Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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tankphobia

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
vincent said:
China can probably reduce the cost to $2k each with automated production lines.
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I mean not even that, if DJI can sell a Mavic for $1.5k I don't really see that big of a leap in terms of the internals to actually mass manufacture at a low cost.

The thing is that RC planes are slow enough that GPS speed limiters will not apply on them, so you can make one just from COTS parts even just as a hobbyist at exceedingly low cost. The 20k figure is probably what the Iranians are charging the Russians to recoup the delivery cost.

You can probably just repurpose one of the DJI factories if push comes to shove and make tens of thousands of suicide drones if need be.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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@AndrewS
Those are multiple year contracts. And several of those weapons are already obsolete. Like Harpoon, FIM-92 Stinger and FGM-148 Javelin. Others like AIM-9X Sidewinder have had a dubious track record in combat use. Also all these GPS guided rounds would be useless in a peer vs peer conflict where the satellites would either be jammed or destroyed. US is betting on the wrong horse again like with their massive waste on MRAPs in the Global War on Terror. Even "modern" systems like the Naval Strike Missile are basically a bandaid. Because they cannot develop high supersonic or hypersonic cruise missiles for anti shipping even if their life depended on it. PAC-3 MSE is also obsolete and dead on arrival. Even the Poles do not want it.

If I was in charge of US procurement I would design a new MANPADS, perhaps by resurrecting some of the Stinger upgrade programs, and license produce the French Akeron MP missile on the ATGM role.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Major
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AndrewS said:
The short answer is no.

Think about how many MREs you would need.
Each person would need 1460 MREs to last 2 years (365 days x 2 years x 2 per day)
Given that each MRE costs $7, that's $10K in MREs per person.
Plus a spare room to store all these MREs which weigh about 800kg.

Or if we use 2000 calories as the average daily requirement with half from starch, then each person needs about 250g of pasta/noodles/rice per day. Over the course of 2 years, that works out as 182kg per person. Then you have the other half of the calories required
And of course, you need water and heat to cook this.
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you gotta use taiwan's currency and price though.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
AndrewS said:
I think that is a stretch.

It looks like you can get an Aeromomentum engine for less than $10K
Even with mass production, I don't see an engine going below $5K

Then you have the rest of the loitering munition as well
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i stand corrected
you can buy an UAV frame for $3k
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MD-550 engine can be bought for $17k
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reservior dogs

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tankphobia said:
Despite the overwhelming firepower advantage PLA enjoys, if Taiwan had designed their cities around being fortresses from the start, it could still be a giant pain in the ass for a PLA invasion. I.e charges on pre-set point around port infrascture and sinkable obstacle to prevent entry, hiding spots for long ranged anti-shipping missiles and mandatory 2 year conscription will go a long way towards making it a tough nut to crack.

Instead they have the fantasy "push them back to the ocean from the beaches" plan which is more of a meme then anything when they will lose air superiority with the first 24 hours even if their pilots are all ghost of Kiev's.
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Cities are not designed to be self sufficient. As soon as PLA is able to land and control the airports and the ports, it is all over. You cannot stockpile enough food for any sizeable city for very long. The Chinese are prepared to wait them out. As far as Taiwan goes, they have unlimited manpower, time and resources. They have all sorts of drones that will do anti-terror work. They have face recognition software and can install cameras in all the check points. If they cut off food and water, it won't be more than two weeks before the population will revolt and wanted these people to surrender. The population will turn to help the PLA just out of needs for survival.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
@AndrewS
Those are multiple year contracts. And several of those weapons are already obsolete. Like Harpoon, FIM-92 Stinger and FGM-148 Javelin. Others like AIM-9X Sidewinder have had a dubious track record in combat use. Also all these GPS guided rounds would be useless in a peer vs peer conflict where the satellites would either be jammed or destroyed. US is betting on the wrong horse again like with their massive waste on MRAPs in the Global War on Terror. Even "modern" systems like the Naval Strike Missile are basically a bandaid. Because they cannot develop high supersonic or hypersonic cruise missiles for anti shipping even if their life depended on it. PAC-3 MSE is also obsolete and dead on arrival. Even the Poles do not want it.

If I was in charge of US procurement I would design a new MANPADS, perhaps by resurrecting some of the Stinger upgrade programs, and license produce the French Akeron MP missile on the ATGM role.
Click to expand...

A couple of points on satellite GPS

1. Directional signal receivers can determine the direction of GPS signals. Then it becomes easy to ignore everything except the ones actually broadcasting from space. This should be pretty cheap to do

2. It shouldn't be too difficult to add a smartphone + camera to a munition. With commercial image recognition algorithms, this can differentiate between buildings, vehicles and people. That gets you final stage accuracy to the metre. That's better than the 3m with GPS or 30m with INS. In addition, it's also straightforward to implement DSMAC (Digital Scene Matching Area Correlator) for mid-course guidance
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
AndrewS said:
A couple of points on satellite GPS

1. Directional signal receivers can determine the direction of GPS signals. Then it becomes easy to ignore everything except the ones actually broadcasting from space. This should be pretty cheap to do
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Based on what I know about signals and systems, a jammer can produce signals that modifies the GPS signal waveforms to make the signals from the satellites unrecognizable.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
vincent said:
Based on what I know about signals and systems, a jammer can produce signals that modifies the GPS signal waveforms to make the signals from the satellites unrecognizable.
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How could a jammer modify the signal broadcast elsewhere?

It all depends on how the signals are received.

If you have a single signal antennae, all the signals get combined, which makes it easy to jam.
But if you have multiple receivers, you get a timing difference from when the signals hit the receivers.
That allows you to compute the direction of all the original signals and how strong they are.

It's the same principle behind a radar blasting out a single pulse, but then receiving multiple aircraft reflections to
can track. If some of signals are coming from the ground instead of space, you know you can ignore those.
 
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AndrewS

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Registered Member
Just going back to the US procurement plan for an extra 3,100 JASSM missiles

The equivalent Chinese missile is the DF-17 which appears to cost around the same as a JASSM, based on the USAF and Big Shrimp comments (circa $1.5-2 Million)

But the DF-17 is a much faster hypersonic missile with significantly longer range.

Now imagine if China procures 3000 DF-17s in response
Basically, China can now run the Taiwan playbook on Japan
I reckon that would be enough to deter Japan from joining the US in a war against China
And if Japan doesn't get involved in a Taiwan conflict, I suspect the US will decline to get involved either
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
AndrewS said:
How could a jammer modify the signal broadcast elsewhere?

It all depends on how the signals are received.

If you have a single signal antennae, all the signals get combined, which makes it easy to jam.
But if you have multiple receivers, you get a timing difference from when the signals hit the receivers.
That allows you to compute the direction of all the original signals and how strong they are.

It's the same principle behind a radar blasting out a single pulse, but then receiving multiple aircraft reflections to
can track. If some of signals are coming from the ground instead of space, you know you can ignore those.
Click to expand...
What if the jammer is on an UAV? In China’s case, multiple UAVs with GPS signal emitters can fly along the coastal areas and over Chinese fleets, safe from interceptions by hostile aircrafts. The signals emit by them can cause the GPS signals from satellites unusable.
 
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