Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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pmc

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mossen said:
Very good points. Russia is probably too proud a nation to be completely subservient to China but their technological sophistication in civilian sectors is very far behind China. Being cut off from Western markets gives them little choice but to rely 100% on China barring a sudden diplomatic reversal vis-a-vis the West (which I find extremely unlikely at this point).
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Russia builds own electric buses and working on hyrdogen power now. EV vehicles soon in Moscow plant. this much less technical complexity work.

work on AESA radar elements at Istok is much older than when Japanese/Israeli worked on AESA in 80s. and this interview is 17 years old. work on Diamonds. now they are building atleast 2 additional GaN factories that is foundation of advance telecom.
Interview with S. Rebrov, General Designer of FSUE NPP "Istok"
NPP "Istok" develops technologies for solid-state microwave electronics.
Heat dissipation problems would be greatly simplified by using diamonds, which are four times more thermally conductive than copper. Significant progress has been made in Russia in the technology of gas-phase deposition of diamonds (CVD). Istok has developed a technology for processing CVD diamond films, their metallization and soldering. All this opens up good prospects for us.
Currently, the direction of microwave devices based on wide-gap semiconductor materials, in particular, based on GaN heterostructures, is being actively developed all over the world.
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They are building own ASML competitor.
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AndrewS

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pmc said:
Russia builds own electric buses and working on hyrdogen power now. EV vehicles soon in Moscow plant. this much less technical complexity work.

work on AESA radar elements at Istok is much older than when Japanese/Israeli worked on AESA in 80s. and this interview is 17 years old. work on Diamonds. now they are building atleast 2 additional GaN factories that is foundation of advance telecom.
Interview with S. Rebrov, General Designer of FSUE NPP "Istok"
NPP "Istok" develops technologies for solid-state microwave electronics.




They are building own ASML competitor.
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But in all these examples, it is accurate to say Chinese companies are far ahead of Russia, as per Mossen's assertion.
 
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pmc

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AndrewS said:
But in all these examples, it is accurate to say Chinese companies are far ahead of Russia, as per Mossen's assertion.
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France was also ahead of Russian in automobiles but once breakup happen Russia still managed to built Lada group vehicle with a bit less electronics which is now rectified. the point i am making is this semiconductor field is like Aviation to them. they had conferences in Crimea in 1970s that they are bringing back. Russia has built own operating system, search engine and office software. they are gradually moving towards independent semiconductor supply chain which can even accelerated if they get experience people from west.
Those buses are designed for Russian conditions from ground up. unless Chinese buses are significantly cheaper, longer life and less manpower intensive in overall maintenance in the condition used we cannot conclude what is more advanced.
they starting with lithium mines. so it is not Germanic method of using batteries without mines.
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similar situation is with high powered 4 engine AWACS. the T/R module will be powerfull enough that it need special engines and cockpit design for radiation protection.
 
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AndrewS

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pmc said:
France was also ahead of Russian in automobiles but once breakup happen Russia still managed to built Lada group vehicle with a bit less electronics which is now rectified. the point i am making is this semiconductor field is like Aviation to them. they had conferences in Crimea in 1970s that they are bringing back. Russia has built own operating system, search engine and office software. they are gradually moving towards independent semiconductor supply chain which can even accelerated if they get experience people from west.
Those buses are designed for Russian conditions from ground up. unless Chinese buses are significantly cheaper, longer life and less manpower intensive in overall maintenance in the condition used we cannot conclude what is more advanced.
they starting with lithium mines. so it is not Germanic method of using batteries without mines.
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similar situation is with high powered 4 engine AWACS. the T/R module will be powerfull
enough that it need special engines and cockpit design for radiation protection.
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Couple of points.

As per New York Times, the cost of electronics can make up 40% of these cost of a car. There can be up to 3000 individual chips.

Yes, Russia can try to move to semiconductor independence as well as in software, but look at how long it is taking China which is also throwing far more resources into this objective.

Also, Russia won't get experienced people from the West to help, because Russia is under war sanctions. Plus those experienced people are generally Korean, Japanese, Taiwanese and Chinese. And China is already offering sky-high wages to them.

