Sure, but Taiwan government even under dpp is weary of such rhetoric from us politicians. This has been probably the least confrontational dpp government in the history. And that's a reflection of their fear of china's military.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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It kinda is (dogmatic)
You're citing the status quo again. I thought we were discussing future optimizations.
Using drone swarms and CMs for SEAD/DEAD is fast becoming a very valid option.
....?
The same way you ground them with fixed wing strike missions. By targeting runways, hardened shelters and ammo/fuel dumps.
In fact, most of the munitions your aircraft will use will already be CM/Standoff. You can follow-up with fixed wing strike missions with shorter range LGBs or even dumb bombs, once you've already crippled their IADS and grounded their airforce. Because at that point you have already achieved Air Supremacy. But we're talking about the first phase.
500kg warhead is actually average for CMs, and they have the same options (cluster/unitary etc.)
One of the biggest mistake I think Putin made in this current conflict is that he wasn't politically loud enough and clear enough with a focused nominal goal (名义上的核心目的）.
What he should have done is to first make a harsh demand like:
-> Tell the Ukrainian government to immediately disband the Azov Battalion and arrest its leaders and organizers for prosecution. And threaten to "do it himself" if Ukraine do not comply.
-> Keep on making loud claims of this particular goal, and focus whatever media assets he (or his allies: China, India, friendly middle eastern/Asian countries sick and tired and scared of Neo-Nazi racism) has on making clear his grudge against the Azov Battalion. This is a very effective surface/nominal claimed goals (表面的目的）
The western media will not silence him on the Azov, in contrary, they will try to say that "Azov is NOT his true goal, Ukraine is". And this will play right into the trap, because the more you deny something the more you are also giving coverage for something. And the West can't ignore Putin's anti-Azov claims, because if they do, they will be viewed by people around the world as trying to cover up for Nazi's. And because people natural rebellious attitude (逆反心理）towards authorities. This will have the same effect of Trump's ingenious ”Fake News“ memes couples of years back.
This will also put the Western media on the defensive. Putin can literally act like Trump, and keep on repeating memorable simple phrases like: "They are Nazis", "Covering up for Nazis", "liberal west are closet Nazis", etc.
We Chinese has a old and famous phrase: "名正而言顺". Putin's a very smart leader, but he is simply not as aggressive and proactive in media/propaganda warfare as he should be and could be.
What he should have done is to first make a harsh demand like:
-> Tell the Ukrainian government to immediately disband the Azov Battalion and arrest its leaders and organizers for prosecution. And threaten to "do it himself" if Ukraine do not comply.
-> Keep on making loud claims of this particular goal, and focus whatever media assets he (or his allies: China, India, friendly middle eastern/Asian countries sick and tired and scared of Neo-Nazi racism) has on making clear his grudge against the Azov Battalion. This is a very effective surface/nominal claimed goals (表面的目的）
The western media will not silence him on the Azov, in contrary, they will try to say that "Azov is NOT his true goal, Ukraine is". And this will play right into the trap, because the more you deny something the more you are also giving coverage for something. And the West can't ignore Putin's anti-Azov claims, because if they do, they will be viewed by people around the world as trying to cover up for Nazi's. And because people natural rebellious attitude (逆反心理）towards authorities. This will have the same effect of Trump's ingenious ”Fake News“ memes couples of years back.
This will also put the Western media on the defensive. Putin can literally act like Trump, and keep on repeating memorable simple phrases like: "They are Nazis", "Covering up for Nazis", "liberal west are closet Nazis", etc.
We Chinese has a old and famous phrase: "名正而言顺". Putin's a very smart leader, but he is simply not as aggressive and proactive in media/propaganda warfare as he should be and could be.
When talking about DEAD, we should consider the specific Taiwanese systems. For radar guided SAMs, there are only 4 systems:
Patriot PAC-2/3 - 9 batteries
Sky Bow 1/2 - 6 batteries
Sky Bow 3 - 3 batteries
HAWK - 13 batteries
Among these, Sky Bow 1/2 is completely static. Patriot and HAWK are non-static but not mobile--the time to relocate is measured in hours. Only Sky Bow 3 is theoretically mobile although the mobility is limited to paved roads.
Therefore, for 90% of Taiwan radar guided SAMs, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, rocket artillery and GPS guided bombs attacking fixed designated coordinates are perfectly adequate. Since a 1000km class ballistic missile reaches its target in about 150 seconds, it should be too fast for the Sky Bow 3s to relocate as well.
Patriot PAC-2/3 - 9 batteries
Sky Bow 1/2 - 6 batteries
Sky Bow 3 - 3 batteries
HAWK - 13 batteries
Among these, Sky Bow 1/2 is completely static. Patriot and HAWK are non-static but not mobile--the time to relocate is measured in hours. Only Sky Bow 3 is theoretically mobile although the mobility is limited to paved roads.
Therefore, for 90% of Taiwan radar guided SAMs, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, rocket artillery and GPS guided bombs attacking fixed designated coordinates are perfectly adequate. Since a 1000km class ballistic missile reaches its target in about 150 seconds, it should be too fast for the Sky Bow 3s to relocate as well.
