"but does not see any indication that China would consider attacking South Korea" sounds more like South Korea has decided to not get involved in the Taiwan business.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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I think this is probably relevant to this thread. As I discussed in the nev thread and here, it's really worth exploring china's ability to enforce an energy embargo on Japan in order to pressure Japan from massively aiding America in any Taiwan scenario.
I already discussed how Japan's lack of nev transformation ensures that they are oil dependent for many years. Now that Russians are essentially cutting Japan off natural gas supplies, it's interesting to look at how much Japan depends on natural gas imports. from what I can find, about 40% of Japanese electricity is generated by natural gas. You will see from the chart that Australia is the largest source of import. Among it's top suppliers, the only source that would not have to pass through Chinese navy is from America. That only represents about 10% of the supply. As such, if china can blockade LNG carriers and oil tankers headed to Japan from south china sea and east of Philippines, then they can effectively choke the Japanese economy.
If we go back to the original point, a pretty important part of a possible conflict is whether or not china can sustained continued aerial and surface control in the area east of Philippines. I would assume this involves them taking Guam land and naval targets out of picture in the opening phases with ballistic and cruise missiles.
Please read through what I wrote. Type 093A are still very noisy for very much the same reasons that Type 093 itself was only slightly less noisy than Type 091. You don't go from 150 db to 110 db without having a lot more space + having several generation more advanced precision machinery. It took multiple generation for US to have that level of signature reduction.
Soryu are the largest conventional subs in the world by pressure hull size. As such, even if the Japanese just have the same technology as everyone else, Soryu would be the quietest subs. Given that JMSDF has focused on submarine warfare for many decades, why would one assume that they are not very advanced technologically. Pretty much every submariner I've talked to consider Soryu class as the quietest or almost quietest sub.
Again, Oyashio class has one of the largest pressure hull. Just based on that alone with late 90s technology would make it still one of the quietest subs.
Song class from what I hear is more comparable to Type 209.
hmm, Philippine sea is between the 2 island chains, so it would definitely be part of China's strategy.
Shilao's podcast also talked extensively about the benefits of being able to land from East side of Taiwan
Again, Philippine sea is between 1st and 2nd island chain. In fact, Yuan submarine was probably designed for deep waters like that. Although, it's still smaller than Japanese subs.
It takes many years to build up a navy. It's a bad idea to wait until war to ramp up your production. Just think about how long it takes to even go from laying down a 054A and putting it into service.
095 is badly needed.
size of submarine makes a huge difference. That's why we have the ACPR50S reactor. That will allow them to build huge subs for 095.
Yes, 039B is a lot larger than Type 212/Scorpene, that's why it might be quieter than them. I don't have data other than to suggest the 636 that China got are quieter than Type 212. I'd assume 039B are fairly quiet due to their size.
Ideally, with the submarine designs they are testing and the advancement they are making in battery/electric motor technology, their next submarine should be very good (on par with the best) if it's large.
pump jet only matters when submarine is going at faster speed. If you don't have enough pressure hull space to fit in noise absorbing material, it doesn't matter what kind of propeller you use.
Really? I repeatedly saw Collins getting mocked as underwater rock bands. Many former sailors say they are very loud too. They have been problematic subs from their inception. They have a good range though.
People have read what you wrote, they just don't agree that quieting is directly proportional to hull diameter. If an extra meter gives a submarine god mode, China would find a way to squeeze in that extra meter.
Apparently you do. This isn't speculation or theorizing or the opinion of (admittedly well-informed) vloggers, it's first hand information from someone who was in a position to know it and should have kept his mouth shut about it. Personally, I'm glad he didn't - others here might feel differently.
The first 09-III started construction in 1994 and the class is still in production today based on that satellite picture; you can imagine how many generations China's precision machinery advanced in more than a quarter century. Besides, it's not as if 110dB is anything to write home about. The kindest thing that can be said about this performance is "mediocre". However, it isn't the caricature made of PLAN SSN acoustics.
Noise is not inversely proportional to diameter. Yes, there's a critical diameter below which noise-dampening equipment can't be installed, but there's no reason to think that you get any acoustic benefit past that diameter. Yes, more space is better for fuel, munitions, crew accommodations, etc., but not quieting the submarine.
Care to elaborate? Are these submariners who've served on it or heard both it and the 039 family? What's their basis for making this claim?
