Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Status
Not open for further replies.

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
An important piece of news that flew under the radar. The Hegemon is taking over the defense, national security and economic departments of Taiwanese government. There will not be a peaceful unification.

郭正亮 talked about it starting 6:50
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


RYO NAKAMURA, Nikkei staff writer
December 16, 2022 01:14 JST

TOKYO -- The U.S. plans to send government employees to Taiwan for two-year stints through a new fellowship program starting next fall, seeking to encourage closer bilateral cooperation as China ramps up pressure on Taipei.

Fellows will spend their first year learning Mandarin Chinese and other relevant subjects, followed by a year working with a government agency or parliamentary office.

The program, under the heading of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, is included in this year's National Defense Authorization Act, which sets military funding levels for the fiscal year ending September 2023.

The U.S. has sent government employees to Taiwan for months at a time, but longer-term programs like this are rare, a congressional source said.

Executive Director Richard Pearson of the Western Pacific Fellowship Project, a nonprofit that is expected to help manage the program, discussed the plans with Nikkei.

If the NDAA passes this month or soon after, the organization is "in a position to launch the program in early 2023 and to welcome the first class of fellows to Taiwan to begin language training in September 2023, but appropriate preparation needs to begin now," Pearson said.

The Senate will vote on the NDAA as early as Thursday evening, a Senate source told Nikkei. President Biden is expected to sign it into law soon after the Senate approval.

Applicants will be recruited from a broad range of agencies related to economic and security issues, as well as the armed forces, but not intelligence services, according to Pearson. Around 10 fellows are expected to be sent each year, though the total will initially be in the single digits.

During a visit to Taiwan in late November to early December, "we met with NGOs, government officials, legislators, media and supporters," Pearson said. "We found very strong support for the proposed fellowship program and a desire that the Taiwan Fellowship Act be passed this month and the fellowship program launched next year."

With tensions with China over Taiwan expected to last for some time to come, Washington looks to provide more support to Taipei through exchanges like this along with visits by lawmakers. Familiarizing government employees with Taipei's decision-making processes and policy development will help the two sides coordinate, the thinking goes.

The program will deepen ties between Washington and Taipei by "supporting American public servants as they benefit from the wealth of knowledge, culture and trade that Taiwan contributes to the global community -- creating a stronger, more resilient U.S.-Taiwan partnership and supporting our nation's commitment to the Indo-Pacific region," Sen. Ed Markey, a sponsor of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, said in a statement.

President Joe Biden's administration has taken other steps to encourage bilateral exchanges. Guidelines issued by the U.S. government in April 2021 encourage holding working-level talks in federal buildings, as well as allow meetings to be held at Taiwan's representative office in Washington.

The Taiwan Travel Act enacted in 2018 encourages visits between the U.S. and Taiwan by officials at all levels, including cabinet members. During previous President Donald Trump's administration, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar traveled to Taiwan in 2020, angering China.
More salami slicing.

The play for the US is to treat Taiwan as an "independent" country (just like Japan or South Korea or Australia, with the US completely embedded in its entire government and civil apparatus) without outright declaring Taiwan independent or making it official.

Defacto US control gets the US what they want (control over Taiwan) without having to pay the price of a dejure independence movement.

Now the question is, just how deep does China's tendrils go into the Taiwanese government that they can fight this?

Of course, the big picture is, as always, China needs to solve the US problem.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Most likely then China will take enhanced defense measures. Normalizing more military patrols within 5nm of the island is just the first of many steps.

Going forwards, other steps could be to force custom services to route all goods from Taiwan through Fujian first, arbitrarily shutting down airspace/ports as it is needed and so on. These are good ways to actualize Chinese control over the area without going overboard all at once.

As usual I think the definite solution to the American danger is a sharp increase in the military budget, upscaling of the military forces.
 

Diaspora

New Member
Registered Member
An important piece of news that flew under the radar. The Hegemon is taking over the defense, national security and economic departments of Taiwanese government. There will not be a peaceful unification.

郭正亮 talked about it starting 6:50
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


RYO NAKAMURA, Nikkei staff writer
December 16, 2022 01:14 JST

TOKYO -- The U.S. plans to send government employees to Taiwan for two-year stints through a new fellowship program starting next fall, seeking to encourage closer bilateral cooperation as China ramps up pressure on Taipei.

Fellows will spend their first year learning Mandarin Chinese and other relevant subjects, followed by a year working with a government agency or parliamentary office.

The program, under the heading of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, is included in this year's National Defense Authorization Act, which sets military funding levels for the fiscal year ending September 2023.