Putin can really learn from Trump.
He should have use simple words and keep on repeating them. Before he goes in, he should let his people hike up #ProsecuteNazis, #DisbandAzov, #LockupNazis, on social media etc. With him making loud and simple and harsh demands to the Ukrainian government: disband Azov, lock them up, or I will do it. He needs to make this a viral topic.
Instead, what Putin did was what every traditional politician does: keep on saying "NATO should not expand", etc. This is not wrong, but an outdated way to do things. For the majority of people, "NATO Extension" is too professional and far away from their domain of familiarity and interest.
Putin should really learn from Trump. Trump might be old, but he is a hell of a new generation of human politician: he is a social-media politician that centers his communication tactics around social-media dynamics (memetic and viral). 流量网红时代的信息传播规律。
He should have use simple words and keep on repeating them. Before he goes in, he should let his people hike up #ProsecuteNazis, #DisbandAzov, #LockupNazis, on social media etc. With him making loud and simple and harsh demands to the Ukrainian government: disband Azov, lock them up, or I will do it. He needs to make this a viral topic.
Instead, what Putin did was what every traditional politician does: keep on saying "NATO should not expand", etc. This is not wrong, but an outdated way to do things. For the majority of people, "NATO Extension" is too professional and far away from their domain of familiarity and interest.
Putin should really learn from Trump. Trump might be old, but he is a hell of a new generation of human politician: he is a social-media politician that centers his communication tactics around social-media dynamics (memetic and viral). 流量网红时代的信息传播规律。
You have to take into account ROCN. One of the primary roles of their frigates is serve as mobile air defense around the island.
Let's put it this way -- between the DPP and between the current trend of US govt/blob attitudes towards China, I feel like the salami slicing towards China's red lines on Taiwan are going to increase, and with it will be a much increased risk of war.
There is also the factor that the US providing so much material and rhetoric/geopolitical support to Taiwan could embolden the govt on Taiwan to believe they can push for more open formal independence (or other equivalent red lines) due to the belief that the US will protect them -- I.e. moral hazard.
In terms of the military balance across the strait and between China and the US, I agree that I think time is on China's side.
But geopolitically, I do not think the short to medium term bodes well, and the risk of the US or Taiwan crossing China's red line in the next 5-10 years is very high.
Doesn't work too well in the west anymore since the social media/host companies practice certain types of censoring post-trump/post-jan6. Also after watching every western media either bringing up "human rights" or "genocide" daily (even sports journalist) during the Olympic coverage, it is doubtful any information that is not align with the western view will get thru.
Like Douyin for tiktok, they can create a weibo for outside of China. Attract foreign users and also allow "free speech". At the very least, they have the mechanism to not censor/ban pro-china view points.
The ROCN frigates are infamous for having pathetic, functionally non-existent air defense capabilities. The Type 056 with its HQ-10 beats all of them in anti-air.
RE: US intervention in Taiwan
I don't think US can force China to sign an Unequal treaty to relinquish Taiwan without going nuclear (in which we all surely die) and without CCP labeled as traitors and toppled by internal unrest as a result of said Unequal treaty. Good luck US! Also, I don't think US-ROC combined forces can reconquer mainland. This isn't 1950's or even 1990's China anymore, you simply don't interfere in a economic and nuclear superpower's unresolved civil war without severely harming your own interests.
Indeed, US likely has the conventional superiority to successfully repel a conventional invasion, but the US leadership lacks the political willpower to endure the economic and human costs of an intervention because China will try again, again, and again to invade. Will US park a kajillion CATOBARS and 5th gens off Taiwan coast until the end of time? How much imperial overstretch is that, why not just reinforce Korea/Japan/Phillipines instead to cut your losses? Most politicians only care to their next electoral cycle and the appearance of toughness, and their anti-China ideology is flexible if the costs are too high. Worst case they can blame WanWanese for cowardice/corruption just like Afghans, Kurds, South Vietnamese when the costs became unbearable.
I don't think US can force China to sign an Unequal treaty to relinquish Taiwan without going nuclear (in which we all surely die) and without CCP labeled as traitors and toppled by internal unrest as a result of said Unequal treaty. Good luck US! Also, I don't think US-ROC combined forces can reconquer mainland. This isn't 1950's or even 1990's China anymore, you simply don't interfere in a economic and nuclear superpower's unresolved civil war without severely harming your own interests.
Indeed, US likely has the conventional superiority to successfully repel a conventional invasion, but the US leadership lacks the political willpower to endure the economic and human costs of an intervention because China will try again, again, and again to invade. Will US park a kajillion CATOBARS and 5th gens off Taiwan coast until the end of time? How much imperial overstretch is that, why not just reinforce Korea/Japan/Phillipines instead to cut your losses? Most politicians only care to their next electoral cycle and the appearance of toughness, and their anti-China ideology is flexible if the costs are too high. Worst case they can blame WanWanese for cowardice/corruption just like Afghans, Kurds, South Vietnamese when the costs became unbearable.
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