Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Chevalier

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Judging by Ukraine, the US/NATO MO is to not get directly involved in the fighting themselves due to
1) US societal PTSD from being humiliated from Vietnam and
2) Potential civil revolt over massive casualties as was seen during the New York Draft riots during the US Civil War.

To that effect, the US has painstakingly tried to recruit a willing useful idiot Asian ally to play the 'Ukraine' in the Asia-Pacific and if none is willing, then they shall force the hand of their owned satrapy- in this case, Japan. US to move their HQ to Japan so as to make use of Japan as the Ukraine human shield in a future Taiwan conflict especially given the show of support from Japan to Taiwan:
 

tphuang

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For everyone, listen to latest duran clips and I take their view as being very close to the Russian views.
Key is that even if Russia/Ukraine conflict is over this year, Russia will not rejoin Western envelope and there will be continually flareups and proxy war being fought. The Russian elites have hardened against the West and consider West to be their enemy. And Russia/China is very close to be in alliance at the moment. Don't underestimate how they might help each other if requested to do so.

Again, this is just based on listening to guancha clip (their talk about closer integration with Russian military) and Putin's own comments. The relationship is tightening.

Judging by Ukraine, the US/NATO MO is to not get directly involved in the fighting themselves due to
1) US societal PTSD from being humiliated from Vietnam and
2) Potential civil revolt over massive casualties as was seen during the New York Draft riots during the US Civil War.

To that effect, the US has painstakingly tried to recruit a willing useful idiot Asian ally to play the 'Ukraine' in the Asia-Pacific and if none is willing, then they shall force the hand of their owned satrapy- in this case, Japan. US to move their HQ to Japan so as to make use of Japan as the Ukraine human shield in a future Taiwan conflict especially given the show of support from Japan to Taiwan:
If America moves its Pacific HQ to Japan, then there is no way it doesn't get involved. Do you think the Pacific air force and the 7th fleet would not get attacked if Japan participates?

China has to plan for other countries to get involved. However, this fight is not going to happen if America itself does not get involved.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
It makes sense to keep the current arrangement with Russia to retain a level of ambiguity if an aggressor comes into Asia.

Simply put, if US attacks and Russia immediately fully rushes to war like NK would, they would add a few more forces to the theater, they may even score some kills. But they will also be at risk and their ability is not overwhelming on the same way PLA is.

Instead the most ideal role for Russia would be just to provide neutral ISR. Russian planes, drones and radars can light up US targets for PLA to fire at without Americans being able to actively counter it, unless they wanna fire the first shot at Russia.

China's Eastern defense goal is not merely hinging on hard military power to annihilate the invader, but also seeks to create a widespread economical embargo that will kill the US economy forever. An important part of that strategy is to cast America as the unprovoked instigator of ww3, rallying the world to join in on an eventual embargo.

If US fires first on Russia, they will be blamed even more than they already are. But if they don't fire on Russia, the Russians will just fly around looking for stuff the PLA can then zero in their weapons on.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I consider Russia a paper tiger so the best use of them is just that, stay out of the war and seem big and threatening so that the US will always have to be weary of a Russian attack or action.

If Russia can provide ISR, maybe shared usage of its airbases, and release some signals that it has a couple of nuclear submarines here and there in order to scare the Americans and complicate USN planning, then that's enough.

TLDR: Russia's value is to stay out of a China-US war and be seen to be threatening so that the US military get distracted
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
For everyone, listen to latest duran clips and I take their view as being very close to the Russian views.
......
Key is that even if Russia/Ukraine conflict is over this year, Russia will not rejoin Western envelope and there will be continually flareups and proxy war being fought. The Russian elites have hardened against the West and consider West to be their enemy. And Russia/China is very close to be in alliance at the moment. Don't underestimate how they might help each other if requested to do so.

Again, this is just based on listening to guancha clip (their talk about closer integration with Russian military) and Putin's own comments. The relationship is tightening.


If America moves its Pacific HQ to Japan, then there is no way it doesn't get involved. Do you think the Pacific air force and the 7th fleet would not get attacked if Japan participates?