The U.S. has sent government employees to Taiwan for months at a time, but longer-term programs like this are rare, a congressional source said.

Executive Director Richard Pearson of the Western Pacific Fellowship Project, a nonprofit that is expected to help manage the program, discussed the plans with Nikkei.

If the NDAA passes this month or soon after, the organization is "in a position to launch the program in early 2023 and to welcome the first class of fellows to Taiwan to begin language training in September 2023, but appropriate preparation needs to begin now," Pearson said.

The Senate will vote on the NDAA as early as Thursday evening, a Senate source told Nikkei. President Biden is expected to sign it into law soon after the Senate approval.

Applicants will be recruited from a broad range of agencies related to economic and security issues, as well as the armed forces, but not intelligence services, according to Pearson. Around 10 fellows are expected to be sent each year, though the total will initially be in the single digits.

During a visit to Taiwan in late November to early December, "we met with NGOs, government officials, legislators, media and supporters," Pearson said. "We found very strong support for the proposed fellowship program and a desire that the Taiwan Fellowship Act be passed this month and the fellowship program launched next year."

With tensions with China over Taiwan expected to last for some time to come, Washington looks to provide more support to Taipei through exchanges like this along with visits by lawmakers. Familiarizing government employees with Taipei's decision-making processes and policy development will help the two sides coordinate, the thinking goes.

The program will deepen ties between Washington and Taipei by "supporting American public servants as they benefit from the wealth of knowledge, culture and trade that Taiwan contributes to the global community -- creating a stronger, more resilient U.S.-Taiwan partnership and supporting our nation's commitment to the Indo-Pacific region," Sen. Ed Markey, a sponsor of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, said in a statement.

President Joe Biden's administration has taken other steps to encourage bilateral exchanges. Guidelines issued by the U.S. government in April 2021 encourage holding working-level talks in federal buildings, as well as allow meetings to be held at Taiwan's representative office in Washington.

The Taiwan Travel Act enacted in 2018 encourages visits between the U.S. and Taiwan by officials at all levels, including cabinet members. During previous President Donald Trump's administration, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar traveled to Taiwan in 2020, angering China.

I'm a bit sad.
Alarm bells already go off in my head. Thinking Russia vs Ukraine scenario might eventually repeat here. Maybe not immediately but in the future. I don't want to see Chinese people fight Chinese people.

Also I don't want a war in Asia
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just release flares on their aircraft engines next times. Bonus points if you add some titanium pieces inside. Would love to see how their engines would fare against that..

Also be ready with a salvage ship. Salvage it, study it for a year or so and then "generously" return it back
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Just deleted a whole bunch of posts. That's wildly off topic. This is not a thread for economic discussions or sanctions. This is about lessons china can learn from Ukraine for Taiwan scenario. While sometimes these things are related, they do not required 2 pages of off topic posts about GDP and PPP.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
A ‘solution’ to this problem could just be a long and unending series of ‘unfortunate fatal accidents’ to visiting US ‘fellows’ so Langley can keep adding stars to its wall.
I hate to say it but this is actually a viable options. How different would Ukraine have been if Mercedev and Russia had taken a page out of the Langley playbook and employed wetwork to maintain Russian control of Ukraine? How many lives would have been saved? The death toll now as of 2023 is hundreds of thousands dead in total with millions displaced and gods only know, how many wounded.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I'm a bit sad.
Alarm bells already go off in my head. Thinking Russia vs Ukraine scenario might eventually repeat here. Maybe not immediately but in the future. I don't want to see Chinese people fight Chinese people.

Also I don't want a war in Asia
It will not be the same. China has never really mistreated its separatists. And while Russian and Ukranian are one people, Chinese and American are not. Its much much harder for US to justify a war.

And most importantly, China is not the Ukraine. They have far more ways to defend than just throwing all the military aged at the enemy.

Ukraine was not 30% of the global GDP. And did Ukraine have the capability to sink the whole Russian Mediterranean fleet as soon as it sails into the theater? Or the ability to wipe out all of Russia's bases and supply lines within 2500km with constant bombardment?

There will always be a risk that Americans will attack, because that is how expansionist and highly nationalist regimes work. But China in 2022 is protected far far more than any nation which America has ever fought in its existence.

Conscription into frontline will not be needed as long as the PLA's drone and missile doctrine works as advertized.

Besides, through NK, China has its own million men, permanently mobilized and ready to go, should it be required to counter invade into the territories of American client states.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top