Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Arnies · Dec 10, 2022

The first lesson and final lesson should have been Syria when it comes to conventional war tutorial demo. Everything happened in that war and teaches us what to do and what to not do, The logistics one needs to actully effectively fight a conventional war etc etc including the probability of engagements, tactics etc etc.

A whole alliance were fighting a group of rebel alliance for a freaking 10 years in Syria with Iran, Russia, Syria gov't etc etc taking on FSA, HTS and other rebel groupings and after a cruelling 10 years conflict ended in without conclusion. Note the Syria war was never hit or run but a direct conventional conflict where lines were pushed back and forth.

Not many learned anything from that conflict because everyone underrated the non-state actor foe that was fighting against the Regime, including allies Russia and Iran but the foe was incredible tough and fought on for 10 years without direct elimination but after the Ukraine war revisiting their war showchases that the Syrian rebels were actully stubborn and would have been a good study case for Ukraine. Because there were also idiot groups who fought extremely stupid and it also tought us about terrain warfare etc etc. Then there were groups like FSA, HTS who fought very smart with the resources they had and including the Russian generals also evolved during the conflict and learning how to break the deadlock in major urban cities. SAA despite their early mistakes reformed and made good comeback and eventually leading to a frozen conflict.

Can the Ukrainians actully fight the Russians and co for 10 years is the question one needs to be asking because right now despite the casuality being high on both ends the war is still in it's infancy..

Russia was unnecessarily overrated because everyone took Ukraine's motivation and will to exist for granted but either way I eventually believe the Russians will come out on top because they willl take off the gloves and fight with everything they have including nukes and gas

Biscuits · Dec 10, 2022

Arnies said:
My Fair assessement on the Taiwan-China clash if the frontline opens.

As everyone else knows China is obviously the favourite but that doesn't mean Taiwan can be counted out. First of all we have to take into account that Taiwan is cut off from the mainland giving them somewhat conventionally a head start.

They have quite a capable armed forces and armed to the teeth and they seem to be motivated to hold the land despite waves of Chinese attacks which is where the battle will enter meat-grinder status.

China will not be able to streamroll Taiwan and I am saying this as someone who supports China and acknowledges the 1 china policy and I am saying this so that the PLA supporters don't easily get disappointed because it is completely fine that Taiwan holds for atleast 2 years until they run out of resupplies or even 3 years depending on how much they have stucked up.

The biggest chellenge for China will be ethablishing a hold on one of the coasts so that they can endlessly re-supply that coast and land on the Island without issues.

As for the air-superiority Taiwan will fiecerly contest the air despite the Chinese having stealth fighters Taiwan's f-16s are in the fight due to being formidble for air-superiority and can take on anyone model or version up in the skies..

The air-superiority will be contested closely but China could come on top later on due to sheer numbers of jets but it will come at great cost. As for the control of the ocean China will take control of it immediately surrounding the Island in embargo style.

War duration estimation: It depends on China's will power and motivation to take the Island because if the chinese lose heart mid-way campaign the Taiwans will repel them and declare victory. Hence a highly motivated china that won't accept defeat at all costs and willing to sacrifice all of their armed forces will eventually overwhelm Taiwan depending on Taiwans arms depot stock size it can last for 2-3 years or max 4 years before the Chinese completely liberate the Island but it will come at heavy price

F-16s are barely a match for J-10s and the J-10s won't attack alone, they will go in together with 5th gens backing them.

I don't think comparison with Syria vs ISIS is much valid at all. Syria has basically 0 ISR to speak of until Russia entered the equation. ISIS occupied territory was also way larger relative to Syria than KMT occupied territory relative to China.

Syria has little/no air strike options let alone missile strike options either.

China does not need to immediately put boots on the ground inside major KMT strongholds. A breach of the civil war ceasefire will see PLA forces first cutting off air and sea routes over the battlefield in a matter of days due to massive difference in tech and numbers.

The main factor that can hold out for the rebel army is how much light infantry they can get that are willing to fight during terrible conditions. If there is a lot, Beijing would go for a protracted air campaign instead.

China is here to stay because the islands are vital and core territories with significant population, arguably even more so than the Donbass is to Ukraine. And China is a country with real history, not an artificial union created by someone else. If for whatever reason the army can't carry out an offensive, they would still continue to shell rebel positions on Taiwan every day, like Ukraine is doing with Donetsk. Except China has, (might even be a conservative estimate), likely 10000x the industrial capacity of Ukraine.

There would never be a lasting military victory for the rebels because China would not surrender any of its core territories, if even Syria which is in terms of power a pathetic nation can eventually grind ISIS down.

Hence breaking the ceasefire is considered a bad idea even amongst the KMT because the ceasefire is the only reason they survive.

Arnies · Dec 10, 2022

Biscuits said:
F-16s are barely a match for J-10s and the J-10s won't attack alone, they will go in together with 5th gens backing them.

I don't think comparison with Syria vs ISIS is much valid at all. Syria has basically 0 ISR to speak of until Russia entered the equation. ISIS occupied territory was also way larger relative to Syria than KMT occupied territory relative to China.

