Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

KYli said:

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The biggest take away: basically assume China can take Taiwan and US won't lift a finger, maybe some sanctions. In the long run US will benefit and get some more base around the Asian regions.

While I fully agree with this take. This is probably why Taiwan doesn't want to be compared to Ukraine. The more navie group still believe the Americans will come and save the day.

All the western analysis is focused on how to use the Taiwan situation to stop China, doesn't think much about what will happen to Taiwan.

My takeaway: a blockade is a bad idea, taking a few small islands to force Taiwan into the negotiation table is even worse idea, and fighting with your hands tied is the worst idea.

Don't ever assume that the Americans would not intervene. Always planning the worst case scenario. If Americans see an opportunities to obliterate the Chinese navy and airforce, it would strike. The possibilities are there. Americans would not engage Chinese ground forces or fighting in a country that bordered China. However, Taiwan is an island. That makes it a whole lot of different. If China couldn't take out Taiwan in a short time frame and show weakness, the US would intervene and try to destroy the Chinese navy.

That's why I would suggest that China going in with a full force. China should try to take Taiwan in days not weeks or months. Massed artillery, missiles, cruise missiles, rocket launchers, and air sorties in the first few hours. Overwhelmed Taiwan with maximum firepower to break their will to fight.

siegecrossbow said:

During the Galwan clash Chen Hongjun had ten of his fingers broken and all of his teeth smashed in because he refused to be taken captive. What do you think?

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Refusing to be taken captive is not the same as what to say or do when taken hostage.

There will always be situations where soldiers end up POWs. Knowing what to to say and not is important as their conduct can be used for propaganda purposes.

The problem with Taiwan is that THERE IS A REDLINE AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT, Taiwan and China are one, Taiwan is the product of a Civil war that has to yet be solved and the U.S, Japan, China and everyone agree, there is not ambiguity about the Taiwan issue, whoever broke that redline will be a fault, whatever is the U.S. recognizing Taiwan independence or China Invading the island without provocation. The problem with Ukraine is was there was not redline the everybody agree, there was always this ambiguity about the Ukrainian status in Europe and in NATO, Russia say one thing and the West another.

KYli said:

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Notice the weasel words: "pause". Westerners will make a story out of any minute grain of truth. Yes, China has 'pause' because of sanctions, but so did US have 'pause' at the audacity of Putin going nuclear WW3 over Ukraine. We Chinese needs atleast 1,000 nuke arsenal to give Westerners 'pause' over Taiwan. Let me write a legitimate article headline: "Russia's willingness to escalate to nuclear over Ukraine crisis should give Western nations pause over Taiwan." They should make me a SCMP headline writer, I just graduated looking for a jerb.

Abominable said:

Refusing to be taken captive is not the same as what to say or do when taken hostage.

There will always be situations where soldiers end up POWs. Knowing what to to say and not is important as their conduct can be used for propaganda purposes.

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There were two Chinese soldiers who got lost in 2020 and 2021 and ventured into Indian camp. They never said anything other than basic information.

Another thing that I wonder if PLA is pursuing is less than lethal methods for disabling or disrupting communications and military hardware. Stuff like graphite bombs for shorting out power lines, EMP warheads for disabling in hardened electronics, etc. This will significantly reduce civilian casualties.

There was a redline that even Pompeo was afraid to cross and that was sending a sitting US official to Taiwan in official capacity; IIRC the plane in question was turned around on orders by Pompeo himself when China said they would force down the plane and to prepare for war. On the eve of the Jan 6th riots, the US was not prepared for a war with China.
However, many US mouthpieces believe a war with China would help unite their country which is in the midst of a cold civil war.

Vatt’ghern said:

There was a redline that even Pompeo was afraid to cross and that was sending a sitting US official to Taiwan in official capacity; IIRC the plane in question was turned around on orders by Pompeo himself when China said they would force down the plane and to prepare for war. On the eve of the Jan 6th riots, the US was not prepared for a war with China.
However, many US mouthpieces believe a war with China would help unite their country which is in the midst of a cold civil war.

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If the US still had the ambitions of WWII or even Cold War era America, this may very well work at the risk of potential nuclear annihilation. However, this does not appear to be the case.