I just listened through latest Shilao podcast. I must say they really tore into Russia's performance so far. I don't quite understand why people are still defending them. First they discussed in detail just the awful planning that has gone on so far. But more importantly, they discussed the naiveness in Russia's approach so far. Basically, they said that Russia is trying to do this while not looking like the bad guy by trying to minimize their own casualty, Ukrainian army casualty and Ukrainian civilian casualty. All that has done is maximize their own casualty and caused Ukrainian civilians to suffer longer. Now, I happen to disagree with the way they are framing it. It is quite clear the implication of their language in there. If PLA does decide to attack, it will not have illusion that it will be welcomed in there or be given a pass for gently attacking Taiwan. It will have to assume that all Taiwanese aircraft, armored vehicles and troops have to be destroyed to win the war. And if Taiwanese troop is hiding amongst civilians in buildings, they will not hesitate to launch missiles against that building. They can use guided missiles to reduce damage and civilian casualty, but they have to be prepared mentally that some civilians might die in those scenarios. Such is unavoidable.
Pla people consider that Ukraine should have been an easy war to win. Taiwan would be a far harder operation.
From a personal point of view, I really love the Taiwan society and hope we never get to a point where pla invades Taiwan. And I personally dread the idea that we might see civilian being caught in crossfire getting killed. That's the part that really struck me. War is brutal.
That may be too dogmatic, given the changing landscape of capabilities. Manned fixed wing assets are even more finite and the overall SEAD/DEAD strike package that relies on them could be more expensive and higher risk than using drone swarms and CMs. Point being: the 'golden ratio' would depend on the path you choose to take, and that path needs to depend on the relative capabilities and resources etc.
It really isn't. If you look at what they've deployed on these Taiwan incursions, it's mostly a mix of J-16s, H-6Ks and Y-8/9s. It should be pretty obvious what Y-8/9s are there for. J-10C deployments have happened too, but not as frequent. I'd expect quite a few J-10C brigades to be part of any initial A2A operations. But in terms of EW, ground attack and bombardment, the initial wave of attackers have to be J-16s and H-6Ks. How do you expect to completely knock out air bases with just cruise/ballistic missiles? Dropping massive amount of bombs and munitions is the only way you can complete knock out these places. It's unfathomable why Russia hasn't done the same. How can LACMs fired from hundreds of missiles away deliver as much damage as 250 to 500 kg guided bombs dropped from sky?