Harbin city in Northern China is operating electric buses and has a climate which is significantly worse than Moscow or most other Russian cities. So we can deduce that Chinese electric buses can operate in most of Russia.

Chinese electric buses are also taking over the global market, so we can deduce they are cheaper and/or more efficient.
 
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mossen

mossen

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To add to AndrewS' excellent points, China dominates the battery ecosystem which is the foundation of the EV revolution. That's why companies like BYD are doing so well, they are vertically integrated like few other companies. As far as I know, Russia has nothing comparable to either BYD or pure-play companies like CATL. The story is the same in many other sectors.
 
solarz

solarz

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Overbom said:
Russia is already a junior partner. I don't know why there is even a debate about this.

You don't simple confer to someone the "junior partner" title. Its simply a natural extension of geopolitics, geoeconomics and then the result of comparing the comprehensive national strength of one country with another.
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I disagree with that definition. If we simply do a naive comparison between two partner nations, then there will obviously always be one who's relatively stronger/richer/bigger than the other.

That isn't relevant. What matters is whether both partners have equal say over their interests, or is one always forced to sacrifice it's own interests in order to serve the interest of the other.

So far that we can see, neither China nor Russia is compromising their own interests for the sake of the other. Instead, we are seeing cooperation where there is room, and understanding when potential conflicts of interests arise.
 
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Overbom

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solarz said:
I disagree with that definition. If we simply do a naive comparison between two partner nations, then there will obviously always be one who's relatively stronger/richer/bigger than the other.

That isn't relevant. What matters is whether both partners have equal say over their interests, or is one always forced to sacrifice it's own interests in order to serve the interest of the other.

So far that we can see, neither China nor Russia is compromising their own interests for the sake of the other. Instead, we are seeing cooperation where there is room, and understanding when potential conflicts of interests arise.
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Its not only about comparison of wealth/power but also about "Its simply a natural extension of geopolitics, geoeconomics "

My argument is that Russia is already a junior partner. Now if China is treating Russia as US treats its "allies" is another discussion altogether.

China quite obviously has the necessary power to dramatically influence Russia; that it doesn't do so (as much) is because of wider considerations towards the international strategic environment that China is facing.

At the moment, I would say that Russia is junior partner but China doesn't exploit this (yet). I would bet that if/when China changes the unipolar world order, you would start seeing more things
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Overbom said:
Its not only about comparison of wealth/power but also about "Its simply a natural extension of geopolitics, geoeconomics "

My argument is that Russia is already a junior partner. Now if China is treating Russia as US treats its "allies" is another discussion altogether.

China quite obviously has the necessary power to dramatically influence Russia; that it doesn't do so (as much) is because of wider considerations towards the international strategic environment that China is facing.

At the moment, I would say that Russia is junior partner but China doesn't exploit this (yet). I would bet that if/when China changes the unipolar world order, you would start seeing more things
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Russia is much closer in strength relative to China than most US allies are relative to the US though.

The closest is Japan at 1/3 population and 1/5 GDP, but only 1/10th the air force, 1/5 the navy and a negligible army.

Russia has ~1/10 China's population and GDP (about the level of Canada compared to US). But militarily it has ~1/2 the ground force, ~2/3 the air force, ~1/3 the navy, which is more like the European WW1 allies than anything the US has today.
 
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antiterror13

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FairAndUnbiased said:
Russia is much closer in strength relative to China than most US allies are relative to the US though.

The closest is Japan at 1/3 population and 1/5 GDP, but only 1/10th the air force, 1/5 the navy and a negligible army.

Russia has ~1/10 China's population and GDP (about the level of Canada compared to US). But militarily it has ~1/2 the ground force, ~2/3 the air force, ~1/3 the navy, which is more like the European WW1 allies than anything the US has today.
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There is no way Japanese navy strength is 1/5 USN ..... likely 1/15 or at most 1/12

The same thing as Air force, likely 1/20 or at most 1/15

Also Japanese navy and airforce weapons are mainly from the US, so it is a huge different
 
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