@Jono Bro My guess 2024 after the completion of FAB 21 in Arizona, perfect timing before the November election, helping Brandon or Kamala on their presidential bid. Aside from that with the possibility of war in Taiwan heating up those TSMC employees will be encourage to relocate to the US. Double win for the American. Now the FAB in Taiwan is useless without the people operating it, you can't replace it with SMIC technician who don't have the experience operating an EUVL.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Why shouldn't Chinese agents sabotage FAB21 then? Or employ a stuxnet type virus that renders Arizona non viable.
@Vatt’ghern bro it's a strategic industry thus having strict security protocol and like I said the Chinese Mainlander never experience operating an ASML EUVL machine, how can they able to sneak a virus in?
Bltizo is on spot ,“ war optimism is a disease”, and I want to point out one more thing just to add to it:
War is war , casualties are inevitable, some times, heavy casualties, this idea should be put into people’s mind so they wouldn’t freak out when shit happens.
There are retards preaching people to believe that in our case, war would be easy and casualties would be on enemy’s side, such moronic idea would only backfire and damage our faith and strength during a war, and should be utterly despised.
War is war , casualties are inevitable, some times, heavy casualties, this idea should be put into people’s mind so they wouldn’t freak out when shit happens.
There are retards preaching people to believe that in our case, war would be easy and casualties would be on enemy’s side, such moronic idea would only backfire and damage our faith and strength during a war, and should be utterly despised.
I agree that naval and land assets would be visible during mobilization. Air mobilization would be much faster if one prepares the required supplies beforehand. Many posters have brought up the possibility of hidden warehouses and I would like to point out that the PLA already has many arsenals dispersed throughout Fujian province. For example, in the 1980s it was a bit of an open secret that Xiamen University had a military arsenal in it. The stockpiling of military supplies in dispersed and hidden arsenals is not actually anything new, but in fact quite an old practice.
During the Cold War the PLA built many dispersed arsenals in the hills and urban areas to facilitate its People's War doctrine. The idea was that conventional military units could draw on these arsenals for resupply during a hostile invasion. If the military units became encircled, then they could also base themselves around the arsenals and continue to fight a guerilla war against the enemy. That doctrine no longer applies to the current PLA, but it would be interesting to know which arsenals the PLA has closed, expanded or maintained since the end of the Cold War. Depending on the state of the arsenals a logistics build up could be hidden and much quicker than people expect.
The rhetoric coming from american mouthpieces is goebbels tier; ”throne of Chinese skulls”? Seriously?
someone should inform Americans what happened to the last barbarian tribe who practiced skull cup drinking when they encountered the Chinese, protip I’m referring to the now extinct xiongnu.
I'm reading now that the Russians don't even have the most basic stuff like simple communication devices in order. The soldiers according to reports are using civilian radios and cell phones. Needless to say, coordination between attacks are easily being picked up and jammed. PLA should definitely have these basic things figured out before they want to do anything.
No need to rush things.
There is a time when they'd be ready militarily and another time when they'd be ready economically and politically.
What they can probably do is slowly buildup overtime in number of assets they have in the region and normalize incursion and military exercises around the area, so the final buildup/exercises will not take as much time.
There are some small minute planning, procurement things that they need to work on. Why are people so eager to talk about nuclear weapons?
No need to rush things.
Or simply put. they are not ready. If anything, this Russian debacle shows that China will need even more time than the Politburo planned for. A lot more involved here than just military stuff.
There is a time when they'd be ready militarily and another time when they'd be ready economically and politically.
Right, it's completely unreasonable to think that foreign intelligence would not catch on to a multi-month buildup. However, they can do it and not do anything until the time is right. They can always do a buildup for threat and such.
What they can probably do is slowly buildup overtime in number of assets they have in the region and normalize incursion and military exercises around the area, so the final buildup/exercises will not take as much time.
I agree with vast majority of what you said there, except this part. I think they must launch large scale helicopter air assault to attack from flanks. They must however be well coordinated and have continuous sweeps with fighter jet to clear of SHORAD and any mobile air defense system.
You will definitely not want to have naval ships providing anti-air cover. How are they going to see over the extremely on mountainous terrain of Taiwan? Defeating drones will be left to Air Force sweeps and jamming.
I've asked earlier in this to not bring nuclear into this. If you have nothing to offer on how they can improve their tactics and such, please don't offer nonsense like this. There is an existing Taiwan thread where you can talk about as much nuclear stuff as you want.
There are some small minute planning, procurement things that they need to work on. Why are people so eager to talk about nuclear weapons?
Any trade blockade would be considered war.
Again, you are not offering anything helpful here with this kind of proposal. If you have a question of what would be considered success? If they can capture the 3 largest cities, control all the airwave, communications and clear out SHORAD. With continuous sweeps, this should be doable in a reasonable time period. Who cares if the government itself or guerrilla do not surrender? Once you control the major cities and drop PAP in there, you are done.
Again, please keep other countries out of this. There are crazy extremists everywhere. This is a thread for discussing lessons to be learnt from Ukraine. There are other threads where you can talk about how much you dislike certain country or people.
Check. But complacency creeps in because of a reliance on "common sense" instead of rigorous metrics.
This is problematic, if you have multiple fronts to consider.
Also, I'm not sure if you're using the term "Overmatch" in the technical sense, but I'm sure you know that you don't need Overmatch to win. Supremacy or Dominance can be sufficient, even if they are local (for the smaller side).
Check.
Disagreeing with any of the above should result in an automatic sacking.
Check. There can be smaller tactical level applications (due to geography mostly) for these specific insertions, but your operational level plan should not depend on them.
+ If you are proceeding sequentially, ensuring Air Supremacy should be mentioned here, before a discussion of insertions.
Okay, but coming up with 'golden ratios' depends on how you plan to deal with each problem-set (you have options.)
e.g. "more EW/ECM, more ARMs" for SEAD/DEAD. If you're depending on fixed wing aircraft for this mission, then sure. However, if you're planning on using Drone Swarms and Saturation via Cruise Missiles, you won't need as much ECM or ARMs (but you will need other assets for real-time targeting data.)
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the big question is when US side will start their own buildup to west pacific even with proper intelligence at hand
In theory PLA could go back and forth several times on this in name of drill
Can US play along?
What's the rush? China is not a weak declining power who needs to rush against the clock. China should be fully developed/industrialized and a strong conventional/nuclear force, then still wait for an opportune time when US is quagmired in Middle East and Eastern Europe again, then MAYBE perhaps strike. Maybe this will take +100 years, who know, but Time is on China's side.
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