We shouldn't make the mistake of comparing Russia to the Soviet union. Even the Russian SFSR was more competent than Russia today. In the 1950s and 60s the Soviet union had almost a third of the population of China, once all the Warsaw pact countries are added it might even be half. Today, Russia has 10% of the population of China. The Soviet Union was an equal that Russia without its empire can't hope to be
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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Okay, I'm not going to indulge in this nuclear talk every time. As we discussed many times, China will want to speed up its push for MAD if it feels greater urgency with regards to nuclear blackmail. There are other threads where people loving talking about nukes, let's please leave it out of this one.
PLA is unlikely to just attack out of the blue. They will likely only attack when provoked by movements toward red line. As such, any initial response would be viewed as logical blowback toward what happened. As such, PLA would get several free days of build up and tiring out Taiwan defense and possibly rerouting crude/LNG carriers from entering Taoyuan and Yung-An LNG terminal. We've already seen what PLA playbook might look like. Large exercises that block the two largest ports around Taipei and Kaohsiung with give them 3 to 5 days of additional effective blockade before any missile get fired. This won't be the last time they have a major exercise like this. Each time, I anticipate their actions to be more aggressive. I anticipate they will station an aircraft carrier east of Taiwan with next major exercise.
Once they tire out Taiwan defense (which hasn't proven to be very hard), both ETC Air Force and PCH191 battalions will have a much easier time disabling the defense and enforce a blockade. If you just look at the quantitative disparity between ESF and ROCN, it won't take very long for ROCN just stop coming out to meet ESF. That's when Taiwanese air defense, naval defense and infrastructure would be at PLA's mercy. Frankly, the Pelosi visit has made it so much easier for PLA to hide an attack.
With or without US involvement, it seems more logical for them to completely tire out Taiwanese defense and deprive them of fighting power before trying a beach landing.
As for subs, that is a major problem. So, their general strategy pre/post 095 would be quite different. Pre 095, it force them staying within 1000 nm of mainland so that they can be covered by MPAs, Surtass ships, SOSUS and such. Even post 095, they will probably still be careful about getting too far off mainland.
It really isn't. The first few days would be just a very long exercise like the one we've had and will tire out ROC response. Once you tire out ROCAF/ROCN under the guise of exercise, that's perfect opportunity to start launching round. Now in wars, countries typically like to provoke the other side into firing the first missile. Without being in PLA strategy sessions, it's unclear to me how they will do this. How do they go from grey zone warfare to a real conflict. How aggressive will their grey zone tactics need to get until ROC military hits back with live fires. I don't know.
PLA is unlikely to just attack out of the blue. They will likely only attack when provoked by movements toward red line. As such, any initial response would be viewed as logical blowback toward what happened. As such, PLA would get several free days of build up and tiring out Taiwan defense and possibly rerouting crude/LNG carriers from entering Taoyuan and Yung-An LNG terminal. We've already seen what PLA playbook might look like. Large exercises that block the two largest ports around Taipei and Kaohsiung with give them 3 to 5 days of additional effective blockade before any missile get fired. This won't be the last time they have a major exercise like this. Each time, I anticipate their actions to be more aggressive. I anticipate they will station an aircraft carrier east of Taiwan with next major exercise.
Once they tire out Taiwan defense (which hasn't proven to be very hard), both ETC Air Force and PCH191 battalions will have a much easier time disabling the defense and enforce a blockade. If you just look at the quantitative disparity between ESF and ROCN, it won't take very long for ROCN just stop coming out to meet ESF. That's when Taiwanese air defense, naval defense and infrastructure would be at PLA's mercy. Frankly, the Pelosi visit has made it so much easier for PLA to hide an attack.
hmm, the assumption here is that they spend the initial part of a conflict just continually degrading Taiwanese military infrastructure and tire out the military, cut off fuel/electricity/communication. Paratrooping thousands of troops into Taiwan seems rather dangerous. I think they will probably given Taiwan government a couple of weeks to surrender and agree to 1 country 2 system proposal rather than landing inside Taiwan.
With or without US involvement, it seems more logical for them to completely tire out Taiwanese defense and deprive them of fighting power before trying a beach landing.
As for subs, that is a major problem. So, their general strategy pre/post 095 would be quite different. Pre 095, it force them staying within 1000 nm of mainland so that they can be covered by MPAs, Surtass ships, SOSUS and such. Even post 095, they will probably still be careful about getting too far off mainland.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The question of how to get Taiwan to fire the first in AR is rather simple - do an exercise and treat any and everything Taiwan or America does in response as escalatory provocations and use those as pretexts to continuously extend and expand the regular scheduled exercises, with randomly changing live fire prohibition zones around Taiwan, with the coast guard challenging any civilian traffic coming towards Taiwan irrespective of whether they are entering an officially declared prohibited zone to establish a de facto blockade without formally declaring it and just run betting pool while they wait to see how long before Taiwan fires the first shot.
There will be regular such cycles of escalations and provocations in the preceding years to make this seem routine to make Taiwan into the boy who always cry wolf while at the same time putting continuous and increasing pressure on Taiwan’s military and economy as well as running the US ragged.
All of these points can be summarized by one overarching problem: Lack of proper officer education and training.
