Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

daifo said:

Doesn't work too well in the west anymore since the social media/host companies practice certain types of censoring post-trump/post-jan6. Also after watching every western media either bringing up "human rights" or "genocide" daily (even sports journalist) during the Olympic coverage, it is doubtful any information that is not align with the western view will get thru.

Like Douyin for tiktok, they can create a weibo for outside of China. Attract foreign users and also allow "free speech". At the very least, they have the mechanism to not censor/ban pro-china view points.

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Actually, I think for this particular case, it would have worked if these were done before the war starts.

My follow contemplation is for before the war starts:

First of all, if Putin all-of-a-sudden acted like a whiny Trump and made impossible/outlandish demands for Ukraine to (only) dis-arm and dis-band the Azov battalion and arrest their unit leaders for prosecution on "nazi suspect" grounds, the western media will not try to block the news. On contrary, they will seize the story and make a huge fuss about "Putin's Real intention is actually using the Azov-problem as a pretext for war". Because this suits their interest.

The more Putin whines, they more the western media will cover it. the news idea will mostly be:
-> Putin is hiding his real intention, using Azov as a pretext for invading and annexing Ukraine. He actually wanted to invade Ukraine, war is coming!
-> Azov are Nazi-sympathizers, but so is Putin a fascist. Neo-nazism is also rampant in Russia. They are also linked with Trump and American far-right.
-> Azov are racist and antisemitic, European neo-right euro sceptics politicians like Le Pen are also nazi-sympathizers.
......

I think the western MSM will churn out the above. Because it would suit the goals and intentions of the liberal left globalists commanding the US now:
-> They want escalation of tension between Nato/EU and Russia. (War mongering)
-> They want to strengthen their general globalist left-leaning principles, at least nominally. (Thus must seize any chance to bash "Nazis" and "Fascists")
-> They want to be able to use their ideological "enemy" strawman as often as possible, in order to condition the mass audiences to think in their engineered way. This include tactics of identity politics: branding their real enemies with their memetic strawman (nazis/fascists), and even bluntly associating them together (saying that Putin, Trump, Le Pen, Eurosceptics conservatives are in bed together). Thus creating a simple division of "us-vs-them". And putting "them" altogether in the same basket.

This is how the MSM behaves. If Putin had been more social-media-dynamic savvy, he would have done those and see the MSM and social media behave in the above way.

If he did this, it might not necessarily mean that today he would be in a much different position. but it will create for him a much more un-united/divided MSM for the first 3 to 5 days of the campaign.

siegecrossbow said:

If China actually:

1) inform the soldiers more than 24 hours before the actual invasion of Taiwan
2) use more sophisticated communication devices than taobao ham radio sets.

It would have done a better job already than Russians in Ukraine. Sad, but true.

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Using training exercises prior to an invasion and saying as little as possible to rank and file is common. It makes sense to have as few people know as possible about what your real intentions are. In the 80s the Americans had the Able Archer military exercise, a lot of people suspect Reagan were contemplating a real nuclear war.

Very few countries have the overwhelming advantage like America v Iraq or Afghanistan.

It didn't work for Russia obviously, because Russian intelligence is leaky.

Russian POWs do seem to be talking a lot. Does the PLA have a US style code of conduct?

Jason_ said:

The ROCN frigates are infamous for having pathetic, functionally non-existent air defense capabilities. The Type 056 with its HQ-10 beats all of them in anti-air.

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Cheng Kung (Perry) has SM-1MR
Kee Lung (Kidd) has SM-2MR
Both are formidable SAM that obviously outrange HQ-10
Only problem for ROCN is that the Radars are old

Biggest lesson for China: there is no brotherhood in war. Putin fought thinking that the Ukranians are are a Slavic brother in trouble, whom he must rescue from mental poisoning while preventing as much harm to them as possible. He fought them like a man trying to restrain his crazed little brother or son. Even though Russia ultimately still stand to win, Russian troops paid for this mentality with thier lives. Putin should have ordered his generals to strkie all major areas in Ukraine with some many missiles and bombs before going in that the Ukranians beg to the skies upon deaf ears to surrender. His troops, young men who pledged to fight and die for Russia, should take precedence over mentally poisoned Ukranians any day.

If China must resort to violence with Taiwan, the main thing to remember is to hit hard and without mercy. They are Chinese brothers and all Chinese brothers should be willing and happy to die for the good of China, so without hesitation, oblige them if they are in the way. Only upon guaranteed safety to Chinese troops and guaranteed mission success of taking Taiwan should there be an oppertunity provided to the enemy to surrender.

manqiangrexue said:

Biggest lesson for China: there is no brotherhood in war. Putin fought thinking that the Ukranians are are a Slavic brother in trouble, whom he must rescue from mental poisoning while preventing as much harm to them as possible. Even though he ultimately still stands to win, his troops paid for this mentality with thier lives. They should have struck all major areas in Ukraine with some many missiles and bombs before going in that the Ukranians beg upon deaf ears to surrender. His troops, young men who pledged to fight and die for Russia, should take precedence over mentally poisoned Ukranians any day.

