Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

I don't think its about declaring anything. Actually it might be best to not declare anything at all in order to not shackle yourself unnecessarily.

Of course the PLA at the ground shouldn't and won't target civilians, so after the first days of bombing, the Taiwanese will quickly learn themselves that as long as they don't do anything stupid (e.g hiding troops in their homes) they will be safe.

The PLA will of course officially retain the right to use lethal force at all and any situations but unofficially at the ground they won't target them.

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Alternatively, the PLA can from day 1 publicly release its guidelines to the Taiwanese population; under what situations they are not safe and what to avoid in order to not risk possible retaliation.

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If a delay of 1 or more days happens, or even no announcement at all, it doesnt matter. Word of mouth can quickly spread so people would soon know how the PLA is treating civilians.

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

It would be really a foolish idea for China to invade Taiwan before there are enough hotspots around the world to keep US busy. China should either gather enough allies or simply arm the adversaries of its enemy to the teeth.
US does it very well. Poland is probably gonna be the strongest land force in EU nation despite shit economy. Israel is the strongest nation in gulf despite its small size. Korea, Japan are arguibly top 10 military power in the world.
But look in S. America and N.America, there is only US with a respectable Armed force.

China’s non interference policy worked really well for past few decades but I think it’s not enough.
And it doesn’t look cool when the only China’s treat ally, N.Korea, is dirt poor and people are suffering due to western sanctions.


one by one, all nations in so called axis of evil fell like dominos. China instead of being pro-active, to stop this dominos effect, let all those bricks fall and now that its Russian and after that China’s turn to fall. Atleast Russia tried its best to checkmate west in syria and now in Ukraine.

While China is still issuing 1000th last strong warning.

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China shouldn't be like the Soviet Union which gave security guarantees to Vietnam but couldn't do anything to support Vietnam directly in the war with China. China can for now only ally with countries that have a land border with China. Pakistan, North Korea and maybe Russia in the future are the only allies that make sense until China has the ability to supply countries like Venezuela like it supplied Vietnam during the war against the US. Giving market access and selling weapons to friendly nations should be obvious of course

AssassinsMace said:

You don't understand why is it necessary to declare something that's not going to be true? Just because you say you're not going to kill civilians, that's going to prevent a major slugfest? Civilians are going to die in war. That's a fact. You just look at Hong Kong where they say throughout the over twenty years since China has taken over, Hong Kongers have been secretly abducted by Beijing and then executed. Well if that's true, why don't they name them? If they exist, there's a record of them and therefore proof they're missing. But they don't give any names meaning they don't know these people therefore how would they know they were abducted and then executed. It's because they're lying and they don't exist. So what does declaring China won't target civilians do when they are capable of outright lying about civilians dying? Again is there some magical neutral party that will decide these things that the West will respect? When invasion happens, you've already crossed the Rubicon. Counting on Taiwanese seeing the Mainland as brethren goes out the window. Invasion pretty much says what you have faith that Taiwanese will see Chinese as brethren has failed because that would've prevented conflict in the first place.

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Again, I have no idea what you are talking about. I haven't said anything about declaring anything. You are the one who can't seem to let it go.

I'm just telling you that as a practice, getting Taiwan to accept re-unification through blockade and degrading military/infrastruture is a more logical approach. A Taiwan army that's half destroyed from persistent artillery and drone targeting isn't going to put up much of a fight. That's what the Ukraine conflict has shown. Now, this thread is about what lesson to learn from Ukraine conflict. I frankly don't care about all this other stuff you are talking about.

A bloody battle in Taiwan while US Navy is coming with several CSGs is not a great scenario for PLA.

tphuang said:

For example, how can China counteract Taiwan getting HIMARS, stingers, anti-ship missiles and such.

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There's not going to be any supply of Taiwan because any battle will begin with China destroying Japan and the US presence there and throughout the western Pacific.

tphuang said:

A bloody battle in Taiwan while US Navy is coming with several CSGs is not a great scenario for PLA.

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Any reinforcement or revenge attack the US would launch against China after its initial rout would only end in further catastrophic US losses.

tphuang said:

Again, I have no idea what you are talking about. I haven't said anything about declaring anything. You are the one who can't seem to let it go.

I'm just telling you that as a practice, getting Taiwan to accept re-unification through blockade and degrading military/infrastruture is a more logical approach. A Taiwan army that's half destroyed from persistent artillery and drone targeting isn't going to put up much of a fight. That's what the Ukraine conflict has shown. Now, this thread is about what lesson to learn from Ukraine conflict. I frankly don't care about all this other stuff you are talking about.

A bloody battle in Taiwan while US Navy is coming with several CSGs is not a great scenario for PLA.

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Then why bother declaring it? It doesn't have to be said. If people believe China will kill civilians, will any of them believe China when they say they won't? If people understand already that civilians will be killed collaterally in a war, then nothing has to be said. Saying it knowing it won't be the case works against China.

