Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Biscuits

Major
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The Taiwanese are open to killing Chinese civilians as in their taunt to target the Three Gorges Dam. No one is going to recognize if China doesn't target civilians. If China declares that it won't target civilians and then civilians are killed, the West will turn it into propaganda so don't bother declaring anything because when the war starts no matter what China isn't to be able make it look like it wants to the world. You think when Taiwanese kill Chinese civilians, the West will scold Taiwan? They won't. There will be no talk of the rule of law when they target and kill civilians. If China were to attack Taiwan China should do what the US did in Iraq and wage a sustained air campaign to destroy all valued targets before attempting to move-in troops if China wants to avoid Russia's mistakes. China should blockade the island not letting anyone in or out. I see Western pundits turning up the propaganda that Taiwanese will fight like Ukrainians. No they won't because like most Asians countries they expect the US to fight their wars for them. They'll be demoralized if all they face are stand-off weapons exploding around them day after day after day...
1 or 2 crazies who are likely IJA nationalists doesn't mean the rebels as a whole intend to attack civilians as a tactic. ROC also lacks the nuclear and precision capability requried to threaten major dams, so the only thing they could attack is the most coastal areas outside Fujian and hope air defence can't intercept them all. Even if they went all out in terror attacks, its likely we're looking at casualties of 100s at most, before all of their rocket units get destroyed.

Rule of law (I think you mean international law?) don't apply to ROC attacking civilians because they're not considered a country, international community only applies rules to nations. Of course, China will give long sentences or execute those who committed terror attacks, as part of its internal policing, but there's nothing stopping ROC from trying to do it, rather, it is the lack of capability.

The way I see it, if armed reunification starts because Beijing initiates it, they will go slower using a blockade and then eventually a decapitation strike when there's a good chance Taipei is ready to surrender. However, if armed reunification starts because of an US invasion, China has no choice but to flatten most of Taiwan Island as fast as possible so the PLA can rapidly take up positions to stop the US attack.

Also just as ROC could attack civilians because they're not bound by international law, Beijing is not bound either because it is not fighting a country. Should an US invasion seem to succeed against all expectations, China legally could and should adopt a scorched earth policy and order all citizens from Taiwan Island to evict occupied areas before demolishing all useful infrastructure there. Even if US wins then, it'll be a hollow victory that merely puts them on a money sink and leaves them with mostly unusable land.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
1 or 2 crazies who are likely IJA nationalists doesn't mean the rebels as a whole intend to attack civilians as a tactic. ROC also lacks the nuclear and precision capability requried to threaten major dams, so the only thing they could attack is the most coastal areas outside Fujian and hope air defence can't intercept them all. Even if they went all out in terror attacks, its likely we're looking at casualties of 100s at most, before all of their rocket units get destroyed.

The way I see it, if armed reunification starts because Beijing initiates it, they will go slower using a blockade and then eventually a decapitation strike when there's a good chance Taipei is ready to surrender. However, if armed reunification starts because of an US invasion, China has no choice but to flatten most of Taiwan Island as fast as possible so the PLA can rapidly take up positions to stop the US attack, Beijing cannot afford not using full scale war tactics due to the threat presented by American troops entering China.

Sorry, Taiwanese are like Hong Kong activists. They look down at Chinese like they're an inferior race not any sort of brethren like how people talk here about not killing Taiwanese civilians.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Whether they can or not is irrelevant. If they could, they would. They would be okay if Americans do it for them.
If US commits war crimes then question becomes from what bases are the war criminals flying from? SKorea? Japan? That country will have their population centers and critical infrastructure bombed unless they evict US troops.

Should all out war break out where US is not just attacking Taiwan but the whole country, then China's move is to call in Russia and NK to provide support, since US would have already called Japan and SK. Then, the war would enter it's first phase as China invades the Korean peninsula with NK support.

In the short term, China can't sustain bombarding the US mainland because of how much the missiles costs, but for the first phase of the war, China could at least launch occasional equivalents to the Doolittle raid, firing conventional HGVs at US west coast industrial areas or even landmarks if US caused civilian deaths. This is made possible due to No First Use policy.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Did anyone in the West scold Australia for their soldiers killing unarmed teenagers? No. Does anyone think the US didn't kill any civilians in Iraq? Does anyone think they didn't commit a war crime by starting an illegal war in Iraq based on lying about WMDs in Iraq? No one talks about that because they control the narrative which is why few speak in those terms. And look at the excuses the West makes to say Putin and Russia committed war crimes. And somehow some think there's a magical arbitrator for the world that will hold the West accountable if they committed war crimes...?

This thread is about lessons learned from Ukraine and somehow thinking declaring China won't kill civilians which will happen just when the US killed Iraqi civilians is a good idea? You're setting up China for an unnecessary trap that China will fail to avoid like someone declaring China was going to shoot down Pelosi's plane then didn't. And the West will use every civilian death as an example of China lying. In most scenarios it will be China that starts the war with Taiwan and somehow people think China declaring it won't kill civilians will make China look good...? If China invades Taiwan, China better own it. Your mistake is romanticizing the Chinese when the way you see Chinese only exists in your head. No one else sees Chinese as you do. That's why when Beijing says out loud that whatever the US is doing hurts the Chinese people's feelings, it doesn't promote sympathy as Beijing thinks it will. Instead people are laughing because it makes the Chinese out be little children being bullied looking for sympathy from the bully.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
I just don't see how Russia can be anything other than a junior partner. The ideal of a multipolar world is not realistic in my view, as China and the United States will continue to dominate military, economic and political matters for the foreseeable future. Also, allowing Russia to have totally independent foreign policy is a liability as their actions could come back to hurt China, especially if they are seen as complicit in enabling them.
Very good points. Russia is probably too proud a nation to be completely subservient to China but their technological sophistication in civilian sectors is very far behind China. Being cut off from Western markets gives them little choice but to rely 100% on China barring a sudden diplomatic reversal vis-a-vis the West (which I find extremely unlikely at this point).
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russia is already a junior partner. I don't know why there is even a debate about this.

You don't simple confer to someone the "junior partner" title. Its simply a natural extension of geopolitics, geoeconomics and then the result of comparing the comprehensive national strength of one country with another.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Very good points. Russia is probably too proud a nation to be completely subservient to China but their technological sophistication in civilian sectors is very far behind China. Being cut off from Western markets gives them little choice but to rely 100% on China barring a sudden diplomatic reversal vis-a-vis the West (which I find extremely unlikely at this point).

Overall, I would judge Russia as technologically behind China in the military realm as well
 
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