ROCA plans to fly its planes to the at the start of hostilities, so tt is not out of place for them to ignore the initial missile and bomb barrage.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Dear China
The NDAA establishes for the first time a dedicated Taiwan-specific "defense" initiative to "enhance interoperability" for joint US/Taiwan military operations -- "full-scale" exercises will be conducted Eerie how much this resembles US/Ukraine policy in the run-up to the war
Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative: established 2015
Joint Multinational Training Group, Ukraine: established 2015
Taiwan Enhanced Defense Partnership (eerily similar provisions): established 2022
There will now be an "enduring rotational US military presence" in Taiwan
The NDAA establishes for the first time a dedicated Taiwan-specific "defense" initiative to "enhance interoperability" for joint US/Taiwan military operations -- "full-scale" exercises will be conducted Eerie how much this resembles US/Ukraine policy in the run-up to the war
Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative: established 2015
Joint Multinational Training Group, Ukraine: established 2015
Taiwan Enhanced Defense Partnership (eerily similar provisions): established 2022
There will now be an "enduring rotational US military presence" in Taiwan
That's great in theory, but they can't hide everything.
Something will be hit. For example, I highly doubt PAVE PAWS will be anything but rubble after first strike.
Obviously you have contingencies, but to use a sports analogy, you better put out your best lineup for the playoffs. There's nothing to save them for if you lose.
This discussion of Starlink and Patriots and ELINT seem quite fanciful in my opinion.
As long as the Mainland can build drones more quickly and for less money than Taiwan can build or buy SAMs, then the Mainland will eventually win in the air. Either Taiwan uses all its SAMs to shoot down drones, or the drones will find the SAM sites and either render them inop directly, or provide targeting data for rockets and cruise missiles.
And I'm pretty sure the Mainland can build lots and lots of drones.
As long as the Mainland can build drones more quickly and for less money than Taiwan can build or buy SAMs, then the Mainland will eventually win in the air. Either Taiwan uses all its SAMs to shoot down drones, or the drones will find the SAM sites and either render them inop directly, or provide targeting data for rockets and cruise missiles.
And I'm pretty sure the Mainland can build lots and lots of drones.
Just for reference, I consume 1200 calories in a hour during exercise, approz 1.4 kwh, it equivalent of 0.3 kwh energy generation on the bike pedal.
The generators has 90-95% efficiency, the carnot cycle has 30% efficiency.
Means I can transoform the food to usefull work by 20% efficiency.
Anyway, starlink terminal consume 45-75 watt,means I can power with one hour of pushing the metal the terminal for 6 hours.
best of me was 450 watthour, means I can power a starlink terminal on a daily basis for 8-9 hours if there is 1800 spare calories.
The rellay is more likelly financial rather than technical prblem, musk planning to roll out the starltink to the ships, and they haven't got ground base close enought.
Most likelly the sat-sat comm cut back the available bandwitdht for consumers.
And anyway, a repeater station for startlin kcan be made by two terminal on the same place connected together, and programmed for different satelites.
Don't flatter yourself. If Taiwan is at a point where they can't rely on solar panels and must use human-powered generators to power up starlink receivers, then the war is clearly over. Even if diehard Taiwan separatists didn't surrender, the masses would have surrendered long time ago.
I also doubt there will be any fighting will left when things start to look like this. Even if it is doable doesn't mean it is feasible. All those city scum from DPP will be the first to throw up.
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it really isn't. Without American leadership, it would be suicidal for anyone else to get involved.
You are going to compare American technology in 90s to current Chinese technology? Do you know how many ISR and ELINT assets China is able to put in the theater? Or the level of sensor fusion they have? PLA wouldn't need to destroy all fuel on the island. It just needs to destroy enough where Taiwanese army can no longer function. And based on what Patch explained to me before, it should be well within their capability.
How do you think F-22/F-35s do their communications? All these thing have low emissions. So do the latest Chinese aircraft. Guess what, the latest ELINT aircraft will need to pick up transmissions.
another thing that Patch talked about. Helicopters will be very effective and can use other structures to block themselves from getting locked on by stingers and SHORADS. Now, we do expect some helicopters to take hits, but PLA will have enough assets that won't be an issue. Again, plenty of EW and ELINT aircraft in the air to disrupt this and pick up emissions.
This is definitely a new one. This is the first time I've heard of anyone that thinks you can just pack up patriot missiles and move them before PCL191 rockets arrive. The latest stand off missiles they've add are all meant to be fired from beyond the range of SAMs. This is also the first time I've heard of anyone making a concerted effort to discuss the mobility of patriot missiles.
Here is something to think about. China fires 2000 rockets/missiles into Taiwan on Day 1. Let's say the SAMs can move around freely. Are they going to be intercepting munitions or are the going to be running around until they lose complete contact with command centers and everything else?
It is well within PLAAF capabilities to take out the airbases on the east coast with stand off missiles. You gotta understand that PLAAF has been doing daily sorties around Taiwan ADIZ and getting proper reading on Taiwan responses. At this point, they have a better handle of how Taiwan would respond better than anyone else. And with the recent missile launches, they've tested the air defense radar capabilities out and assessed that the Pave Paw radar was able to detect anything.
It's too bad for Taiwan that American military assesses that Taiwan would need to hold out for 45 days! Unless 7th fleet wants to counter PLA by itself, all this interoperability won't matter all that much. But, it definitely makes the politicians feel better.
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