Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

tphuang said:

This is definitely a new one. This is the first time I've heard of anyone that thinks you can just pack up patriot missiles and move them before PCL191 rockets arrive. The latest stand off missiles they've add are all meant to be fired from beyond the range of SAMs. This is also the first time I've heard of anyone making a concerted effort to discuss the mobility of patriot missiles.

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I don’t know about the Patriot system, but I remember watching a CCTV7 program in which the HQ6 system (all systems) was able to packup and move out in 10-20 minutes, forgot the exact timing.

tphuang said:

Here is something to think about. China fires 2000 rockets/missiles into Taiwan on Day 1. Let's say the SAMs can move around freely. Are they going to be intercepting munitions or are the going to be running around until they lose complete contact with command centers and everything else?

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There is always the possibility ROCA has some SAM systems stowed away in caves and structures and use them with the help of American AEW assets, hit-n-run style.

Anlsvrthng said:

The current usage of Starlink is to give USA controlled communication means to the CIA assets in China, and giving them the means to organise unrest againt the Chinese institutions, and advance the USA interest.

Of course it can be used in the event of a war by Taiwn, and they will use it.


I can power a starlin terminal with my excercise bike, it doesn't consume too much electiricty.

The ground stations irrelevant, the satelites communicate with each other. Means the intra starlin terminal communication doesn't need ground station.

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A couple of points

1. After the Pelosi visit, Elon Musk publicly tweeted that the best option for Taiwan is to come to an agreement with China. That was not a popular view in the US but he said it anyway

2. Musk has also publicly assured China that Taiwan won't be getting Starlink. Of course, that stance could change. But remember that his are his top priority is the possible extinction of humankind. Both nuclear war or catastrophic climate change could cause this, if China and the US get into a war over Taiwan.

AndrewS said:

A couple of points

1. After the Pelosi visit, Elon Musk publicly tweeted that the best option for Taiwan is to come to an agreement with China. That was not a popular view in the US but he said it anyway

2. Musk has also publicly assured China that Taiwan won't be getting Starlink. Of course, that stance could change. But remember that his are his top priority is the possible extinction of humankind. Both nuclear war or catastrophic climate change could cause this, if China and the US get into a war over Taiwan.

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Musk has no world about this issue now.


The Starlink become one of the tool of the CIA/USA military until the arrival of Starshield. And even afterwards.


And the starlink main use would be to destabilise the Chinese societi from inside, by giving hard to detect tool to the CIA assets in China.

As well give to the CIA spyes communaction means in the event of any war to give infomration about the military moves .

vincent said:

I don’t know about the Patriot system, but I remember watching a CCTV7 program in which the HQ6 system (all systems) was able to packup and move out in 10-20 minutes, forgot the exact timing.

There is always the possibility ROCA has some SAM systems stowed away in caves and structures and use them with the help of American AEW assets, hit-n-run style.

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Patriot cannot hit and run, it needs an hour to set up. That was the point being made before (by myself and others).

It isn't really designed to counter aircraft anymore, all the work since the 80's has been geared towards protecting fixed sites from missile and rocket attacks (and used against drones, but this is highly cost inefficient).

TK-2 and 3 are basically Patriot clones, so they also have this shortcoming. All of Taiwan's investment into Patriot and TK-series was based on the 90's fear of PLA 2nd Artillery (as it was named at the time, now PLARF) saturating the island with IR/SRBMs as they were the main weapon PLA had at the time to hit Taiwan island reliably. PLA has now completely evolved their strike assets such as J-16D and J-15D in the near future, which do not even have a Russian equivalent, so it is a completely novel type to meet the PLA's specific needs that it identified on it's own.

Comparing to HQ-6 is not even in the same class or tactics. Of course HQ-6 can do this, it is designed to be mobile from the start. The closest thing in NATO/US inventory to such a SAM (that could perform hit and run) would be NASAMS/ESSM (NASAMS 2). This has active radar seeker. Taiwan is also testing their localized equivalent TC-2/HC-2 (aka TC-2N) which can be ground based as well and used in this way. However, this is not in full production yet.

NATO doesn't really have this Ground Based Air Defense as part of their doctrine. They have basically given up on this role since the 70's. Everything is counting on Air Supremacy. The Soviet philosophy of GBAD (which China is following) was based on the lack of forward basing and power projection ability like NATO, so they need the coverage. Of course China has the local power projection advantage, but they clearly desire to keep this capability in general.

With TC-2 SAM, they can try this tactic, but something like Starlink cannot provide them with the kind of data to discriminate targets. If PLAAF sends out a mixed flight of J-16 and drones as a screen, the SAM cannot discriminate between them easily without a main radar.

Is there an easy and very quick way for a soldier to destroy several mobile phones?