If China must resort to violence with Taiwan, the main thing to remember is to hit hard and without mercy. They are Chinese brothers and all Chinese brothers should be willing and happy to die for the good of China, so without hesitate, oblige them if they are in the way. Only upon guaranteed safety to Chinese troops and guaranteed mission success of taking Taiwan should there be an oppertunity provided to the enemy to surrender.

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The biggest difference between China and Russia, is that Russians are much more outward going, straight forward and less likely to retrain themselves than China.
Chinese people usually won't over-react to provocation instinctively.

This means that by the time Chinese people act, it would have already accumulated a LOT of pent up anger and hatred already. So China is more like a ”笑面虎“. When She finally snaps, she overkills.

Russia is more like a big bear (gentle giant), she is more likely to react immediate, and her very existence is menacing, but will surprise you with her reluctance to use all out brute force.

KYli said:

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Not going to bother reading an article from an analyst that works for a US base conservative think tank.

Abominable said:

Using training exercises prior to an invasion and saying as little as possible to rank and file is common. It makes sense to have as few people know as possible about what your real intentions are. In the 80s the Americans had the Able Archer military exercise, a lot of people suspect Reagan were contemplating a real nuclear war.

Very few countries have the overwhelming advantage like America v Iraq or Afghanistan.

It didn't work for Russia obviously, because Russian intelligence is leaky.

Russian POWs do seem to be talking a lot. Does the PLA have a US style code of conduct?

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During the Galwan clash Chen Hongjun had ten of his fingers broken and all of his teeth smashed in because he refused to be taken captive. What do you think?

KYli said:

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Are they forgetting this?


The Europeans need other countries' money and natural resources in order to maintain their 1st world lifestyles and the US is reluctant to do anything by themselves. The countries in history that have the least natural resources of their own also have the most aggressive history of invading others. It's no coincidence. Are they planning to be the monster that rampages and terrorizing the countryside again? Not in today's world where they'll get nuked. So where is this new bravery of the West coming from when they sit back and watch Ukrainians fighting this war against Russia for them?

Bltizo said:

Let's put it this way -- between the DPP and between the current trend of US govt/blob attitudes towards China, I feel like the salami slicing towards China's red lines on Taiwan are going to increase, and with it will be a much increased risk of war.

There is also the factor that the US providing so much material and rhetoric/geopolitical support to Taiwan could embolden the govt on Taiwan to believe they can push for more open formal independence (or other equivalent red lines) due to the belief that the US will protect them -- I.e. moral hazard.

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That's the biggest risk and has been the driving factor since Trump took office. The salami-slicing has been going on for quite some times now and the so-called One China policy has been hollowing out significantly.

People would be too naive to think, at this stage, that cross-strait stability can be maintained because Taiwanese are closer to Southern Chinese and DPP are moderate and self-restraint, etc. etc. The US's China containment policy will only accelerate in all aspects. The US ruling class are simply too unhinged and too delusional to be rational. They won't stop pushing until they're checked and deterred. Just look at the Russia's evolving strategic environment. When the dust settles on the Russia-Ukraine war, expect the hostilities against China to increase even more regardless the result of the war.

Bltizo said:

In terms of the military balance across the strait and between China and the US, I agree that I think time is on China's side.

But geopolitically, I do not think the short to medium term bodes well, and the risk of the US or Taiwan crossing China's red line in the next 5-10 years is very high.

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Time is on China's side, which means the US is even more desperate before the balance of power is completely shifted to China's favor.

China's redlines will soon be crossed, one after another. Simply put, China needs to prepare for the war, not because China wants to start a war but because the war will be imposed upon her. The better China is prepared, the less likely the war is to break out. Or, at least, China will not be humiliated when the war comes. This is not to suggest that the US wants a war on Taiwan. They don't, but their policy will drive them into a war with China - they don't feel they should stop and they expect China to accommodate. Just like the Russia situation.

The war preparation needs to be very comprehensive, from strategic deterrence to tactics, and from military to finance, technology and diplomacy. It would be ludicrous if the PRC leadership are still thinking about spending 1.3% GDP on defense. China has the capacity and capability. In fact, a significantly increased defense spending and even a moderate arm race is quite healthy and helpful to the economy. Most of the defense spending will be recycled within the domestic economy via high-tech R&D and manufacturing and related services; they can replace some of the real estate investments, e.g., which are simply too high with diminishing returns and are losing the steam now.