Syria has little/no air strike options let alone missile strike options either.

China does not need to immediately put boots on the ground inside major KMT strongholds. A breach of the civil war ceasefire will see PLA forces first cutting off air and sea routes over the battlefield in a matter of days due to massive difference in tech and numbers.

The main factor that can hold out for the rebel army is how much light infantry they can get that are willing to fight during terrible conditions. If there is a lot, Beijing would go for a protracted air campaign instead.

China is here to stay because the islands are vital and core territories with significant population, arguably even more so than the Donbass is to Ukraine. And China is a country with real history, not an artificial union created by someone else. If for whatever reason the army can't carry out an offensive, they would still continue to shell rebel positions on Taiwan every day, like Ukraine is doing with Donetsk. Except China has, (might even be a conservative estimate), likely 10000x the industrial capacity of Ukraine.

There would never be a lasting military victory for the rebels because China would not surrender any of its core territories, if even Syria which is in terms of power a pathetic nation can eventually grind ISIS down.

Hence breaking the ceasefire is considered a bad idea even amongst the KMT because the ceasefire is the only reason they survive.

ISIS weren't the rebels nor were I referring to them but they were are 3rd group that got into fighting everything out of nowhere. I mean the rebels FSA, TFSA, HTS, Ahrar-Sham, Faylaq Rahman etc etc these Rebels the once who were fighting the regime from beginning to end they are complete different entity then ISIS who were dumb technically and sprinted into the open desert and got picked apart by SDF and US airforce due to terrain.

By the way in regards to Taiwan's F-16s they are upgraded and believe me they can take on any version of fighter jets even 7th or 8th generations. They are good dog-fighter jets and will always have a dog in the fight in the air. It won't be like Ukraine and Russia in the air where Russia actully gained the air superiority but Taiwan will be able to contest the superiority I have no doubt about this..

I do believe China gains the upper hands and wins the conflict eventually taking the Island but it won't be a streamroll conventionally unless China using nuclear weapons

antiterror13 · Dec 10, 2022

Arnies said:
The first lesson and final lesson should have been Syria when it comes to conventional war tutorial demo. Everything happened in that war and teaches us what to do and what to not do, The logistics one needs to actully effectively fight a conventional war etc etc including the probability of engagements, tactics etc etc.

A whole alliance were fighting a group of rebel alliance for a freaking 10 years in Syria with Iran, Russia, Syria gov't etc etc taking on FSA, HTS and other rebel groupings and after a cruelling 10 years conflict ended in without conclusion. Note the Syria war was never hit or run but a direct conventional conflict where lines were pushed back and forth.

Not many learned anything from that conflict because everyone underrated the non-state actor foe that was fighting against the Regime, including allies Russia and Iran but the foe was incredible tough and fought on for 10 years without direct elimination but after the Ukraine war revisiting their war showchases that the Syrian rebels were actully stubborn and would have been a good study case for Ukraine. Because there were also idiot groups who fought extremely stupid and it also tought us about terrain warfare etc etc. Then there were groups like FSA, HTS who fought very smart with the resources they had and including the Russian generals also evolved during the conflict and learning how to break the deadlock in major urban cities. SAA despite their early mistakes reformed and made good comeback and eventually leading to a frozen conflict.

Can the Ukrainians actully fight the Russians and co for 10 years is the question one needs to be asking because right now despite the casuality being high on both ends the war is still in it's infancy..

Russia was unnecessarily overrated because everyone took Ukraine's motivation and will to exist for granted but either way I eventually believe the Russians will come out on top because they willl take off the gloves and fight with everything they have including nukes and gas

well, if Russia only fight Ukrainans, the war would be ended in 1 month. But the Russians is fighting Ukrainan + Nato with full intelligence support and weapons.

I think you hugely overrated Taiwanese armed forces. F-16 would be slaughtered by PLAAF. I don't even think ROCAF would fly any airplane when the war happens. They would keep the F-16 in the caves to protect it from many missiles that would hit the airports and hangars. And Taiwanese army would fight PLA with guerrilla warfare ? are you kidding us ? .. PLA is the god of the guerrilla warfare. When the supply and electricity been cut off, most Taiwanese army would surrender in no time, perhaps few would stay in the tiny jungle in the eastern part of Taiwan, but it won't be long

Arnies · Dec 10, 2022

antiterror13 said:
well, if Russia only fight Ukrainans, the war would be ended in 1 month. But the Russians is fighting Ukrainan + Nato with full intelligence support and weapons.

I think you are hugely overrated Taiwanese armed forces. F-16 would be slaughtered by PLAAF. I don't even think ROCAF would fly any airplane when the war happens. They would keep the F-16 in the cave to protect it from many missiles that would hit the airports and hangars. And Taiwanese army would fight PLA with guerrilla warfare ? are you kidding us ? .. PLA is the god of the guerrilla warfare. Nd when the supply and electricity been cut off, most Taiwanese army would be surrendered in no time, perhaps few would stay in the tiny jungle in the eastern part of Taiwan, but it won't be long

Come on bro... No way chance Taiwan opts for Guerrilla but conventional warfare.. their armed forces is decent for conventional warfare.

