Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

I believe it takes more time to prep to fire, not really a shoot and scoot system.

Have to keep in mind that all of Patriot upgrades since its initial development have focussed on taking out missiles rather than aircraft.

In your scenario, Patriots are being saved to take out PLAAF? But what do you do with all the BM and CM coming down?

FairAndUnbiased said:

Starlink is highly unlikely to have frequency hopping capabilities, so narrow band jammers can be used.

Click to expand...

I mean, can't the PLA just jam the whole frequency spectrum for Starlink and Link 16 aswell? The surely dont lack of assets to do so, so no unwanted signals come through.


Btw how does China's Link 16 equivalent compared to link 16?



I only have this info from Uni for Link 16 regarding frequency, hopping, aswell as the link to the literature

vincent said:

I assume China will not attack American and its vassals’ bases at the beginning to avoid draw them into the conflict.

Shooting American AEW assets is an escalation step. Depends on the American response, PLA may start to attack American assets in the West Pac in the next escalation step. I don’t see China going for an all out war scenario right off the bat.

Patriot missile system and Skybow II system are technically mobile. They can hide in an underground garage somewhere and PLA will not be able to find them. They only come out when American transmits PLAAF assets in the area through Starlink, and run to another hiding place after shooting down the PLAAF assets.

Starlink dishes are tiny and can be carried in a backpack. They can’t be destroyed, especially if they are not transmitting or only transmit a tiny amount for transmission packet validations/corrections.

Click to expand...

Couple of points

1. The Chinese Air Force can have surveillance aircraft constantly in the air with a a radar line of sight over all of Taiwan, barring the radar shadows caused by hills and mountains. It takes time to setup and move SAM systems, so they can be tracked and destroyed

2. Would we see many manned Chinese aircraft flying over Taiwan? Remember that Shaheeds are essentially flying JDAMs that can get to the target by themselves (1500km+ range), rather than need to be dropped at short range by an aircraft. Yes, Shaheeds are easy to shoot down, but they're so cheap (probably less than a $25k JDAM) that you don't care if air defences shoot some down. After all, a manned aircraft should have to operate in the same airspace if it wanted to drop JDAMs

Barefoot said:

Does Canada have a navy (If they do now, maybe not for much longer)?

Dear China, this will teach you to not embarrass Trudeau.

Canada to send more warships through Taiwan Strait in signal to China​

"...

Speaking from Bucharest where she was attending a Nato foreign ministers’ meeting, Joly said Canada was “committing to new military assets” in the Indo-Pacific to help ensure peace and stability there. She was speaking just after Canada released its first strategy for the region which called for a “once-in-a-generation shift”.

The Nato ministers in Bucharest held a wide-ranging discussion on China, as the US urges the transatlantic security alliance to pay more attention to the ramifications of possible Chinese military action against Taiwan.

... [blah blah blah]."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Dude, people from Canada don't think much of their so-called military. The Canadian military has been underfunded for most of this century and it's preceding decades. It's a joke.

vincent said:

I assume China will not attack American and its vassals’ bases at the beginning to avoid draw them into the conflict.

Shooting American AEW assets is an escalation step. Depends on the American response, PLA may start to attack American assets in the West Pac in the next escalation step. I don’t see China going for an all out war scenario right off the bat.

Patriot missile system and Skybow II system are technically mobile. They can hide in an underground garage somewhere and PLA will not be able to find them. They only come out when American transmits PLAAF assets in the area through Starlink, and run to another hiding place after shooting down the PLAAF assets.

Starlink dishes are tiny and can be carried in a backpack. They can’t be destroyed, especially if they are not transmitting or only transmit a tiny amount for transmission packet validations/corrections.

Click to expand...

Have you thought about how this would work? America has 4 E-3C in Asia and they are old to the point where they often can't even get one in the air. If they deploy AEW asset, it would have to move their 7th fleet carrier group close enough to Taiwan. By that point, PLA would consider America is now involved in the conflict.

patriots and skybox are not something you can set up in like 20 minutes. China found out in the recent exercises that aside from the Pave Paw radar in Leshan mountain, none of the other radars can detect anything. At this point, PLAAF has the Taiwan air defense radar and missile system entirely figured out from their daily sorties around Taiwanese ADIZ.