ZeEa5KPul said:

There's not going to be any supply of Taiwan because any battle will begin with China destroying Japan and the US presence there and throughout the western Pacific.

Any reinforcement or revenge attack the US would launch against China after its initial rout would only end in further catastrophic US losses.

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Couldn't agree more. China has been prepared for this senerio for a long time. China wouldn't do anything stupid; ecomic blokade, to my limited know;edge, is the best outcome without untold human sacrifice.

ZeEa5KPul said:

This is what pop history has done to people. I would rank an asteroid hitting the Earth and wiping out humanity as a far more likely threat than Russia surpassing China.

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Only people ignorant of China's history are arrogant enough to believe that China will always be strong.

By the way, this "dynasty is not forever" thing is because China is one of a few countries on Earth who have been around long enough to have cycles of rise and fall. Others haven't existed long enough to have these cycles, or much of a history to begin with.

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Didn't Russia go through a full dynasty change when the Soviet Union fell? Or have you fogotten that? The current US dynasty is also falling.

AssassinsMace said:

Then why bother declaring it? It doesn't have to be said. If people believe China will kill civilians, will any of them believe China when they say they won't? If people understand already that civilians will be killed collaterally in a war, then nothing has to be said. Saying it knowing it won't be the case works against China.

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Who said anything about declaring it? I don't know what your problem is. This thread is about what can China learn from this Russian conflict. You are bringing nothing to this conversation.

davidau said:

Couldn't agree more. China has been prepared for this senerio for a long time. China wouldn't do anything stupid; ecomic blokade, to my limited know;edge, is the best outcome without untold human sacrifice.

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The important part is to not be arrogant and know you have to prepare for things to ensure 100% chance of achieving your objectives. If China makes the decision to attack Taiwan, then it needs to figure out a few things.

1) Whether or not it can afford letting America decide if it wants to aid Taiwan. I think it goes without saying that China destroying Taiwan's military and blockading Taiwan as a response to DPP move toward changing status quo would be the least damaging for everyone if America is bogged down on domestic infightings and don't get involved. But China needs to figure out whether or not it can afford to give America/Japan the chance to make that decision.

2) It needs to make the decision for 1) based on whether or not it is confident that it can defeat America without a surprise initial attack.

I'd be curious to hear more stuff on this form @Patchwork_Chimera . I get the sense that America's weak response to the most recent Chinese military escalation has led PLA leadership to think that America is less likelly to get involved due to being distracted by other issues. Again, I'm not comfortable with this position. But I do think what has transpired in the past 2 weeks have made America look really weak in Asia and that will have affect in the power dynamics in westpac. Everyone can see that Pelosi's plane completely avoided SCS and Reagan circles for 2 weeks before heading back to Japan.

If we compare China to Russia. The big difference is that China uses incremental grey zone tactics to change things in its favor. Whereas Russia back in 2008, 2014 and 2022 have outright moved into shooting wars.

tphuang said:

Who said anything about declaring it? I don't know what your problem is. This thread is about what can China learn from this Russian conflict. You are bringing nothing to this conversation.

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People here are or I wouldn't have brought it up. You're debating me about it so you must value it being declared.

tphuang said:

Well, I think it is important for China to adopt strategies that kill as few civilians as possible. Especially if you consider Taiwanese as fellow Chinese people. That's why blockade + degrading ROC Army is probably the best strategy from every aspect. Ukrainian army has been a lot less effective since it got daily bombardment over head. With precision targeting, China should be able to demoralize and degrade ROC combat effectiveness more effectively and quickly before it attempt any landing.

I think it's important for China to be able to cut off Taiwan's communication with rest of the world in any conflict scenario. Videos of bombing and killing of civilians generous would encourage Western participation. It's amazing to me the Russians have been so incapable of degrading such infrastructure. I would expect China to cut Taiwan completely off from rest of the world with those underwater cable, jamming satellite links, destroying TV stations, power grid, refineries and such.

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I think what A-Mace means is that regardless of how much China tries to wage a war whereby it tries to minimize civilian casualties as much as possible, both the populace on Taiwan and foreign overseas media would not give China's military operations a fair look and would portray things in a deliberate way that exaggerates or falsifies events, or outright would simply make things up.

Now, I do see where you are coming from -- realistically, foreign perceptions of China's operations in a Taiwan contingency will certainly have effects on their willingness to materially support Taiwan/oppose China, and taking measures to mitigate that (either through military strategy to minimize civilian casualties, or through cutting off Taiwan's ability to network with the rest of the world, or both).


But A-Mace is not incorrect in that all of this needs to be done with an understanding that everyone should not expect China to get anything near a "fair" coverage from foreign media, and would demonize China regardless of whatever they do, and thus China's efforts may still prove relatively low yield, and so it shouldn't be considered too high of a priority in a way that could compromise the ability to achieve military goals.