Speed is precisely the SSN's greatest asset. As for hull space, that's the right way to think about it - but once you do have the hull space, more doesn't get you quieter.
Smh you cannot claim to know how silent a submarine is just by looking at size.
So if whoever designed the 041 decided to make it 1m wider than Soryu you'd think it's a generation ahead?
Once you have enough size to fit the quieting equipment you need for the powerplant, you don't need to make the sub bigger. The 041s (and the smaller European submarines) were deliberately designed to be that way, if being slightly wider would make such a huge difference, youd wonder why the Chinese despite having since end of ww2 worked on SSKs didn't realized that. Or for that matter why Germany didn't, despite being arguably the original inventor of SSKs.
Like I wrote earlier the 091 and first 093 didn't have anechoic tiles and probably didn't have any internal quieting either, they were pretty much tech demos for the reactor. 093s are about as big as LA class, but when you don't put on anechoic tiles on them of course they will be loud as heck, you could make them as large as a typhoon sub and they would still suck. There's nothing that suggests subs like 093G or 212 are too small to fit the quieting equipment they need, in fact, saying that is just suggesting gross negligence from the designers.
Even after the 095 is built, the linchpin of Chinese strategy will not greatly change. Only if dozens of such boats can be launched. Otherwise, the SSKs, MPAs and drones remain China's best line of anti sub.
Especially with the military being defunded by the current government at levels so low China would get kicked out of NATO for underspending if they were in there. Budget solutions using new tech sectors is more realistic than solutions focused on mass deployment of expensive platforms.
If China cannot make a satisfactory pump jet, it would be near pointless to have a sub that can't be silent at higher speed, when the 041 can be silent at low speeds already and the 093G can be loud at high speeds.
Today, my read is that for Japan, Korea, Philippines - they still do believe that the US would militarily intervene in a Taiwan scenario.
But in 5 year's time, China's nuclear deterrent will be far larger.
And this will be combined with large improvements to Chinese conventional forces which will make it clear than the US would not win a war (lasting months/years) in the Western Pacific.
At that point, we should see a collapse in confidence from Korea/Japan/Philippines that the US military can provide a security guarantee in the Western Pacific.
Size matters a lot.
You have machines inside a submarine that make a lot of noise and you need to put things around them to absorb the noise. You can lower your signature by having really quiet machines. If your machines are not as quiet, then you need to absorb more noises to let less of them radiate out. The more space you have round your loudest machines, the more you can install to absorb the noises. Think about it this way. If you have really great technology, you might be able to keep a room sound proof with 2m wall of that material. If your technology is not as good, you might need 3m wall to make it sound proof.
btw, it's 039A/B/C.
Keep in mind Soryu class also started later than 039A. So it is at higher technology level and is significantly larger.
cost matters. At a certain size, you are right that additional quieting equipment aren't worth the added cost. However, Chinese subs are definitely not at that size.
If you wonder why 093 aren't larger, you should think about China's reactor technology from when it was designed. Again, I don't keep mentioning ACPR50S for amusement.
093 is double hull. It's pressure hull size is significantly smaller than LA class. You may want to take a look at how large the Russian SSNs have gotten in order to lower noise level.
Similarly, you may also have noticed that the Russians keep producing 636s even though Lada class is supposedly a generation ahead. Guess what, the large ocean going sub from the 80s is quieter when you put the latest machineries and quieting technology in there
Remember, Virginia class came later, but the earliest batch were quieter than Seawolf, because the latter was a lot larger.
What?????
How are SSKs and MPAs getting more than 1500 km off the mainland?
You may want to revise up the number of 095s. 093 series have never really been mass produced by Chinese standard. That's probably why you haven't realized how many SSNs they need.
you don't need pump jet for diesel subs. For SSNs, you probably do need pump jet, but you need a really good reactor, since pump jet actually does hurt your efficiency IIRC. That's why they got ACPR50S. Plenty of juice there.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
I didn't realize Ukraine had nuclear subs or conventional subs in the Pacific ocean.... @Blitzo @siegecrossbow can someone move the last 4 pages or so?
solarz
Brigadier
Exactly. As long as the US doesn't directly fight China over Taiwan, they can still keep their SK and Japanese vassals. If they fight China and lose, then they'll be kicked out of Western Pacific altogether.
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