Where is Taiwan going to get the electricity? All the power stations and backup power stations are going to get destroyed in the first few days. There will be persistent helicopters and UAVs over Taiwan air space looking to hunt down any troop movement. There will be EW assets flying around jamming and collecting electronic emissions from within Taiwan. It will be very easy for them to figure out where the transmissions are coming from and going after those targets.

vincent said:

I assume China will not attack American and its vassals’ bases at the beginning to avoid draw them into the conflict.

Shooting American AEW assets is an escalation step. Depends on the American response, PLA may start to attack American assets in the West Pac in the next escalation step. I don’t see China going for an all out war scenario right off the bat.

Patriot missile system and Skybow II system are technically mobile. They can hide in an underground garage somewhere and PLA will not be able to find them. They only come out when American transmits PLAAF assets in the area through Starlink, and run to another hiding place after shooting down the PLAAF assets.

Starlink dishes are tiny and can be carried in a backpack. They can’t be destroyed, especially if they are not transmitting or only transmit a tiny amount for transmission packet validations/corrections.

Click to expand...

Even if Taiwan can keep their starlinks operational, what good is it going to do?

Militaries can maintain communication just fine even with radio transmissions. They'll be able to shitpost on twitter, but that's about it.

tphuang said:

Have you thought about how this would work? America has 4 E-3C in Asia and they are old to the point where they often can't even get one in the air. If they deploy AEW asset, it would have to move their 7th fleet carrier group close enough to Taiwan. By that point, PLA would consider America is now involved in the conflict.

Click to expand...

Japs have four E-767 and Aussies have six E-7A.

tphuang said:

patriots and skybox are not something you can set up in like 20 minutes. China found out in the recent exercises that aside from the Pave Paw radar in Leshan mountain, none of the other radars can detect anything. At this point, PLAAF has the Taiwan air defense radar and missile system entirely figured out from their daily sorties around Taiwanese ADIZ.

Click to expand...

How can PLA knows for sure Taiwanese forces couldn't detect its planes?

tphuang said:

Where is Taiwan going to get the electricity? All the power stations and backup power stations are going to get destroyed in the first few days. There will be persistent helicopters and UAVs over Taiwan air space looking to hunt down any troop movement. There will be EW assets flying around jamming and collecting electronic emissions from within Taiwan. It will be very easy for them to figure out where the transmissions are coming from and going after those targets.

Click to expand...

Diesel generators can be stored on pickups. There is no way for the PLA to destroy all sources of diesel on the island

I believe Starlink transmissions are directional so they are very difficult to detect unless your ELINT plane flies into the transmission directly. Downloading targeting data of the area shouldn't take long so the chance of Starlink transmission being discovered is next to nil

vincent said:

Japs have four E-767 and Aussies have six E-7A.

Click to expand...

Now you are moving the goal post. You are saying Japan will definitely get involved, which they themselves would disagree with. Yes, there are real article that discussed this. You are also saying that Aussies are going to get involved without America getting involved. That's on top of flying in from 3500 km away. If there is going to any special mission aircraft that helps Taiwan, it will be American ones.

vincent said:

How can PLA knows for sure Taiwanese forces couldn't detect its planes?

Click to expand...

They have a lot of EW and ELINT aircraft around Taiwan + also a lot of spies in Taiwan. This is based on what Guancha guys said. I really doubt they'd say something like that by themselves.

vincent said:

Diesel generators can be stored on pickups. There is no way for the PLA to destroy all sources of diesel on the island

Click to expand...

where is the diesel going to come from? PLA will be having UAVs and helicopters destroying all refineries and refined fuel in Taiwan.

vincent said:

I believe Starlink transmissions are directional so they are very difficult to detect unless your ELINT plane flies into the transmission directly. Downloading targeting data of the area shouldn't take long so the chance of Starlink transmission being discovered is next to nil

Click to expand...

starlink emissions are not going to be harder to detect than emissions out of F-22 or F-35. Let's be real here. Starlink was never built to hide itself from top of the line military grade ELINT/SIGINT aircraft.

So, you are going to have ROCA never having trained with starlink and on the run all day from PLA air strikes somehow get set up with star link in the middle of a conflict. And make the connection without giving away its position and then remaining silent until 1 small transmission just so that SAMs can get targeting data for something.

