Oh I am sure if Alaska declared independences with the backing of China there would not be a political and internal crisis in Washington if they decide to wait 20 years.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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Oh I am sure if Alaska declared independences with the backing of China there would not be a political and internal crisis in Washington if they decide to wait 20 years.
Can't China just embargo Taiwanese trade immediately if they declare independence? And put secondary sanctions on anyone who trades with Taiwan. Ban all travel, seize all assets and make Taiwan a pariah
Obviously this will all be a prelude to armed reunification unless Taiwan capitulates but we'll see how countries are forced to choose
Obviously this will all be a prelude to armed reunification unless Taiwan capitulates but we'll see how countries are forced to choose
We know by 2050, the white race is no longer a majority. Its a minority. To me, U.S is more like an extension of Europe. Right now, majority of White holds position in Congress or political positions, army and police force. If the White racial group loses power in Congress, Police force, Army, and Top wealth due to diversity, U.S will no longer function as 50 States.
In Cali and Texas, the racial demographics is 40% latinos. By 2075, Latinos demographic in Texas and Cali will likely increase to 75-80%. That means Mexico can reclaim Cali or Texas due to the will of the population or break off as independent states. If your politicians, police force and army are all Latinos, they can make a law to request a break off from the mainland. By 2100, The white population is only 25% if U.S still exist in tact. It will be chaos and alot of racial turmoil.
Of course China will defend its own ground. The only scenario where Taiwan can leave and there won't be immediate devastating consequence is if the whole National Congress votes to create laws specifically to release them and/or even a general referendum across the whole nation shows overwhelming support of China leaving Taiwan. Which are about as likely to happen as the entire US electorate collage voting for CPUSA.
For a start, China might not necessarily immediate go to full head hunting rebel leaders and knocking out everything they can see, they might only opt for be a complete cutoff of Taiwan, like what Israel does to the West Bank. But pretty quickly, if the declaration of war against the legitimate government isn't immediately retracted and followed by new negotiations, the PLA will fully move out.
The decision of going in or not is on China to bear the consequences of both choices. The US will not pull off a Taiwan invasion if there's not some kind of coup in Taiwan and pro-China government take the helm. The statu-quo is way better for them, slowly taking assets from Taiwan and giving the US occasions of messing with China. I would see an invasion of North Korea way more interesting for them to start a conflict in the region.
If China choose to go in and take Taiwan they need to do it quick and decisively. A blockade and some kind of coercision will only play in the US hands. Going in half handed and waiting to see if something will make Taiwan crumble or not is clearly what have happened in Ukraine and it's a total mess. Taiwan forces will encroaches themselves and most infrastructures will be loss. Will give time for help to arrive. Learning of Ukraine would give a giant stop to think like that.
It need to be a massive military and communication infrastructure strike. China need to go in full yolo, topple anything at the head and put feet everywhere on the ground by any means possibles, faster as possible. Going all out with paratroopers units and by sea and cut off all possibilities of reinforcements. Seeing flights of 20 or more Y-20 in the ADIZ practicing with electronic warfare aircrafts would be a good indication of things to come if they go that way.
If your arty can hit them, theirs can also hit you. except you are a much easier target for massed arty due to being on a small island with constraints on how dispersed you can deploy your systems. Think snake island
although Penghu is much larger, I feel bad for the poor souls thatwill eventually be tasked to shell Taiwan from there.
How does China intend to protect trillions in dollars of the investments of the govt (bonds/reserves) and it's citizens outside Chinese border?
We are seeing in case of Russia, everything will just be taken.
We are seeing in case of Russia, everything will just be taken.
there are quite a few trillions invested in China as well... Yeah, if there's a serious conflict, you can bet, everything will be taken.
one side has a lot of greenbacks and the other has a lot of factories and steel. We'll both steal trillions from each other! Lets see who suffers more!
The status quo is not good for US at all, otherwise they would not be trying their hardest to try and change it.
The mainland does not rely on Taiwan for its economy, not even 1% of it. If you read carefully, you will see that when the communist government reports their economy, they do not include areas occupied by KMT. Economy was never part of the calculus.
So no matter how much assets US think they can steal from there, as long as the land itself remains Chinese, it's value for China remains the same.
It is America that wants to take over the separatist areas, that is their main if not only condition to have a fighting chance in the Cold War game. Left to its own devices, China will eventually with extreme ease get rid of KMT through negotiation, force or a mix of both. Like LDPR is powerless without Russia, KMT is powerless without America.
Regarding how exactly China counters the rebel presence, it would depend if they come at the government alone or while the threat of a foreign invasion looms. If an US invasion is predicted, then China would likely act as you say, with total strikes at everything that moves. Because the priority then is to ensure that even if the unthinkable worst case happens and US succeeds, they will be left a scorched and useless land.
If its a relatively calm scenario, it can start with an embargo and then change as time goes on. The strategy would vary depending on the size of threat facing China.
in reality Taiwan would not concentrate its long range arty to the south to bombard penghu. penghu is also much much bigger than snake island and is inhabited, you simply cannot compare the two.
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