China has to plan for other countries to get involved. However, this fight is not going to happen if America itself does not get involved.
China and Russia are already de facto allies. China is refraining from turning this into a full-blown military alliance because Chinese fundamental economic interests are still intertwined with the west. And that refrain in itself is the most potent weapon against the west calculation on China, with US/NATO noises on subjects of Taiwan/Hong Kong/Xing Jiang notwithstanding. The west cannot afford to making China/Russia a similar military alliance to NATO. West knows it. China knows it. Russia knows it. So 2023 would be more peaceful than 2022 in my calculation.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
What Russian ISR? Where is it now in Ukraine?
You certainly have a point lol

Just get their radar info and that's good enough for me. Their air defences have been proven to be good even with a few drones slipping past here and there
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
What Russian ISR? Where is it now in Ukraine?
Russia alone doesn't have much but China's coverage is the strongest in Eurasia. So you just need the Russians to cue you into a direction and the PLA can do the rest.

Most likely China will spot everything by themselves, but having an additional Russian asset that can fly anywhere in international airspace can see even more. There is no such thing as too much recon.

In reality if Russian native assets don't have good enough resolution or ability to guide PLA kill chains, China can just "donate" drones to Russia and then fly the drones themselves as "Russian" assets.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
You certainly have a point lol

Just get their radar info and that's good enough for me. Their air defences have been proven to be good even with a few drones slipping past here and there
In case Russia decides to become neutral in the hypothetical war in the Westpac, is it possible for China to "sell" ISR drones to Russia, have them painted in RuAF colours, but operate these drones above Russian airspace and in the Sea of Japan by Chinese personnel stationed in Russia instead (with Russian personnel assistance)?

This would be similar to the FORTE RQ-4B ISR drone currently operating above the Black Sea while collection data and info on the Russian forces in Crimea, but necessitating the identities of the drones and their operators to be concealed.

ItaMilRadar-1.jpg
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
An important piece of news that flew under the radar. The Hegemon is taking over the defense, national security and economic departments of Taiwanese government. There will not be a peaceful unification.

郭正亮 talked about it starting 6:50
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RYO NAKAMURA, Nikkei staff writer
December 16, 2022 01:14 JST

TOKYO -- The U.S. plans to send government employees to Taiwan for two-year stints through a new fellowship program starting next fall, seeking to encourage closer bilateral cooperation as China ramps up pressure on Taipei.

Fellows will spend their first year learning Mandarin Chinese and other relevant subjects, followed by a year working with a government agency or parliamentary office.

The program, under the heading of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, is included in this year's National Defense Authorization Act, which sets military funding levels for the fiscal year ending September 2023.

The U.S. has sent government employees to Taiwan for months at a time, but longer-term programs like this are rare, a congressional source said.

Executive Director Richard Pearson of the Western Pacific Fellowship Project, a nonprofit that is expected to help manage the program, discussed the plans with Nikkei.

If the NDAA passes this month or soon after, the organization is "in a position to launch the program in early 2023 and to welcome the first class of fellows to Taiwan to begin language training in September 2023, but appropriate preparation needs to begin now," Pearson said.

The Senate will vote on the NDAA as early as Thursday evening, a Senate source told Nikkei. President Biden is expected to sign it into law soon after the Senate approval.

Applicants will be recruited from a broad range of agencies related to economic and security issues, as well as the armed forces, but not intelligence services, according to Pearson. Around 10 fellows are expected to be sent each year, though the total will initially be in the single digits.

During a visit to Taiwan in late November to early December, "we met with NGOs, government officials, legislators, media and supporters," Pearson said. "We found very strong support for the proposed fellowship program and a desire that the Taiwan Fellowship Act be passed this month and the fellowship program launched next year."

With tensions with China over Taiwan expected to last for some time to come, Washington looks to provide more support to Taipei through exchanges like this along with visits by lawmakers. Familiarizing government employees with Taipei's decision-making processes and policy development will help the two sides coordinate, the thinking goes.

The program will deepen ties between Washington and Taipei by "supporting American public servants as they benefit from the wealth of knowledge, culture and trade that Taiwan contributes to the global community -- creating a stronger, more resilient U.S.-Taiwan partnership and supporting our nation's commitment to the Indo-Pacific region," Sen. Ed Markey, a sponsor of the Taiwan Fellowship Act, said in a statement.

President Joe Biden's administration has taken other steps to encourage bilateral exchanges. Guidelines issued by the U.S. government in April 2021 encourage holding working-level talks in federal buildings, as well as allow meetings to be held at Taiwan's representative office in Washington.

The Taiwan Travel Act enacted in 2018 encourages visits between the U.S. and Taiwan by officials at all levels, including cabinet members. During previous President Donald Trump's administration, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar traveled to Taiwan in 2020, angering China.
 
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