Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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The expectation that US will fight China over Taiwan is likely making it harder for US to recruit new military allies from China's neighbors. NATO requires new members to be free of any territorial disputes for good reason. US is in practice having a territorial dispute with China.
Which is exactly why I want the Taiwan issue to remain unresolved for a generation. I want the US pinned in this dilemma until China builds up enough strength to destroy its Pacific presence entirely. Conversely, if the US concedes Taiwan then I fear China might just be satisfied with that and accept the US's presence in its near abroad. I would consider that a tragic outcome.
solarz
Brigadier
As Sun Tzu said, winning without fighting is the greatest victory. The US giving up on Taiwan is the best and most reasonable course of action for all involved.
China is not in a great hurry to depose the rebel government, since its not like they're actively attacking civilians or causing damage at the moment.
But China may have a more urgent need to use part of Taiwan soil as a bulwark against 3rd party military expansion in Asia.
DF26s, early warning radar, HQ-19s, airbases etc. stationed on the east coast of Taiwan can successfully deter Japanese and American military adventurism. It extends the highest lethality kill zone from the area around the 1st island chain to deep into the 2nd island chain, which would have otherwise been contested waters in the event of a war in Asia.
Together with basing in the SCS, Japan can be completely blockaded from its western side where almost all trade comes from.
I think the key thing is to make the US understand how serious China regards Taiwan.
So here is my take on the Chinese perspective.
Taiwan is a leftover from an unfinished Chinese Civil War where the losing side fled to Taiwan over 70 years ago. If we look to US history as a guide, did we see the United States of America allow the Confederate States to secede during the American Civil War?
In any case, for over 70 years, every child in China has been taught that Taiwan is part of China. This includes Xi Jinping, along with the rest of the government and the general population. That's 1.4 billion people who believe Taiwan needs to be reincorporated. Even if some people disagree with this, how could you change the prevailing narrative for 1.4 billion people inside China?
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And then you have the practical arguments. Economically, a Taiwan which is hostile to China could deny key semiconductor exports to China. But if the Taiwan semiconductor industry was under Chinese control, China would be able to secure this supply and control semiconductor exports to the USA. Remember that over 50% of all global semiconductors go through Chinese factories. The addition of Taiwan would likely be a net positive to the overall Chinese economy. It would also likely be a net positive for the Taiwanese economy, given the additional opportunities opened up by closer relations with China.
On the military side, a hostile Taiwan which hosts US military forces would pose a military threat to mainland China and serve as part of a Chia containment strategy. When Cuba hosted Soviet military forces, look at how the US was willing to invade Cuba and cause the Cuban missile crisis, which threatened to cause nuclear Armageddon with the USSR.
On the flip-side, a Taiwan under Chinese control would allow China to focus on building a blue-water navy to protect its global trading interests. After all, China is already the world's largest trading nation and also sits at the centre of the Asian trading system.
For all these reasons, China is deadly serious in its resolve over Taiwan.
But the definition of Chinese control of Taiwan has lots of flexibility. And the status-quo has existed for over 70 years now. Given the risks and the high costs associated with any Taiwan invasion, the status quo actually looks pretty good.
In addition, the economic and military balances will likely move significantly in China's favour in the next 2 decades, so why not continue waiting till China has amassed even more economic and military power? And by 2050, the current generation of Chinese political leaders forged during the harsh times of the Cultural Revolution will be replaced by a softer generation of 1980s boomers and then an even softer millennial generation from the 2000s.
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So for foreign politicians or diplomats that have to deal with China, I think they do need to understand and accept that the Chinese believe their narrative about Taiwan is right. There are no excuses on this as it is a professional requirement of the job.
Otherwise we will have demonstrations of incompetence which may lead to a war. I'm reminded of how Pompeo wanted to fly in an official diplomatic delegation to Taiwan in the final days of the Trump Presidency. The Chinese responded by saying they would send in the Chinese Air Force to stop the delegation's plane from landing, and it took far too long for the US to get the message.
And if we look to the Ukraine as an example, starting in November 2021, Russia started mobilising large numbers of troops on the borders of Ukraine, some 4 months before they actually crossed into Ukraine. Yet throughout this period, Zelensky continued to poke the Russian bear and also declare that Ukraine would join NATO, instead of recognising how serious Putin was about the situation. There's a lesson here in electing a television comedian as President and who doesn't have the experience to recognise the risky path he has chosen. It reminds me of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian.
A competent Ukrainian President would have at least toned down the rhetoric and self-righteousness, and recognised reality over *wishful thinking*. It would have been a more moderate path like we see with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Instead, we've seen President Zelensky thinking Ukraine was invincible and deliberately decide to bait Russia.
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This leads onto another piece of wishful thinking - in that the US holds a commanding lead and position of strength over China.
For over 2 years, Blinken has kept repeating that American will engage China from a position of strength.
Just last month (June 2002), we've seen the exact same words being fed into Joe Biden's speeches.
But the reality is that the US and China are now roughly equal.
For example, the Pentagon says that the US would decisively lose in any war against China in the Western Pacific, at least in the short term. In terms of the economy, China is somewhat smaller in exchange rate terms or somewhat larger in terms of actual output when measured using PPP. The National Science Foundation has also reported to Congress that China spends more on technology research and development than the US does.
Furthermore, both the economic and military balances continue to move in China's favour every year. At the same time, China has a decisive lead in areas concerning the oncoming Third Industrial Revolution (Solar, Wind, Nuclear, Batteries, Electric transport, 5G) that will reshape how our societies are organised and managed. And given the likelihood of China retaining its commanding position in the Third Industrial Revolution, the odds are that China will become high-income nation. A China which has caught up to US income levels would have an economy 4x larger than the US because China has 4x the population. Even if China falters, it is easy to see China with an economy twice the size of the US.
So at best, the US can only speak from a position of equality today, not superiority.
Any rational observer outside of the US can see this.
But the idea of American Exceptionalism is so ingrained into the political class in the USA and difficult to let go
For example, Trump is currently the front-runner in the next US Presidential election and is like to win again. Can you ever imagine him acknowledging that the USA is Number 2? He's going to run smack into reality that he won't be able to adapt to.
I think the overall takeaway is that China expects the outside world to change to suit China, rather than the other way around.
Well written! 20 years ago the US would absolutely demolish China in a first Island chain slug fest, right now China can fight on equal footing, but lose the long term economic war. In 20 years time China will be powerful enough for the US to have no choice but to pullback past the second island chain unless they want to lose militarily and economically. The best path forward is for China to grow another 20 years and keep the fighting limited to saber rattling until unification becomes an inevitability, not a war to be fought over.
Nope, we can't know if China would or would not lose the long term economic war.
What's more, it's more likely that China would dominate the US within the first island chain, and more like a bit of a weak footing within the 2nd island chain (say 40/60).
Broccoli
Senior Member
It will make it easier as nobody knows if PRC begins demanding land and ocean areas from them after Taiwan and there is zero guarantees that wouldn't happen. Asian NATO would benefit smaller countries but not PRC and that's why PRC official are protesting loudly against such ideas... same as Russians do against NATO since it makes inpossible for them to invade/pressure their smaller neighbors.
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