Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just release flares on their aircraft engines next times. Bonus points if you add some titanium pieces inside. Would love to see how their engines would fare against that..

Also be ready with a salvage ship. Salvage it, study it for a year or so and then "generously" return it back
No need to be so high-tech.

Just install a box and a dispenser at the rear end of each of the interceptor fighters and fill the box with coins.

We have already seen some (usually middle-aged and elderly) people in China who threw coin into the engines of civilian aircrafts before boarding, because they thought that doing so would bring them good luck for their journey.

The PLA should do the same - Fly in front of their aircrafts, and release those coins into their engines. I'm sure that their American, British, Australian and Canadian counterparts would be thankful for the PLA pilots' actions of "wishing them well".
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
well, I hear that China, or at least the netizens in China, has been using social media to win over the hearts and minds of the younger generation in Taiwan. The message is that China is not a despicable monster, it is even a cute Panda!!
Coupled with strong Chinese military responses to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the subsequent US 7th Fleet staying far off, the TW population begins to realize that they have been fooled by the DPP for years. That war is an imminent possibility if TW keeps pursuing the present track and the US is unlikely to intervene physically.
soft hand: use culture to attract.
high hand: use the military threat to warn and ward off separatism.
yes, there is a slight glimmer of hope for peaceful reunification, which will be great news for all Chinese people.
welcome 2023.
 

a0011

New Member
Registered Member
I'm a bit sad.
Alarm bells already go off in my head. Thinking Russia vs Ukraine scenario might eventually repeat
"I don't want to see Chinese people fight Chinese people."

Chinese people have slaughtered each other for countless centuries. The 21st will not be an exception.

For the sanity of future PLA combatants', it's best to not drink our own koolaid (propaganda) and call the modern Taiwanese people our "Chinese compatriots." A majority of the population on Taiwan do not take this view and the Ukraine war clearly showed how poorly this served the Russians when they drank their own koolaid believing they and the Ukrainian as part of the same people.

It's hard enough for solider to kill another human being. No need to make it harder by instilling unnecessary propaganda.
The fact that Taiwan Island is part of China alone should be sufficient motivation for the PLA.

Lets not confuse them with this "Chinese people" idea.
 
An important piece of news that flew under the radar. The Hegemon is taking over the defense, national security and economic departments of Taiwanese government. There will not be a peaceful unification.

郭正亮 talked about it starting 6:50
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RYO NAKAMURA, Nikkei staff writer
December 16, 2022 01:14 JST

TOKYO -- The U.S. plans to send government employees to Taiwan for two-year stints through a new fellowship program starting next fall, seeking to encourage closer bilateral cooperation as China ramps up pressure on Taipei.

Fellows will spend their first year learning Mandarin Chinese and other relevant subjects, followed by a year working with a government agency or parliamentary office.

The program, under the heading of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, is included in this year's National Defense Authorization Act, which sets military funding levels for the fiscal year ending September 2023.

The U.S. has sent government employees to Taiwan for months at a time, but longer-term programs like this are rare, a congressional source said.

Executive Director Richard Pearson of the Western Pacific Fellowship Project, a nonprofit that is expected to help manage the program, discussed the plans with Nikkei.

If the NDAA passes this month or soon after, the organization is "in a position to launch the program in early 2023 and to welcome the first class of fellows to Taiwan to begin language training in September 2023, but appropriate preparation needs to begin now," Pearson said.

The Senate will vote on the NDAA as early as Thursday evening, a Senate source told Nikkei. President Biden is expected to sign it into law soon after the Senate approval.

Applicants will be recruited from a broad range of agencies related to economic and security issues, as well as the armed forces, but not intelligence services, according to Pearson. Around 10 fellows are expected to be sent each year, though the total will initially be in the single digits.

During a visit to Taiwan in late November to early December, "we met with NGOs, government officials, legislators, media and supporters," Pearson said. "We found very strong support for the proposed fellowship program and a desire that the Taiwan Fellowship Act be passed this month and the fellowship program launched next year."

With tensions with China over Taiwan expected to last for some time to come, Washington looks to provide more support to Taipei through exchanges like this along with visits by lawmakers. Familiarizing government employees with Taipei's decision-making processes and policy development will help the two sides coordinate, the thinking goes.

The program will deepen ties between Washington and Taipei by "supporting American public servants as they benefit from the wealth of knowledge, culture and trade that Taiwan contributes to the global community -- creating a stronger, more resilient U.S.-Taiwan partnership and supporting our nation's commitment to the Indo-Pacific region," Sen. Ed Markey, a sponsor of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, said in a statement.

