If they did that, PLA can simply continue the aerial and naval blockade for as long as needed.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Despite the overwhelming firepower advantage PLA enjoys, if Taiwan had designed their cities around being fortresses from the start, it could still be a giant pain in the ass for a PLA invasion. I.e charges on pre-set point around port infrascture and sinkable obstacle to prevent entry, hiding spots for long ranged anti-shipping missiles and mandatory 2 year conscription will go a long way towards making it a tough nut to crack.
Instead they have the fantasy "push them back to the ocean from the beaches" plan which is more of a meme then anything when they will lose air superiority with the first 24 hours even if their pilots are all ghost of Kiev's.
There is no need to crack any nuts. The people on the island will starve if the continue to resist
The short answer is no.
Think about how many MREs you would need.
Each person would need 1460 MREs to last 2 years (365 days x 2 years x 2 per day)
Given that each MRE costs $7, that's $10K in MREs per person.
Plus a spare room to store all these MREs which weigh about 800kg.
Or if we use 2000 calories as the average daily requirement with half from starch, then each person needs about 250g of pasta/noodles/rice per day. Over the course of 2 years, that works out as 182kg per person. Then you have the other half of the calories required
And of course, you need water and heat to cook this.
Cities are fortresses and mazes anyway without having to be specially designed for this.
But there's a limit to how long they can survive without access to outside supplies.
Look at Azovstal as an example. They held out for 2 months before their supplies gave out completely, but there were only a few thousand of them to feed. If you also have to feed the civilians in a city under attack, you're talking about food supplies lasting days.
Think back to all those WW2 movies on the Russian Eastern Front with battles showing ragged hungry civilians amidst the ruins and in the middle of a war zone.
It’s financially impossible to buy enough MREs anyway. Based on your estimates and prices then that equals about 34.5 billion MREs or $241.5 billion dollars with the ROC military budget at $19.4 billion. If they spend $2.4 billion every year then it is possible to buy it enough within +100 years. Include logistics, maintenance, and unforeseen events then it’s just a complete waste of money.
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If you look at the lessons the US is learning, here is their procurement plan (copied from the US thread)
864,000 155mm rounds
12,050 #Excalibur rounds
12,000 #JAGM missiles
700 #HIMARS launchers
1,700 #ATACMS missiles
106,000 #GMLRS rounds
2,600 Harpoon Missiles
1,250 Naval Strike Missiles
3,850 PAC-3 #MSE missiles
5,600 FIM–92 #Stinger missiles
28,300 FGM–148 #Javelin missiles
5,100 AIM–120 #AMRAAM missiles
5,100 AIM-9X missiles
950 #LRASM missiles
3,100 JASSM missiles
1,500 SM-6 missiles
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The most notable one is the 106K of GMLRS rockets @ $100K each. That works out as $10 Billion.
Also note that the US already has an inventory of 250K JDAMs @ $25K each, which works out as $6 Billion,
These are the sorts of numbers that the Chinese military would need to deter Taiwan, Korea or Japan from joining the US in a war against China.
But rather than huge numbers of JDAMs, I think they should mostly buy the Shaheed @ $20K each. You can think of it as a cruise missile which is very slow, but which costs less than a JDAM. Or as a JDAM that can fly to the target by itself, rather than rely on an aircraft to drop it over hostile airspace.
864,000 155mm rounds
12,050 #Excalibur rounds
12,000 #JAGM missiles
700 #HIMARS launchers
1,700 #ATACMS missiles
106,000 #GMLRS rounds
2,600 Harpoon Missiles
1,250 Naval Strike Missiles
3,850 PAC-3 #MSE missiles
5,600 FIM–92 #Stinger missiles
28,300 FGM–148 #Javelin missiles
5,100 AIM–120 #AMRAAM missiles
5,100 AIM-9X missiles
950 #LRASM missiles
3,100 JASSM missiles
1,500 SM-6 missiles
---
The most notable one is the 106K of GMLRS rockets @ $100K each. That works out as $10 Billion.
Also note that the US already has an inventory of 250K JDAMs @ $25K each, which works out as $6 Billion,
These are the sorts of numbers that the Chinese military would need to deter Taiwan, Korea or Japan from joining the US in a war against China.
But rather than huge numbers of JDAMs, I think they should mostly buy the Shaheed @ $20K each. You can think of it as a cruise missile which is very slow, but which costs less than a JDAM. Or as a JDAM that can fly to the target by itself, rather than rely on an aircraft to drop it over hostile airspace.
What is the shell life of MRE? 5 years?
China can probably reduce the cost to $2k each with automated production lines.
I think that is a stretch.
It looks like you can get an Aeromomentum engine for less than $10K
Even with mass production, I don't see an engine going below $5K
Then you have the rest of the loitering munition as well
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