I saw a video in the early weeks of the Ukraine War of a small group of Russian soldiers, moving through the Kiev region, shooting two security guards at a car dealership after a brief chat and gift of cigarettes. The Russian soldiers had turned around on their way and seemed to think for a moment before heading back towards the security guards to shoot them. I don't think the soldiers shot the security guards out of cruelty. The Russian soldiers in the Kiev region, where the population is generally very hostile towards them, felt threatened by the presence of civilians with phones. Hostile civilians can send coordinates and essentially call in artillery strikes. The video made me wonder, would the soldiers have killed the civilians if they had a tool to quickly and easily destroy phones (cut it in half)?

Anlsvrthng said:

Musk has no world about this issue now.

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Yes, he made his views clear 2 months ago and hasn't retracted this.

Anlsvrthng said:

The Starlink become one of the tool of the CIA/USA military until the arrival of Starshield. And even afterwards.


And the starlink main use would be to destabilise the Chinese societi from inside, by giving hard to detect tool to the CIA assets in China.

As well give to the CIA spyes communaction means in the event of any war to give infomration about the military moves .

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As for Starshield, let's see what happens as it is a separate network that will have to be paid for by the US gov

beijing_bandar said:

Is there an easy and very quick way for a soldier to destroy several mobile phones?

I saw a video in the early weeks of the Ukraine War of a small group of Russian soldiers, moving through the Kiev region, shooting two security guards at a car dealership after a brief chat and gift of cigarettes. The Russian soldiers had turned around on their way and seemed to think for a moment before heading back towards the security guards to shoot them. I don't think the soldiers shot the security guards out of cruelty. The Russian soldiers in the Kiev region, where the population is generally very hostile towards them, felt threatened by the presence of civilians with phones. Hostile civilians can send coordinates and essentially call in artillery strikes. The video made me wonder, would the soldiers have killed the civilians if they had a tool to quickly and easily destroy phones (cut it in half)?

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Smash it with the rifle stock

supersnoop said:

Smash it with the rifle stock

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My thought too. However, I hope the PLA runs a test. If it takes more effort and time than expected to destroy the mobile phones of a group of civilians under the immense stress of combat it could lead to tolerance for civilian casualties. I wonder if the rifle stock can be slightly modified in some way to make the process of smashing phones even quicker.

Barefoot said:

Does Canada have a navy (If they do now, maybe not for much longer)?

Dear China, this will teach you to not embarrass Trudeau.

Canada to send more warships through Taiwan Strait in signal to China​

"...

Speaking from Bucharest where she was attending a Nato foreign ministers’ meeting, Joly said Canada was “committing to new military assets” in the Indo-Pacific to help ensure peace and stability there. She was speaking just after Canada released its first strategy for the region which called for a “once-in-a-generation shift”.

The Nato ministers in Bucharest held a wide-ranging discussion on China, as the US urges the transatlantic security alliance to pay more attention to the ramifications of possible Chinese military action against Taiwan.

... [blah blah blah]."

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We have more warships ? They are probably running them in circle to make it look like they are not the same ones...

My Fair assessement on the Taiwan-China clash if the frontline opens.

As everyone else knows China is obviously the favourite but that doesn't mean Taiwan can be counted out. First of all we have to take into account that Taiwan is cut off from the mainland giving them somewhat conventionally a head start.

They have quite a capable armed forces and armed to the teeth and they seem to be motivated to hold the land despite waves of Chinese attacks which is where the battle will enter meat-grinder status.

China will not be able to streamroll Taiwan and I am saying this as someone who supports China and acknowledges the 1 china policy and I am saying this so that the PLA supporters don't easily get disappointed because it is completely fine that Taiwan holds for atleast 2 years until they run out of resupplies or even 3 years depending on how much they have stucked up.

The biggest chellenge for China will be ethablishing a hold on one of the coasts so that they can endlessly re-supply that coast and land on the Island without issues.

As for the air-superiority Taiwan will fiecerly contest the air despite the Chinese having stealth fighters Taiwan's f-16s are in the fight due to being formidble for air-superiority and can take on anyone model or version up in the skies..

The air-superiority will be contested closely but China could come on top later on due to sheer numbers of jets but it will come at great cost. As for the control of the ocean China will take control of it immediately surrounding the Island in embargo style.

War duration estimation: It depends on China's will power and motivation to take the Island because if the chinese lose heart mid-way campaign the Taiwans will repel them and declare victory. Hence a highly motivated china that won't accept defeat at all costs and willing to sacrifice all of their armed forces will eventually overwhelm Taiwan depending on Taiwans arms depot stock size it can last for 2-3 years or max 4 years before the Chinese completely liberate the Island but it will come at heavy price