Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
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How to do that if the American and Japanese AEW assets are flying over the Yaeyama Islands? Despite being close to Taiwan, they are still legally recognized as Japanese territory, and doing so would mean an act of war against Japan and the US (if that isn't the intention of Beijing).

That's why Russia did not shoot down NATO AEW assets flying over Romania, Poland and the Baltic states.
Shooting down American and its vassals' AEW assets is an act of war already. Where they are is irrelevant.

Russia doesn't shoot down NATO's assets because its conventional forces are much much weaker than NATO's. I am certain by the time mainland restart the civil war, PLA will have local superiority in West Pac.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
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Diesel generators to provide power for Starlink receivers.
The ground dishes can probably set to receive only, no transmission. In a restart civil war scenario, American and Japanese AEW assets can provide the search radar function and transmit the locations of PLAAF's assets to Taiwan air-defense forces through Starlink. The Taiwan air-defense missiles then point their fire-control radar to the targets and fire off the missiles. The radar only needs to be on for a few minutes till the missile reaches terminal guidance phase, then the radar gets turn off and the brigade moves to another location.

I'm sure that's what is happening in Ukraine. In a restarted civil war, China needs to make clear to the US and its vassals that PLA will take out all hostile AEW assets around Taiwan Island.
where are these American/Japanese AEW assets coming from? If they are still around, then PLARF hasn't bee doing their job. Your comment about Taiwanese AD missiles also don't make sense. Why would it matter if they turn off their radar? PLA knows where the SAMs and radar are located and they will get targeted very heavily in that initial barrage of rockets and missiles.

There won't be starlink receivers. They will get destroyed.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
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What are you talking about? There won't be any electricity power in Taiwan or surrounding regions that might support it. And China will have 24/7 EW aircraft coverage jamming signals. That's before we talk about the satellites themselves that China will have ASAT weapons for if Elon doesn't play ball. This is a non issue. If you want to discuss further on this, we have a Taiwan thread.
The current usage of Starlink is to give USA controlled communication means to the CIA assets in China, and giving them the means to organise unrest againt the Chinese institutions, and advance the USA interest.

Of course it can be used in the event of a war by Taiwn, and they will use it.


I can power a starlin terminal with my excercise bike, it doesn't consume too much electiricty.

The ground stations irrelevant, the satelites communicate with each other. Means the intra starlin terminal communication doesn't need ground station.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
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Moderator - World Affairs
where are these American/Japanese AEW assets coming from? If they are still around, then PLARF hasn't bee doing their job. Your comment about Taiwanese AD missiles also don't make sense. Why would it matter if they turn off their radar? PLA knows where the SAMs and radar are located and they will get targeted very heavily in that initial barrage of rockets and missiles.

There won't be starlink receivers. They will get destroyed.
I assume China will not attack American and its vassals’ bases at the beginning to avoid draw them into the conflict.

Shooting American AEW assets is an escalation step. Depends on the American response, PLA may start to attack American assets in the West Pac in the next escalation step. I don’t see China going for an all out war scenario right off the bat.

Patriot missile system and Skybow II system are technically mobile. They can hide in an underground garage somewhere and PLA will not be able to find them. They only come out when American transmits PLAAF assets in the area through Starlink, and run to another hiding place after shooting down the PLAAF assets.

Starlink dishes are tiny and can be carried in a backpack. They can’t be destroyed, especially if they are not transmitting or only transmit a tiny amount for transmission packet validations/corrections.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Starlink satellite dishes are small enough. All the necessary equipment for setting up a Starlink unit can be fitted inside your typical car.

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In fact, because it is so easy to use and versatile to deploy, Starlink has been utilized by the Ukrainian military in the ongoing Ukraine War, and has already seen expanding usage across the US military.

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SpaceX even developed and officially unveiled the military version of Starlink, the Starshield just yesterday:

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Unless you want the PLA to carpet-nuke every single spot on the Taiwan island, China should envisage methods to bring down Ma Yilong's tens of thousands of Starlink and Starshield satellites in case of war, while making sure that such methods would be more affordable and more flexible than the cost to build, launch and operate those Starlink and Starshield satellites.

Of course, China would have to come up with its own, civil-military fusion version, i.e. HongYun Project (虹云工程) and XingYun Project (行云工程). These two would be part of the "Five Clouds" Project (五朵云工程) currently under development by the CASIC.
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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The current usage of Starlink is to give USA controlled communication means to the CIA assets in China, and giving them the means to organise unrest againt the Chinese institutions, and advance the USA interest.

Of course it can be used in the event of a war by Taiwn, and they will use it.


I can power a starlin terminal with my excercise bike, it doesn't consume too much electiricty.

The ground stations irrelevant, the satelites communicate with each other. Means the intra starlin terminal communication doesn't need ground station.
Generators are ~30% efficient and Starlink takes 100W. So you'll need 300 watts of production. But even maxing during weightlifting gets you only 400-500 watts, and nobody can max weightlift all day.

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You can't power Starlink by muscle.

Starlink also does not have satellite to satellite communication, SpaceX admitted that it was too expensive.

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, the frequency is mostly empty other than Starlink and some western satellite TV, the directionality is known since the satellites are being tracked in orbit at all times, and the phase is known because you can measure it with RF sensors. If you know frequency, directionality and phase, you can easily selectively jam the frequency and nothing else, at very low power. A jammer at 10 km distant can easily overpower a satellite at 500 km distant. And in fact, you can even use 12 GHz band for 5G (see article), which vastly overpowers weak satellite signals, so you'd basically have jammers simply for having 5G.

In summary - you can't clandestinely power Starlink, but even if you could, it wouldn't do you any good since it still needs ground stations within 500 km, but even if it didn't, it can still be jammed easily, and even if it wasn't, you can 'accidentally' jam it by simply using 12 GHz stations for 5G.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Any Asian countries that are able to even moderately plan ahead from the future do absolutely not want to normalize using military force to claim territory in Asia.

Lets say US can do a Crimea style takeover of Taiwan province. What's the next step then? I guess if American invasion works, it would really mean the end of the communist party in China. At least its current form. It'd be replaced with a nationalist movement, like the one you see in Ukraine today.

Of course, they would not run the economy as well as current China. But they don't need a well run economy. They still control the no 1 economy and industry in the world, even if its stagnating under their leadership, they can just put pedal to the metal on the military.

And by that point, America itself normalized annexation in Asia. So anyone who helped USA naturally becomes target for revenge. When the National Republic of China finishes its preparation and goes to war, it will not just be over its own territory, it will expand across Eurasia, with absolutely terrible consequences for everyone in the path.
A fascist China will be truly terrifying. They can pick anyone within 100 years wronged China which includes everyone basically. Population is limitless for a conventional war and has industry to bring the world to a nuclear holocaust. For sake of humanity this must never happen.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
I assume China will not attack American and its vassals’ bases at the beginning to avoid draw them into the conflict.

Shooting American AEW assets is an escalation step. Depends on the American response, PLA may start to attack American assets in the West Pac in the next escalation step. I don’t see China going for an all out war scenario right off the bat.

Patriot missile system and Skybow II system are technically mobile. They can hide in an underground garage somewhere and PLA will not be able to find them. They only come out when American transmits PLAAF assets in the area through Starlink, and run to another hiding place after shooting down the PLAAF assets.

Starlink dishes are tiny and can be carried in a backpack. They can’t be destroyed, especially if they are not transmitting or only transmit a tiny amount for transmission packet validations/corrections.

I don’t think Patriot can be fired like that.
 
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