Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

One thing I noticed from the Russia-Ukraine war is the lack of nighttime operations from the majority of the Russian forces. So my question would be, how well equipped and trained is the PLA to conduct night operations?

This should affect all levels, ISR, infantry, armour, helicopters etc.

Depending on how a potential Taiwan scenario develops, the ability of the whole PLA to comprehensively operate in night-time could be a big advantage against ROC armed forces

siegecrossbow said:

If the US still had the ambitions of WWII or even Cold War era America, this may very well work at the risk of potential nuclear annihilation. However, this does not appear to be the case.

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Aye but i would not underestimate the tendency for the West, specially the Anglosphere to resort to a world war against China if they think it will help them remain on top.
In Anglo speaking societies those who favour war tend to be the middle privileged (predominantly white) classes who will not be on the front lines and those in the broken homes part of society who hope to find meaning in war, ie the young male Incels, the Brenton Tarrents the altright types.

Vatt’ghern said:

Aye but i would not underestimate the tendency for the West, specially the Anglosphere to resort to a world war against China if they think it will help them remain on top.
In Anglo speaking societies those who favour war tend to be the middle privileged (predominantly white) classes who will not be on the front lines and those in the broken homes part of society who hope to find meaning in war, ie the young male Incels, the Brenton Tarrents the altright types.

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Can you stop taking us off topic? There is another thread for the type of posts you have been posting here. Your comments have not to do with Ukraine.

tphuang said:

Can you stop taking us off topic? There is another thread for the type of posts you have been posting here. Your comments have not to do with Ukraine.

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Apologies, noted.

Overbom said:

One thing I noticed from the Russia-Ukraine war is the lack of nighttime operations from the majority of the Russian forces.

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I'm wondering, how much territory has been captured during night time, and how does that compare to Iraq, for example? We've seen a lot of munitions hit during the night, and some Russian gunship footage. However, if someone has a good source showing that Russia did slow down the pace of operations significantly during the night please post it.

It's possible this is another one of the myths based solely on twitter content posted by civilians.

Things I've learnt from this conflict that could be applicable to the Taiwan conflict.

• A MASSIVE coordinated propaganda campaign against China on all forms of media. Initially it will be government lead but as the atrocities are created it'll quickly become an organic movement. Both English and Chinese media will be affected.
• Some countries will go as far as to make it illegal to condone or support Chinese actions (Latvia).
• All Chinese companies operating in the west will be at risk of losing business deals, even threats of seizures.
• Chinese internet services will all be banned. Within hours of declaration of war, "anonymous" will emerge and DDOS attack multiple government site and media services.
• ICANN will attempt to block Chinese sites from the internet - I'm not sure if this only affects .com or if .cn can be targeted as well.
• Chinese citizens in the west, so far at least public ones will be expected to denounce the actions of China or face losing their jobs. No sign yet it will affect those of us born in the west, but Russians can blend in easier.
• Explusion of diplomats, including diplomats to the UN on trumped up charges of "spying". Attempts to expel China from the UNSC. The UN secretary general which is supposed impartial will take an anti China stance.
• I doubt the sanctions that Russia is being threatened can even be applied to China, it's questionable that they can realisticly be applied to Russia. But it's worth considering if the west is feeling suicidal.
• Closure of airspace to Chinese registered airlines.
• Nuclear diplomacy to point of DEFCON 1/2

This list isn't exhaustive, I'll probably add more if I think of something.

KYli said:

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No, nations like Indonesia and the Philippines would be learning the exact opposite lesson from Ukraine, which is: we should not provoke a much more powerful neighbor, because we are sure to be losers if war starts even if the US does help and and may well be wiped from existence if the US doesn't.

Also, having "small groups of US forces scattered on small islands hopping around on amphibious vessels" is Marine Corps attempting to justify its continued relevance to Congress, when in fact conflict between US and China will be decided by air, navy, space and cyber.

