Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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AndrewS

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ACuriousPLAFan said:
China should fully expect the US and Australia to either bordering on intruding Indonesian airspace, or ouright disregard Indonesian airspace sovereignty, or both, in times of war with China.

To counter this, China should start working towards striking backdoor deals with Indonesia, which would allow Indonesia to play as a vital defensive barrier along China's southern frontier, while refrained from becoming an active participant of the war itself.
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It would be better if the China-Indonesia agreements on neutrality were made more publicly

Too many Americans think Indonesia is going to roll over and agree to whatever the Americans want.

Indonesia as a neutral nation is perfectly fine from China's point of view.
 
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Lime

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AndrewS said:
It would be better if the China-Indonesia agreements on neutrality were made more publicly

Too many Americans think Indonesia is going to roll over and agree to whatever the Americans want.

Indonesia as a neutral nation is perfectly fine from China's point of view.
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The US invades Taiwan means the collapse of UN. No country except the west will support the US at that time.
 
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Chevalier

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ACuriousPLAFan said:
China should fully expect the US and Australia to either bordering on intruding Indonesian airspace, or ouright disregard Indonesian airspace sovereignty, or both, in times of war with China.

To counter this, China should start working towards striking backdoor deals with Indonesia, which would allow Indonesia to play as a vital defensive barrier along China's southern frontier, while refrained from becoming an active participant of the war itself.
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daifo said:
Indonesia previously stated that they are staying neutral in the power struggle
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Wether Indonesia likes it or not, it has to pick a side, the same way Norway back in WWII complained about British and German ships intruding and mining their waters until the nazi invasion.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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escobar said:
CN should fully expect Indonesia to allow US bomber
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589946221573320706
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Nah, Indonesia wouldn't allow us bomber to land during a war between us and china for the same reason phillipines won't allow. It is just entirely unsurvivable.

Any other suggestion like this by an Indonesian fanboy that probably hates china is just idiotic. They have no concept of the work it would take to sustain bomber presence far away from continental USA.

People, when you make suggestions that are obviously going to piss people off on this forum, please at least make plausible logical argument.
 
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tphuang

tphuang

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And seriously for everyone that's involved in this discussion, it is very obvious where us military is looking to set up their bases outside of the ones in Japan and Guam. It's going to be Diego Garcia, tindal and possibly Palau or other north Mariana islands. But realistically, other north Mariana islands and Palau run into the same issue as Guam except that there is much less infrastructure to support military presence. Ace sounds catchy, but us military is doing very minimally to make it even slightly viable. The only noticeable projects under way are tindal expansion and possible additional air defense at Guam. Let's have discussions about real propositions.
 
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Biscuits

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escobar said:
CN should fully expect Indonesia to allow US bomber
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589946221573320706
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Lmao in peacetime China is parking DDGs in Sydney as well.

During wartime, Indonesia doesn't want burning B52s to crash right into their cities. How will they explain to their civilians? Better to dodge this hot potato all together by declaring neutrality.

tphuang said:
And seriously for everyone that's involved in this discussion, it is very obvious where us military is looking to set up their bases outside of the ones in Japan and Guam. It's going to be Diego Garcia, tindal and possibly Palau or other north Mariana islands. But realistically, other north Mariana islands and Palau run into the same issue as Guam except that there is much less infrastructure to support military presence. Ace sounds catchy, but us military is doing very minimally to make it even slightly viable. The only noticeable projects under way are tindal expansion and possible additional air defense at Guam. Let's have discussions about real propositions.
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If it's Tindal or even further away, it shows that US is almost certainly just bluffing about invading.

They need major buildup in Philippines (ofc only works if they can sway them) and SK if they are to pull off a succesful offense.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Also, I would say this about neutral country overflight. Indonesia or any other asean countries simply isn't strong enough to stop us military or pla from flying by it's air space. This is where initial victory really matters. If china does destroy all of us military fire power in the region and control all sea lanes, then it can pressure neighboring countries to take sides. That actually would make a difference. Its not like us military is able to just put an entire battery of ground attack missiles in Australia that threaten air defenses. If anything, that would probably push Indonesia to buy weapons from china. As such, I would expect china to be able to force Indonesia to either do something about over flight or allow it's navy to station really close to Indonesia islands to intercept bombers and similar things. I would also expect long endurance drones long wl3 to roam the air and intercept bombers if they don't have appropriate escorts.

I would also expect china to utilize it's allies in Cambodia, Myanmar and Pakistan to further project it's presence.
 
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Chevalier

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tphuang said:
Also, I would say this about neutral country overflight. Indonesia or any other asean countries simply isn't strong enough to stop us military or pla from flying by it's air space. This is where initial victory really matters. If china does destroy all of us military fire power in the region and control all sea lanes, then it can pressure neighboring countries to take sides. That actually would make a difference. Its not like us military is able to just put an entire battery of ground attack missiles in Australia that threaten air defenses. If anything, that would probably push Indonesia to buy weapons from china. As such, I would expect china to be able to force Indonesia to either do something about over flight or allow it's navy to station really close to Indonesia islands to intercept bombers and similar things. I would also expect long endurance drones long wl3 to roam the air and intercept bombers if they don't have appropriate escorts.

I would also expect china to utilize it's allies in Cambodia, Myanmar and Pakistan to further project it's presence.
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In for a penny, in for a pound; if Indonesia is allowing the PLA or the USN to station assets in its own territory, may as well go the whole hog and pick a side since the other side is going to consider Indonesia a valid military target
 
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