Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

AndrewS said:

I think China deciding to go to war and then starting with a blockade is a bad idea. It cedes the initiative to Taiwan and the US.

A blockade is already acknowledged as an act of war.

Suppose the US and Taiwan spend 5 days to prepare, and then launch a first strike against China instead? It's awfully tempting because the Taiwan military is still intact.

In comparison, suppose China was to announce 12 hours of military operations solely against Taiwan and then a blockade? That would result in at least half of Taiwan's air/sea power being destroyed, and reduce the risk of a US decision to intervene. US forces are not in place.

But even then, I think too much of the Taiwanese military would still be intact, and would tempt US intervention. But if China were to conduct military operations for 3 days, I reckon 90%+ of Taiwan's air/sea power would have been destroyed.

And if China continued significant attacks for 1 week, we would start seeing Taiwan's military ground units being attacked. Plus at that point, more US forces would be available, but US intervention will not stop the collapse of Taiwan's civilian economy. The PLA will still retain enough power to enforce an effective blockade for at least 4 more weeks, and Taiwan will have run out of food, fuel and electricity by then. The US would be forced to operate large resupply missions right next to the Chinese coastline.

I just don't see China going with a blockade as the desired military option.

@Patchwork_Chimera

Any comments?

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BoeingEngineer said:

I agree completely !

A blockade will only invite the US to intervene. The US's decision to intervene is mostly depended on China's nuclear might and Taiwan's military to resist !

If China has enough nukes to wipe out the entire West and destroyed 80% of Taiwan's military, then there is no point for US to interfere.

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Biscuits said:

It's uncertain if China can completely level the most faraway US friendly areas like Brazil or Spain when it is focusing on launching at the US itself, but generally "wiping out the entire west" is achievable and has been for decades.

Nuclear blackmail is not a smart game, its just gambling where at worst the stakes will be the destruction of both the west and the east. Only weak states with poor conventional capabilities are forced into using nuclear threats.

In the event of American attack, a rapid sinking of the US invasion force using conventional weapons will force them to sue for peace with minimal risks.

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BoeingEngineer said:

China can also now form an official military alliance with Russia and assist Russia's war on Ukraine.

In exchange, Russia provides joint nuclear counterattack. This will buy China enough time to build its own nuclear superiority to the US and in the mean time allow China to bomb the sh!t out of taiwan and bring taiwan to its keens without having to worry about US nuclear blackmail at the current moment !

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Biscuits said:

It's not as if Russia will stand idly by if US and China level eachother anyways.

US would have to attack Russia as well because when both them and China are dead, Russia will just absorb the survivors from China's bunker networks and take over the world. By the same logic, China and Russia will also attack EU, the Middle East and Brazil.

Nuclear blackmail only works if you're dealing with core territory that everyone understands is important to you.

Nobody would care if US threatened to use nukes if Chinese troops enter Los Angeles, but if US said they would use nukes to attack Taiwan, China would straight up call their bluff. Because unless most of the US oligarchs became insane death cultists intending to cause nuclear apocalypse, they don't have anywhere near the political will to goad the entire nation into committing suicide pact.

Forming hard alliances in peacetime will reduce the diplomatic options of both parties. For example, if China, Russia, India or Pakistan and Iran establishes an official bloc, there will be many nations China cannot sway such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan etc.

Instead, China can just follow the model of how the WW2 Allies were built up. Have a loose network of states that believe in anti-fascism and only form a hard alliance when war starts. That way, China can maximize the size of its bloc, instead of how the Axis did by making large blocs during peacetime with explicit threats against outsiders.

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BoeingEngineer said:

Dont forget india.

india needs to get wiped out and let Pakistan slave all the hindus !!

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tphuang said:

I would need to hear more knowledgeable people on this, but my impression is that the wheeled vehicles that they can quickly move in (over 2 days) are sufficient to at least take over Penghu. And, they can shut down social media around this to prevent so many pictures from getting leaked out on social media. I think PLA will learnt enough to how to discreetly move in armor/artillery in the middle of an exercise without attracting a lot of attention. If China expects Taiwan to push independence more strongly in small steps in the future, it will also take its own measure with each exercise to normalize more aggressive actions. So, I would expect cyber attacks, electronic attacks and sabotage efforts in Taiwan to be at higher scale each time. These are the kind of things they can probably get away without getting noticed by people outside. That I think is what they specialize in. Pushing things forward in small steps that furthers their advantage.

So things that Russians didn't do right:
1) underestimated opponent
2) didn't build up enough missile/ammo outside of artillery
3) didn't build up enough advanced military aircraft that could blanket opponent
4) did not develop enough cyber/electronic attack and sabotage capabilities to degrade Ukraine's basic infrastructure.
5) did not do things in small steps, but a couple of large easily identifiable steps
6) weren't fully trained for every contingency
7) didn't prepare for all possible sanction possibilities.
8) most importantly, took way too long to build up and caused everyone to notice what was happening. And rank and file soldiers did not know they were about to attack.

For every of these exercises, PLA would want to prepare its soldiers for the possibility that any possible missions could replace training rounds with real missiles.

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Biscuits said:

It's uncertain if China can completely level the most faraway US friendly areas like Brazil or Spain when it is focusing on launching at the US itself, but generally "wiping out the entire west" is achievable and has been for decades.

Nuclear blackmail is not a smart game, its just gambling where at worst the stakes will be the destruction of both the west and the east. Only weak states with poor conventional capabilities are forced into using nuclear threats.

In the event of American attack, a rapid sinking of the US invasion force using conventional weapons will force them to sue for peace with minimal risks.

Click to expand...

AssassinsMace said:

Did anyone in the West scold Australia for their soldiers killing unarmed teenagers? No. Does anyone think the US didn't kill any civilians in Iraq? Does anyone think they didn't commit a war crime by starting an illegal war in Iraq based on lying about WMDs in Iraq? No one talks about that because they control the narrative which is why few speak in those terms. And look at the excuses the West makes to say Putin and Russia committed war crimes. And somehow some think there's a magical arbitrator for the world that will hold the West accountable if they committed war crimes...?

This thread is about lessons learned from Ukraine and somehow thinking declaring China won't kill civilians which will happen just when the US killed Iraqi civilians is a good idea? You're setting up China for an unnecessary trap that China will fail to avoid like someone declaring China was going to shoot down Pelosi's plane then didn't. And the West will use every civilian death as an example of China lying. In most scenarios it will be China that starts the war with Taiwan and somehow people think China declaring it won't kill civilians will make China look good...? If China invades Taiwan, China better own it. Your mistake is romanticizing the Chinese when the way you see Chinese only exists in your head. No one else sees Chinese as you do. That's why when Beijing says out loud that whatever the US is doing hurts the Chinese people's feelings, it doesn't promote sympathy as Beijing thinks it will. Instead people are laughing because it makes the Chinese out be little children being bullied looking for sympathy from the bully.

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