Abominable said:

Things I've learnt from this conflict that could be applicable to the Taiwan conflict.

• A MASSIVE coordinated propaganda campaign against China on all forms of media. Initially it will be government lead but as the atrocities are created it'll quickly become an organic movement. Both English and Chinese media will be affected.
• Some countries will go as far as to make it illegal to condone or support Chinese actions (Latvia).
• All Chinese companies operating in the west will be at risk of losing business deals, even threats of seizures.
• Chinese internet services will all be banned. Within hours of declaration of war, "anonymous" will emerge and DDOS attack multiple government site and media services.
• ICANN will attempt to block Chinese sites from the internet - I'm not sure if this only affects .com or if .cn can be targeted as well.
• Chinese citizens in the west, so far at least public ones will be expected to denounce the actions of China or face losing their jobs. No sign yet it will affect those of us born in the west, but Russians can blend in easier.
• Explusion of diplomats, including diplomats to the UN on trumped up charges of "spying". Attempts to expel China from the UNSC. The UN secretary general which is supposed impartial will take an anti China stance.
• I doubt the sanctions that Russia is being threatened can even be applied to China, it's questionable that they can realisticly be applied to Russia. But it's worth considering if the west is feeling suicidal.
• Closure of airspace to Chinese registered airlines.
• Nuclear diplomacy to point of DEFCON 1/2

This list isn't exhaustive, I'll probably add more if I think of something.

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take into accounts that taiwan is not a sovereign country, so I don't think some of the points here will be applied, never the less, this is pretty much expected, hence why the duel circulation economic model, China is a world in it's own.

In another hand, the mainland has always been pushing for peaceful reunification, it is the west that's been hyping up all the tension, but the leaders in Beijing understand the importance of patience and the diplomatic games, unless the west is suicidal enough to provoke Tsai to claim independence, the initiative is always in the mainland's hand.

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My 2c:

1. Nuclear deterrent works. Unwillingness to take mass casualties in a foreign war is another weakness of America. The US is not willing to get into a direct fight with Russian due to the threat of nuclear escalation and mass casualties.

2. Because of point 1, preemptive strike on US bases doesn't make sense, it will turn public opinion and get America directly involved. Taiwan is an island, blockade and no-fly zone are sufficient to block the US from sending aid.

3. Morale of both sides is important.
a) The war needs to have a good justification to get the public on board. It is better for China to wait for provocation from Taiwan such as declaring independence, but China needs to be prepared to strike at a moment's notice. Also need to get the troops to believe in the cause.
b) From , the living condition and morale of the Russian military seem to be really bad. If the Chinese media is to be believed PLA discipline and willingness to fight should be much better. Making self-sacrifices is a traditional value of PLA and historically it has relied on it to make up for the short falling of equipment quality.
c) Does the Taiwan army have the resolve to become something like the Ukraine army or will it be more like the Afghans. Both Ukraine and Afghans are defending their homes, yet because one is unwilling to fight the Afghan regular army didn't put up much resistance.
d) Just as there seem to be lots of Russian soldiers unwilling to use force against the civilians, PLA will probably not be willing to use arms against civilian resistance until the main fighting is over and PAP peacekeeping forces are deployed.

4) Ruaf MIA is the most perplexing. Air support has always been important and Russians are doing a bad job at it. Where are their manned jets and UAVs?

Finally, the most important thing is will both sides learn the correct lessons from Ukraine?

Jason_ said:

No, nations like Indonesia and the Philippines would be learning the exact opposite lesson from Ukraine, which is: we should not provoke a much more powerful neighbor, because we are sure to be losers if war starts even if the US does help and and may well be wiped from existence if the US doesn't.

Also, having "small groups of US forces scattered on small islands hopping around on amphibious vessels" is Marine Corps attempting to justify its continued relevance to Congress, when in fact conflict between US and China will be decided by air, navy, space and cyber.

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Nah, the real difference is , for ASEAN countries, we can actually sanction them, efficiently