Let's say that ROC Army is even capable of this, why do think PLA would still allow long/medium ranged SAMs to be operational by this point. Just the sheer number of PCL191 rockets + stand off missiles/PGMs from fighter/bombers followed by persistent attacks from helicopters and drones should destroy any air defense capability that Taiwan has.

tphuang said:

Now you are moving the goal post. You are saying Japan will definitely get involved, which they themselves would disagree with. Yes, there are real article that discussed this. You are also saying that Aussies are going to get involved without America getting involved. That's on top of flying in from 3500 km away. If there is going to any special mission aircraft that helps Taiwan, it will be American ones.


They have a lot of EW and ELINT aircraft around Taiwan + also a lot of spies in Taiwan. This is based on what Guancha guys said. I really doubt they'd say something like that by themselves.


where is the diesel going to come from? PLA will be having UAVs and helicopters destroying all refineries and refined fuel in Taiwan.


starlink emissions are not going to be harder to detect than emissions out of F-22 or F-35. Let's be real here. Starlink was never built to hide itself from top of the line military grade ELINT/SIGINT aircraft.

So, you are going to have ROCA never having trained with starlink and on the run all day from PLA air strikes somehow get set up with star link in the middle of a conflict. And make the connection without giving away its position and then remaining silent until 1 small transmission just so that SAMs can get targeting data for something.

Let's say that ROC Army is even capable of this, why do think PLA would still allow long/medium ranged SAMs to be operational by this point. Just the sheer number of PCL191 rockets + stand off missiles/PGMs from fighter/bombers followed by persistent attacks from helicopters and drones should destroy any air defense capability that Taiwan has.

Click to expand...

I think it is right to suggest E767 and E7 would be utilized by US forces.
It might be a case of transferring the planes to US control if Japan and Australia do not want to get directly involved.

However, I do agree with you that it is highly unlikely that Taiwan LR and MR SAM would exist. Saving them for aircraft means you have allowed missile strikes to hit unabated. What did you sacrifice to save the SAMs? What is the overall strategy that would allow for this?

tphuang said:

Now you are moving the goal post. You are saying Japan will definitely get involved, which they themselves would disagree with. Yes, there are real article that discussed this. You are also saying that Aussies are going to get involved without America getting involved. That's on top of flying in from 3500 km away. If there is going to any special mission aircraft that helps Taiwan, it will be American ones.

Click to expand...

Please read my posts again. I have always said US and its vassals

tphuang said:

They have a lot of EW and ELINT aircraft around Taiwan + also a lot of spies in Taiwan. This is based on what Guancha guys said. I really doubt they'd say something like that by themselves.

Click to expand...

It is hubris to base your planning on that

tphuang said:

where is the diesel going to come from? PLA will be having UAVs and helicopters destroying all refineries and refined fuel in Taiwan.

Click to expand...

All it takes to run a diesel generator for hours is a barrel of diesel. If US can't find SCUD launchers in deserts of Iraq, then there is no way for the PLA to destroy all fuel on the island. PLA can probably destroy 90% of it but never 100%

tphuang said:

starlink emissions are not going to be harder to detect than emissions out of F-22 or F-35. Let's be real here. Starlink was never built to hide itself from top of the line military grade ELINT/SIGINT aircraft.

Click to expand...

Tight beam transmissions have only small volumes. You can't detect them unless you run into them
Have you seen microwave transmission towers in the country side? They pointed at each other to do their thing. I assume they don't fry things around them because they are using tight beam transmissions.

tphuang said:

So, you are going to have ROCA never having trained with starlink and on the run all day from PLA air strikes somehow get set up with star link in the middle of a conflict. And make the connection without giving away its position and then remaining silent until 1 small transmission just so that SAMs can get targeting data for something.

Click to expand...

I assume the restart of civil war, if it ever happens, is still many years away. There is nothing to prevent ROCA to buy a few Starlink dishes, pay the subscription fees and start training with them today. They can train in the US if there is no coverage in Taiwan at the moment.

tphuang said:

Let's say that ROC Army is even capable of this, why do think PLA would still allow long/medium ranged SAMs to be operational by this point. Just the sheer number of PCL191 rockets + stand off missiles/PGMs from fighter/bombers followed by persistent attacks from helicopters and drones should destroy any air defense capability that Taiwan has.

Click to expand...

The usage of helicopters is not advisable because ROCA has plenty of Stingers. MALE drones can be shot down by Stingers as well. ROCA can disperse troops armed with Stingers in the area where the SAM operates to take out all drones.

The flight time of the PCL191 rockets may be too long to take out SAM that practice shoot-and-scoot. Fighter/bombers in the area are the ones being targeted by mobile SAMs.