Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Broccoli

Senior Member
Russian initial attack on military targets was done with less than 120! ballistic & cruise missiles and that's why Ukraine was flying aroud with SU-25's until very recently. For comprisons sake US launched more in Syria just to hit fewer targets.

Heavily fortified place like Taiwan would require at least 1000 fired at the beginning.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
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Russian initial attack on military targets was done with less than 120! ballistic & cruise missiles and that's why Ukraine was flying aroud with SU-25's until very recently. For comprisons sake US launched more in Syria just to hit fewer targets.

Heavily fortified place like Taiwan would require at least 1000 fired at the beginning.
There's a good chance much of actual rocket force is constantly on standby as a deterrent against intervention.
I.e. while we don't know depth of Russian missile stocks, actual Russian salvo capability(launchers) is measured in thousands.
The same may've been true for the aircraft.
 

supersnoop

Major
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One of the issues with the Russian bombardment in these early reports is accuracy. They are partially hamstrung because they are trying to avoid mass casualties, and this is being interpreted as "holding back"

I'm seeing quite a few threads here about how the PLA cannot hold back. However, I think the more apt comparison should be the US rather than Russia.

Would anyone say the US is holding back against their Middle East adversaries? The difference is that the US has so many different guided munitions at their disposal, it does not appear that Russia has this same level.

If we are looking at the recent Zhuhai airshows, we can see that there is a similar push for guided munitions, right down to the platoon level (mortars). So even if there is a dug in enemy, you can call for fire without waiting for aircraft (assuming heavy artillery is not available). This is something that Americans used very often in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I think this capability is also why there is such a rush to build out the Beidou constellation. I remember early in the PLA watching days, there were early PGMs using civilian derived GPS guidance. There used to be some debate about how useful these could be in light of the US jamming GPS signals and whether or not it would be degrading their own (owing to the nature of satellite communications). However, with Beidou there is no need to rely on GPS or GLONASS.

I remember in the previous Taiwan threads there was some talk of how a landing should be approached, which port is vulnerable, etc. Looking at the battle over Antonov airfield, I wonder if PLA Special Operations would be capable of holding something like a port and enabling something like a fast ferry to transport heavy vehicles quickly. Of course there is a threat from anti aircraft assets, but Americans are seemingly able to fly in helicopters to anywhere they want even in contested airspace, so I think the key is develop special operations Z-20, and Y-7.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
One of the issues with the Russian bombardment in these early reports is accuracy. They are partially hamstrung because they are trying to avoid mass casualties, and this is being interpreted as "holding back"

I'm seeing quite a few threads here about how the PLA cannot hold back.

By "mass casualties" are they referring to civilian casualties?

If yes, then call it what it is.

Why are these people hiding behind vague terms?

The fact that these people are afraid to even say it, and yet are casually suggesting that professional soldiers should be okay with carrying out atrocities and war crimes, says a lot.
 

zxy_bc

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's weird because you could say the Russian op in Ukraine has many characteristics that PLA could learn, you could also say the Ukrainian situation is so different fro the Taiwan situation that one can't just straight-up use the Russian experience. The Russian tactics are very rooted in the unique doctrine of "speed of all essence" and "don't wait and deal with equipment breakdowns". It adds the whole new essence of "movement is everything".

One can say that the Russian old BTRs have shown many deficiencies in maneuvering long distance on road. Firepower, speed and protection of BTRs are just not suited for long-range missions on highways. RF forces are paying some price for not developing new wheeled assault guns. The PLA, on the other hand, has a shit ton of Wheeled assault guns to travel on highways. (which has the firepower to pound fortifications and tanks, and the mobility to travel long distance on highway)

Russian air Cavs and vdv, as always, had shown the finest capabilities in this combat.
 

zxy_bc

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also fyi, This conflict is more like why Taiwanese strategy of hoarding atgms and manpads won't work. (And yes, the ROC military right now is scared to their bones)
 

zxy_bc

Junior Member
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Also an interesting analysis by RUSI!


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The analysis is a little outdated for today tbh. Since VKS is now fully committed with their SU-34 bombing Kharkov and nearby Ukraine armoured columns. (Also I remember the first day of the war VKS flied numerous sorties of SEAD against Ukraine radar stations as well)
 
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