President Joe Biden's administration has taken other steps to encourage bilateral exchanges. Guidelines issued by the U.S. government in April 2021 encourage holding working-level talks in federal buildings, as well as allow meetings to be held at Taiwan's representative office in Washington.

The Taiwan Travel Act enacted in 2018 encourages visits between the U.S. and Taiwan by officials at all levels, including cabinet members. During previous President Donald Trump's administration, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar traveled to Taiwan in 2020, angering China.

Colonization and corruption facilitated by colluding local factions incompetent at governance in the first place.
 

BoeingEngineer

Junior Member
Registered Member
For the sanity of future PLA combatants', it's best to not drink our own koolaid (propaganda) and call the modern Taiwanese people our "Chinese compatriots." A majority of the population on Taiwan do not take this view and the Ukraine war clearly showed how poorly this served the Russians when they drank their own koolaid believing they and the Ukrainian as part of the same people.

Yes, Taiwan are not Chinese. The 23 million people there means nothing.

Only the island matters for its location !!
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
On my other post, this is why you need to make high priced items like carrier, destroyer, submarine or fighter jet as its own independent command center that allow for controlling of "unmanned partners". Rather than 5 vs 5 people at a bar massive fight, one of the group called out their bodyguards(unmanned partners), the fight suddenly turned into a 15 vs 5. it is almost a sure victory. Without this advantage, like this article said, the China's navy will be in shamble while only two U.S carrier group sunk.

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If a war was fought today, I would just have the navy and land rocket launchers sitting at home, only launching missile without adventuring out. Just flattening everything except for the shopping centers or schools..

But if you have unmanned partners then you can go anywhere as far as Guam or Hawaii.
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
On my other post, this is why you need to make high priced items like carrier, destroyer, submarine or fighter jet as its own independent command center that allow for controlling of "unmanned partners". Rather than 5 vs 5 people at a bar massive fight, one of the group called out their bodyguards(unmanned partners), the fight suddenly turned into a 15 vs 5. it is almost a sure victory. Without this advantage, like this article said, the China's navy will be in shamble while only two U.S carrier group sunk.

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If a war was fought today, I would just have the navy and land rocket launchers sitting at home, only launching missile without adventuring out. Just flattening everything except for the shopping centers or schools..

But if you have unmanned partners then you can go anywhere as far as Guam or Hawaii.
Lol, you take that wargame reported by CNN serious?
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Yes, Taiwan are not Chinese. The 23 million people there means nothing.

Only the island matters for its location !!
They're per definition citizens whether you like it or not. China's border is defined by the ending treaty after ww2 was won. Changing that means scrapping the entire foundation of the current world order.

However, even if someone is a citizen, if they take up arms against the government and organize into an armed group to instigate a civil war, they're enemy combatants and should be shown no mercy. ISIS members are Syrian citizens, but the Syrian army still fully attacked them without holding back.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
They're per definition citizens whether you like it or not. China's border is defined by the ending treaty after ww2 was won. Changing that means scrapping the entire foundation of the current world order.

However, even if someone is a citizen, if they take up arms against the government and organize into an armed group to instigate a civil war, they're enemy combatants and should be shown no mercy. ISIS members are Syrian citizens, but the Syrian army still fully attacked them without holding back.

But when they toss out the conscription notice and hop on a flight to SFO to enroll in UC Davis, they are patriots?
 

MixedReality

Junior Member
Registered Member
I hate to say it but this is actually a viable options. How different would Ukraine have been if Mercedev and Russia had taken a page out of the Langley playbook and employed wetwork to maintain Russian control of Ukraine? How many lives would have been saved? The death toll now as of 2023 is hundreds of thousands dead in total with millions displaced and gods only know, how many wounded.
As usual I think the definite solution to the American danger is a sharp increase in the military budget, upscaling of the military forces.

From observing the Ukraine situation from 2014 onwards and the war itself, China can learn a few lessons.

First is that Chinese intelligence need to actively and aggressively disrupt major pro-independence figures in Taiwan through any means necessary. That includes bribery, ‘accidents’, interfering in presidential election to make sure KMT wins in 2024. This is better than thousands of deaths once the war starts.

Second is for the PLA to mass produce all existing weapons in extraordinary numbers. Even low cost weapons in huge numbers have proved very effective. It’s complicated to mass produce once the war starts. Having weapons in large numbers is a deterrence in itself.

Third is to rapidly develop and expand ISR and cyber warfare capabilities.
 
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