Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

MrCrazyBoyRavi · Aug 19, 2022

It would be really a foolish idea for China to invade Taiwan before there are enough hotspots around the world to keep US busy. China should either gather enough allies or simply arm the adversaries of its enemy to the teeth.
US does it very well. Poland is probably gonna be the strongest land force in EU nation despite shit economy. Israel is the strongest nation in gulf despite its small size. Korea, Japan are arguibly top 10 military power in the world.
But look in S. America and N.America, there is only US with a respectable Armed force.

China’s non interference policy worked really well for past few decades but I think it’s not enough.
And it doesn’t look cool when the only China’s treat ally, N.Korea, is dirt poor and people are suffering due to western sanctions.

one by one, all nations in so called axis of evil fell like dominos. China instead of being pro-active, to stop this dominos effect, let all those bricks fall and now that its Russian and after that China’s turn to fall. Atleast Russia tried its best to checkmate west in syria and now in Ukraine.

While China is still issuing 1000th last strong warning.

Biscuits · Aug 19, 2022

.

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:
It would be really a foolish idea for China to invade Taiwan before there are enough hotspots around the world to keep US busy. China should either gather enough allies or simply arm the adversaries of its enemy to the teeth.
US does it very well. Poland is probably gonna be the strongest land force in EU nation despite shit economy. Israel is the strongest nation in gulf despite its small size. Korea, Japan are arguibly top 10 military power in the world.
But look in S. America and N.America, there is only US with a respectable Armed force.

China’s non interference policy worked really well for past few decades but I think it’s not enough.
And it doesn’t look cool when the only China’s treat ally, N.Korea, is dirt poor and people are suffering due to western sanctions.

one by one, all nations in so called axis of evil fell like dominos. China instead of being pro-active, to stop this dominos effect, let all those bricks fall and now that its Russian and after that China’s turn to fall. Atleast Russia tried its best to checkmate west in syria and now in Ukraine.

While China is still issuing 1000th last strong warning.

NK is just doing their own shit, China isn't going to control their country for them. Most likely, Kim's plan is to wait for reunification before pushing policies to grow the economy. Why else invest so much in military?

It is better for China not to have a ton of mutual defense treaties in peacetime. If war breaks out, China will be the defender and US the aggressor, so any nation who fears future US aggression will join China as long as China has okay relations with them. If China makes a solid bloc today, it will alienate the enemies of the countries in said bloc. For example, if China put Iran into it's bloc, then it wouldn't be possible to finesse Saudis into switching side.

The EU economies are going down the shitter just from a little friction from Russia. Poland wants to build the strongest land force using what industries?

Russia isn't close to "falling" when its EU who is losing the sanctions war and China hasn't even stepped in to pledge major contributions to Russia yet. Its US which is getting isolated when EU enters winter and the member states start to turn on eachother due to populist US leaders rising against globalist EU leaders.

If (or when) EU becomes too damaged to keep functioning as an entity that answers to the US Axis, then America will be in deep trouble because EU + US still has larger economy than China, but if EU isn't helping, US is left staring down alone vs China's larger economy, industry and sheer control of raw resources.

davidau · Aug 19, 2022

Nutrient said:
I used the Soviet Union as an example that Russia need not be the weaker part of the Russia/China duo.

As everyone in China knows, a dynasty is not forever, and the Communist Dynasty will be no exception. Therefore China must not arrogantly assume that it will always be stronger than the Russians. Treating Russia well is therefore recommended. This is morally right -- and it is also good policy, as many other countries in the world are watching.

A related point: Some people in this forum are encouraging the Chinese to look down on all of China's neighbors; we can see lots of laughter at these countries. The people who do this are not helping China. Of course, the countries that lie about the Middle Kingdom -- and, yes, India is frequently guilty of this -- do deserve some pushback. But in my opinion, China must not start the insults.

Thanks mate. I believe China's repeated foreign policy is to.... treat every nation, big or small, equally, with respect and non-interference in their internal politics.

tphuang · Aug 20, 2022

AssassinsMace said:
Declaring it is pointless. China will most likely be the one that starts military action meaning it will start the war and somehow declaring China won't kill civilians makes it better...? Like I said before the West will use every single civilian death as an example of the China lying and going back on their word. Do you think if the US killed numerous Chinese civilians for Taiwan, the Taiwanese will say the US crossed the line? They won't say a word. The US massacred South Korean civilians at No Gun Ri and the response ranges from saying nothing to telling the South Koreans who bring it up to shut up about it because they wasted American lives for them. The Taiwanese will be supporting the US for that very reason.

The reason why Taiwan and Hong Kong are being used against China is because China agreed to ambiguous nonsense. The US needed China against the Soviet Union and at the time Taiwan was as much of a dictatorship as Mainland China. The British hide behind the rule of law when their own forced treaty says China would get back Hong Kong in the end. Did the British care about democracy over 150 years ago when the treaty was signed? Hell no. So there was nothing in their treaty that cared about democracy for the people of Hong Kong. In both cases... all added nonsense afterwards, aka "strategic ambiguity", that China agreed to when it didn't have to. Why do they do that? It's just like declaring China will not kill civilians in war when it will happen because it's war. The Chinese like ritual because it's all about image and what makes them think they look civilized. Declaring China won't kill civilians in a war is like using a band-aid to help a bullet wound.

