bother addressing it. I encourage you to re-read it and think abut what you just said.
 
mossen

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
a0011 said:
They are not our people. They may look like us, talk like us and eat the same food. But 70 years is a long time for the national psyche to change. Look at what 99 years did to the Hongkongers.
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Steve Hsu, who is Taiwanese-American, says that people underestimate the possibility of a military coup inside Taiwan in the event of a serious conflict. His mother's family were in the KMT military. Her father was even a general if memory serves so they still have a foot in that door. I think the Taiwanese military knows that a serious conflict with China cannot be won. The question is if gaining control of the island is worth basically destroying trillions of export income (which would happen if the entire West + its puppets instituted a massive trade tariff regime against China and possibly even a blockade). Look at companies like BYD who are now expanding to Europe and Australia. That's just one example out of thousands. All that would go up in smoke.

China faces a hard choice. Nobody wants to be seen as soft but it may in fact be smarter to bide for more time.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
a0011 said:
South Korea, India, Vietnam and Japan are practically begging the US to choke China off.
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How do you "choke off" a country with nuclear weapons?
a0011 said:
The MSM in the west has done an excellent job in the past 5 years (partially due to covid) painting China as the world's villain. If popular public opinions are to prevail, most of the West (Including France and Germany) would already have de-coupled from China.
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There is no decoupling from China. They might as well decouple from oxygen, they'll have an easier time of it.
mossen said:
The question is if gaining control of the island is worth basically destroying trillions of export income (which would happen if the entire West + its puppets instituted a massive trade tariff regime against China and possibly even a blockade).
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That is just impossible. They would live in caves if it weren't for trade with China. China is not a choice, it is a necessity.
mossen said:
China faces a hard choice. Nobody wants to be seen as soft but it may in fact be smarter to bide for more time.
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Why are you talking like China's about to launch an invasion? Could we come back to reality please?
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
mossen said:
The question is if gaining control of the island is worth basically destroying trillions of export income (which would happen if the entire West + its puppets instituted a massive trade tariff regime against China and possibly even a blockade). Look at companies like BYD who are now expanding to Europe and Australia. That's just one example out of thousands. All that would go up in smoke.

China faces a hard choice. Nobody wants to be seen as soft but it may in fact be smarter to bide for more time.
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Except China doesn’t face a hard choice because there is no option. The US is looking to start a conflict with China while trying to lie for the 10,000th time that China should stop worrying.

Lieutenant General James Bierman, commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) and of Marine Forces Japan, told the Financial Times in an interview.

“Why have we achieved the level of success we’ve achieved in Ukraine? A big part of that has been because after Russian aggression in 2014 and 2015, we earnestly got after preparing for future conflict: training for the Ukrainians, pre-positioning of supplies, identification of sites from which we could operate support, sustain operations.
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“We call that setting the theatre. And we are setting the theatre in Japan, in the Philippines, in other locations.”
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Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
mossen said:
The question is if gaining control of the island is worth basically destroying trillions of export income (which would happen if the entire West + its puppets instituted a massive trade tariff regime against China and possibly even a blockade). Look at companies like BYD who are now expanding to Europe and Australia. That's just one example out of thousands. All that would go up in smoke.
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The West and their vassals already abandoned diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, so "Trillions" of tariffs/sanctions is highly unlikely. What's more likely is some targeted sanctions, as West doesn't want to overly hurt itself in the process, knowing Taiwan is a lost cause (hence abandoned diplomatic recogntion), but they still have to tout some semblance of pro-democracy/"standing up to China".

I agree with your sentiment though. Best China wait until US is quagmired in Eastern Europe and Middle East, then reduce Taiwan to rubble, and rebuild the world simultaneously. Any earlier risks disruption of China's rise, and any later will miss the period where entire world is already going to shit, so why not join in on the fun while US is distracted elsewhere.
 
A

a0011

New Member
Registered Member
solarz said:
Russia's gas stoves say hi.
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Even with their gas card, Russia is choked off 9 ways to Sunday. Russian companies cannot conduct intl trade/business any more than a state owned North Korea company can. They are currently cut off from an overwhelming majority of the world's major economies. Sure China & India buys their gas, lets see if that's enough of a lifeline for them to even have a future.

We are sitting in a make believe world if we insist the West cannot de-couple from China the same way it did with Russia. Sure the cost will be 10x higher and the toll on their working class tremendous. However to laugh it off with your typical pompous arrogance is to underestimate the resiliencies of our enemies. Never underestimate any opponent. Taiwan or USA.
 
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