Most (probably all) armies today suffer from this same problem. It's the default problem in all of military history (with a few exceptions.) This is why most offensives usually get bogged down without achieving an efficient or decisive result. Because offense requires creative skill, and armies, by nature, are dogmatic and full of grunts. Most armies filter out talented people from their own ranks, because they are perceived as a threat. Armies don't like people who wanna 'rock the boat.' Those who advance to become generals are the 'yes sir' types. And that's the last type of person you want in-charge of planning and executing a war.
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I think it depends on the timing of the invasion. Blockade becomes an option when the Chinese perceive that the U.S. does not have the ability or will to intervene no matter how much time is available and wanted to demonstrate the impotence of the U.S. The other possibility is that the Chinese do not want to take Taiwan at that time but wanted to send a very strong signal to deter the U.S. Blockades leave the option to reverse it back to the original status quo. Military is an extension of politics. It has to subordinate to the political goals of the Chinese government.
i havent seen anything related to strong or weak description.
they may already have fired 3000 plus cruise missile . most of time when they hit any thing like barracks they use word foreign mercenaries. they are trying portray every one fighting them foreigner. It is going back to idea of one people
they have hundreds of attack choppers in the battle according to Ukraine. and based on videos we can assume they want to fight this war with choppers majority of time.
It maybe there strategy to minimize civilian disruption. People are already returning home from Europa.
They have achieved record trade surplus. It means they had the physical capacity to redirect exports. similar case with imports. how they got original Japanese made cars if rouble not accepted by other countries?. i dont think Russia is going to get too tough on Europa as long Arab wealth is there. Those expensive Airbus are keep selling to Middleast.
This public display of buildup may have to do to put pressure on Europa to get some concessions plus they may want to upgrade Belarus bases for long time deployment. Russia airforce is powerfull enough that can raise to the ground Kiev in one takeoff they dont need convoys. There is nothing to suggest that it is related to capturing Kiev using ground force.
When Russia as was involved in Irak and Syria. it was already anticipating things in Egypt and Libya. based on high quality intelligence they already give backing who the leader should be. than really backed up things with round the clock Cargo flights not only for Russian forces but export contracts also faster than any one else. it is arm chair analysis to think they dont anticipate things not only in Ukraine but much beyond.
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AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Declaring it is pointless. China will most likely be the one that starts military action meaning it will start the war and somehow declaring China won't kill civilians makes it better...? Like I said before the West will use every single civilian death as an example of the China lying and going back on their word. Do you think if the US killed numerous Chinese civilians for Taiwan, the Taiwanese will say the US crossed the line? They won't say a word. The US massacred South Korean civilians at No Gun Ri and the response ranges from saying nothing to telling the South Koreans who bring it up to shut up about it because they wasted American lives for them. The Taiwanese will be supporting the US for that very reason.
The reason why Taiwan and Hong Kong are being used against China is because China agreed to ambiguous nonsense. The US needed China against the Soviet Union and at the time Taiwan was as much of a dictatorship as Mainland China. The British hide behind the rule of law when their own forced treaty says China would get back Hong Kong in the end. Did the British care about democracy over 150 years ago when the treaty was signed? Hell no. So there was nothing in their treaty that cared about democracy for the people of Hong Kong. In both cases... all added nonsense afterwards, aka "strategic ambiguity", that China agreed to when it didn't have to. Why do they do that? It's just like declaring China will not kill civilians in war when it will happen because it's war. The Chinese like ritual because it's all about image and what makes them think they look civilized. Declaring China won't kill civilians in a war is like using a band-aid to help a bullet wound.
Like I mentioned before, the West is spinning everything happening in Ukraine from the beginning as a war crime by Russia. Western pundits even say that Russia now is targeting civilians because the war didn't go as they planned meaning they weren't targeting civilians at the start yet the West is still spinning everything as a war crime. What makes anyone think if China declares it won't kill civilians it will soften the reaction when civilians are killed? The US lied about WMDs in Iraq to use as pretext to go to war. That means everything they did is a war crime regarding Iraq. They is no such thing as some civilians are going to die because it's war as an excuse when the whole war was illegal in the first place. And some Chinese think they can control the narrative like the US can...?
I used the Soviet Union as an example that Russia need not be the weaker part of the Russia/China duo.
As everyone in China knows, a dynasty is not forever, and the Communist Dynasty will be no exception. Therefore China must not arrogantly assume that it will always be stronger than the Russians. Treating Russia well is therefore recommended. This is morally right -- and it is also good policy, as many other countries in the world are watching.
A related point: Some people in this forum are encouraging the Chinese to look down on all of China's neighbors; we can see lots of laughter at these countries. The people who do this are not helping China. Of course, the countries that lie about the Middle Kingdom -- and, yes, India is frequently guilty of this -- do deserve some pushback. But in my opinion, China must not start the insults.
In the long run, China will become stronger than the Russians by all metrics, this is no lie or arrogance on the part of the Chinese or China watchers and military enthusiasts. China knows it, Russia knows it, and the world knows it, so I don't see the point in that answer.
Now I agree with you when you say that the majority here despise China's possible partners like Russia and it is worth remembering here also highlighting China's enemies. Russia in the long run tends to decrease its national power, due to small population and smaller economy compared to China, still, it will be a formidable ally for the Chinese, but Russia will hardly be a vassal state of China as some want to demonstrate here. They will be critical for China both in Europe and in the Pacific, if China needs allies, it needs strong allies, whether economically and militarily, so I am absolutely sure that the MFA and the Chinese top political leadership want allies , not vassal states.
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