Like I mentioned before, the West is spinning everything happening in Ukraine from the beginning as a war crime by Russia. Western pundits even say that Russia now is targeting civilians because the war didn't go as they planned meaning they weren't targeting civilians at the start yet the West is still spinning everything as a war crime. What makes anyone think if China declares it won't kill civilians it will soften the reaction when civilians are killed? The US lied about WMDs in Iraq to use as pretext to go to war. That means everything they did is a war crime regarding Iraq. They is no such thing as some civilians are going to die because it's war as an excuse when the whole war was illegal in the first place. And some Chinese think they can control the narrative like the US can...?

Well, I think it is important for China to adopt strategies that kill as few civilians as possible. Especially if you consider Taiwanese as fellow Chinese people. That's why blockade + degrading ROC Army is probably the best strategy from every aspect. Ukrainian army has been a lot less effective since it got daily bombardment over head. With precision targeting, China should be able to demoralize and degrade ROC combat effectiveness more effectively and quickly before it attempt any landing.

I think it's important for China to be able to cut off Taiwan's communication with rest of the world in any conflict scenario. Videos of bombing and killing of civilians generous would encourage Western participation. It's amazing to me the Russians have been so incapable of degrading such infrastructure. I would expect China to cut Taiwan completely off from rest of the world with those underwater cable, jamming satellite links, destroying TV stations, power grid, refineries and such.

If we look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, Russia has not been able to take out most of the HIMARS despite having air superiority. I just don't see that happening in a Taiwan scenario. China would have the ISR and precision strike capability to target any Taiwanese artillery movement or any movement of armies. If China have not yet achieved that capability, they need to improve there.

ZeEa5KPul · Aug 20, 2022

Nutrient said:
As everyone in China knows, a dynasty is not forever, and the Communist Dynasty will be no exception. Therefore China must not arrogantly assume that it will always be stronger than the Russians. Treating Russia well is therefore recommended. This is morally right -- and it is also good policy, as many other countries in the world are watching.

This is what pop history has done to people. I would rank an asteroid hitting the Earth and wiping out humanity as a far more likely threat than Russia surpassing China.

By the way, this "dynasty is not forever" thing is because China is one of a few countries on Earth who have been around long enough to have cycles of rise and fall. Others haven't existed long enough to have these cycles, or much of a history to begin with.

56860 · Aug 20, 2022

Nutrient said:
I used the Soviet Union as an example that Russia need not be the weaker part of the Russia/China duo.

As everyone in China knows, a dynasty is not forever, and the Communist Dynasty will be no exception. Therefore China must not arrogantly assume that it will always be stronger than the Russians. Treating Russia well is therefore recommended. This is morally right -- and it is also good policy, as many other countries in the world are watching.

A related point: Some people in this forum are encouraging the Chinese to look down on all of China's neighbors; we can see lots of laughter at these countries. The people who do this are not helping China. Of course, the countries that lie about the Middle Kingdom -- and, yes, India is frequently guilty of this -- do deserve some pushback. But in my opinion, China must not start the insults.

From a Russian propaganda mouthpiece:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"Intellect Machine says that the prototype presented at the Army 2022 expo, which was primarily built using Chinese components and technology, cost nearly 1 million rubles (~$16,000). However, the company says it hopes to launch production of these robots in Russia in the near future. "

Russia is now buying alibaba parts to create robots that are inferior in cost and effectiveness to mass-produced, off-the-shelf civilian DJI drones. The gap between the two nations is absolutely gargantuan at this point and will only continue increasing as Russia plows on in day 177 of its 72 hour special military operation.

AssassinsMace · Aug 20, 2022

tphuang said:
Well, I think it is important for China to adopt strategies that kill as few civilians as possible. Especially if you consider Taiwanese as fellow Chinese people. That's why blockade + degrading ROC Army is probably the best strategy from every aspect. Ukrainian army has been a lot less effective since it got daily bombardment over head. With precision targeting, China should be able to demoralize and degrade ROC combat effectiveness more effectively and quickly before it attempt any landing.

I think it's important for China to be able to cut off Taiwan's communication with rest of the world in any conflict scenario. Videos of bombing and killing of civilians generous would encourage Western participation. It's amazing to me the Russians have been so incapable of degrading such infrastructure. I would expect China to cut Taiwan completely off from rest of the world with those underwater cable, jamming satellite links, destroying TV stations, power grid, refineries and such.

If we look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, Russia has not been able to take out most of the HIMARS despite having air superiority. I just don't see that happening in a Taiwan scenario. China would have the ISR and precision strike capability to target any Taiwanese artillery movement or any movement of armies. If China have not yet achieved that capability, they need to improve there.