They will fly their jets and will attempt to bring the fight to nearby Chinese cities and try to fire missiles on nearby cities and military installations inside China all tho may not be successful because PLAAF will likely intercept them each time and it will be heavy cost for them but I have no doubt they will attempt to attack nearby Chinese cities..

But after 2 weeks time I think their airforce will get overwhelmed and China will claim the air

Arnies · Dec 10, 2022

antiterror13 said:
well, if Russia only fight Ukrainans, the war would be ended in 1 month. But the Russians is fighting Ukrainan + Nato with full intelligence support and weapons.

Not one month but the war would have been easier for Russia. But still I don't buy currently all the hype saying Russia losing this or that which is not correct. Russia will still win this conflict they will eventually push thru Bakhmut seize the territories and reach Odessa this is my prediction

tphuang · Dec 10, 2022

Arnies said:
Not one month but the war would have been easier for Russia. But still I don't buy currently all the hype saying Russia losing this or that which is not correct. Russia will still win this conflict they will eventually push thru Bakhmut seize the territories and reach Odessa this is my prediction

If you want to be taken seriously, please at least read through some of this thread before commenting. It seems like you do not understand the basics here.

AndrewS · Dec 10, 2022

Arnies said:
My Fair assessement on the Taiwan-China clash if the frontline opens.

As everyone else knows China is obviously the favourite but that doesn't mean Taiwan can be counted out. First of all we have to take into account that Taiwan is cut off from the mainland giving them somewhat conventionally a head start.

They have quite a capable armed forces and armed to the teeth and they seem to be motivated to hold the land despite waves of Chinese attacks which is where the battle will enter meat-grinder status.

China will not be able to streamroll Taiwan and I am saying this as someone who supports China and acknowledges the 1 china policy and I am saying this so that the PLA supporters don't easily get disappointed because it is completely fine that Taiwan holds for atleast 2 years until they run out of resupplies or even 3 years depending on how much they have stucked up.

The biggest chellenge for China will be ethablishing a hold on one of the coasts so that they can endlessly re-supply that coast and land on the Island without issues.

As for the air-superiority Taiwan will fiecerly contest the air despite the Chinese having stealth fighters Taiwan's f-16s are in the fight due to being formidble for air-superiority and can take on anyone model or version up in the skies..

The air-superiority will be contested closely but China could come on top later on due to sheer numbers of jets but it will come at great cost. As for the control of the ocean China will take control of it immediately surrounding the Island in embargo style.

War duration estimation: It depends on China's will power and motivation to take the Island because if the chinese lose heart mid-way campaign the Taiwans will repel them and declare victory. Hence a highly motivated china that won't accept defeat at all costs and willing to sacrifice all of their armed forces will eventually overwhelm Taiwan depending on Taiwans arms depot stock size it can last for 2-3 years or max 4 years before the Chinese completely liberate the Island but it will come at heavy price

Taiwan under a blockade will only last weeks, not months or years. Remember that Taiwan imports all/most of its food, oil and gas. Plus we can expect the Taiwanese electricity grid to be knocked out after the first day. Water supplies to start being cut off at the same time.

Taiwanese society would literally be in a state of collapse/anarchy with hungry mobs.
How can the Taiwanese military function in such an environment? How could the Taiwanese government continue to resist a settlement?

tankphobia · Dec 10, 2022

Taiwan really wasted their time with buying big budget items/corruption rather than building as much asymmetrical advantage as possible in the 20 odd years where the mainland was unable to seriously threaten them due to the US military presence. A distributed network of underground shelters and supply caches combined with dual use infrastructure for urban warfare ala South Korea would at least give them a chance to drag it out if push comes to shove.

A fully barricaded Taipei bristling with ambush spots and machine gun nests with underground food/water supply like the underground great wall would be achievable, but that would have actually require telling the people that the PLA aren't made of paper and is actually capable of crushing a conventional defense, hard sell in a democracy.

Instead now they are propagandized to believe that the US would come save them like a maiden in distress, when instead it would be more like a speed bump in the prelude to WW3 in the Pacific.

TK3600 · Dec 10, 2022

Arnies said:
China will not be able to streamroll Taiwan and I am saying this as someone who supports China and acknowledges the 1 china policy and I am saying this so that the PLA supporters don't easily get disappointed because it is completely fine that Taiwan holds for atleast 2 years until they run out of resupplies or even 3 years depending on how much they have stucked up.

Ammo and other stuff aside, do they have enough food stockpiled for 2 years?

Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Arnies

Junior Member

Biscuits

Major

Arnies

Junior Member

antiterror13

Brigadier

Arnies

Junior Member

Arnies

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tphuang

Lieutenant General

AndrewS

Brigadier

tankphobia

Senior Member

TK3600

Major