You can kill as few civilians as possible without saying it. The US and the West are going to say China killed civilians even if there were none killed. Declaring it makes China into a liar because it's going happen any way. Why does Beijing always say the US hurts the Chinese people's feelings? Do they actually believe the US will stop whatever? Why setup China for that trap that's going to be tripped anyway. Is their a manual that defines minimum casualties like some people think there's a neutral arbitrator that will punish the West when they violate human rights? Through the years the definition of terrorism has changed many times to fit the West's narrative. In the Iraq War when the US lied to create a pretext for an illegal invasion, they defined Iraqi insurgents fighting against their illegal war as terrorism against US soldiers. This thread is suppose to be about lessons leaned? To make more mistakes? To help in the enemies' propaganda? Does anyone think Taiwanese civilians are going to say when China invades that the Chinese are killing as few civilians as possible so that makes their invasion of us all right...?

drowingfish · Aug 20, 2022

phrozenflame said:
Does China has plans to paradrop thousands of troops and hardware? or is it just reliant on sea-routes?

I ask because US subs could wreck havoc in the crossing. I feel Subs is still where China lags alot more than other areas.

taiwan strait is not friendly to subs, US subs can do a lot of damage from east of Taiwan but not in the strait.

tphuang · Aug 20, 2022

AssassinsMace said:
You can kill as few civilians as possible without saying it. The US and the West are going to say China killed civilians even if there were none killed. Declaring it makes China into a liar because it's going happen any way. Why does Beijing always say the US hurts the Chinese people's feelings? Do they actually believe the US will stop whatever? Why setup China for that trap that's going to be tripped anyway. Is their a manual that defines minimum casualties like some people think there's a neutral arbitrator that will punish the West when they violate human rights? Through the years the definition of terrorism has changed many times to fit the West's narrative. In the Iraq War when the US lied to create a pretext for an illegal invasion, they defined Iraqi insurgents fighting against their illegal war as terrorism against US soldiers. This thread is suppose to be about lessons leaned? To make more mistakes? To help in the enemies' propaganda? Does anyone think Taiwanese civilians are going to say when China invades that the Chinese are killing as few civilians as possible so that makes their invasion of us all right...?

I'm not really sure the point of your comments. I'm simply saying that it's in China's interest to adopt strategies that would avoid a major slug it out land warfare. It seems like you are hung up on Western propaganda. I think it's in China's interest to keep terrible videos of civilian suffering off social media. And I think it's best for post war rebuilding scenarios if there are fewer civilian casualties.

The Ukraine conflict has done a lot to prepare China for possible responses. Many things have already been discussed. But I think the so called porcupine strategy has been overly discussed by American national security types. Even though I think the entire premise is ridiculous, it's in China's best interest to prepare for that.

For example, how can China counteract Taiwan getting HIMARS, stingers, anti-ship missiles and such. I don't think it's going to be that hard to develop plan, but they will definitely need to develop one and train against it. Taiwanese people have already indicated that they do not want to bleed for American hegemon the way that Ukrainians have done. China should covertly work on ways to continue encouraging that discourse in Taiwanese media.

AssassinsMace · Aug 20, 2022

tphuang said:
I'm not really sure the point of your comments. I'm simply saying that it's in China's interest to adopt strategies that would avoid a major slug it out land warfare. It seems like you are hung up on Western propaganda. I think it's in China's interest to keep terrible videos of civilian suffering off social media. And I think it's best for post war rebuilding scenarios if there are fewer civilian casualties.

The Ukraine conflict has done a lot to prepare China for possible responses. Many things have already been discussed. But I think the so called porcupine strategy has been overly discussed by American national security types. Even though I think the entire premise is ridiculous, it's in China's best interest to prepare for that.

For example, how can China counteract Taiwan getting HIMARS, stingers, anti-ship missiles and such. I don't think it's going to be that hard to develop plan, but they will definitely need to develop one and train against it. Taiwanese people have already indicated that they do not want to bleed for American hegemon the way that Ukrainians have done. China should covertly work on ways to continue encouraging that discourse in Taiwanese media.

You don't understand why is it necessary to declare something that's not going to be true? Just because you say you're not going to kill civilians, that's going to prevent a major slugfest? Civilians are going to die in war. That's a fact. You just look at Hong Kong where they say throughout the over twenty years since China has taken over, Hong Kongers have been secretly abducted by Beijing and then executed. Well if that's true, why don't they name them? If they exist, there's a record of them and therefore proof they're missing. But they don't give any names meaning they don't know these people therefore how would they know they were abducted and then executed. It's because they're lying and they don't exist. So what does declaring China won't target civilians do when they are capable of outright lying about civilians dying? Again is there some magical neutral party that will decide these things that the West will respect? When invasion happens, you've already crossed the Rubicon. Counting on Taiwanese seeing the Mainland as brethren goes out the window. Invasion pretty much says what you have faith that Taiwanese will see Chinese as brethren has failed because that would've prevented conflict in the first place.

Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

MrCrazyBoyRavi

Junior Member

Biscuits

Major

davidau

Senior Member

tphuang

Lieutenant General

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel

56860

Senior Member

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

drowingfish

Junior Member

tphuang

Lieutenant General

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General