Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Broccoli · Jul 14, 2022

Michaelsinodef said:
Nope, we can't know if China would or would not lose the long term economic war.

What's more, it's more likely that China would dominate the US within the first island chain, and more like a bit of a weak footing within the 2nd island chain (say 40/60).

USN doesn't need to enter anywhere near mainland as China relies on shipping for it's survival and those cargo ships can be seized or sunk outside any island chains. What is PLAN gonna do... sit inside those chains while vital cargo is being taken away from them?

This kinda tactics work perfect against China and it forces PLAN to move outside safe zones.

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ZeEa5KPul · Jul 14, 2022

Broccoli said:
It will make it easier as nobody knows if PRC begins demanding land and ocean areas from them after Taiwan and there is zero guarantees that wouldn't happen. Asian NATO would benefit smaller countries but not PRC and that's why PRC official are protesting loudly against such ideas... same as Russians do against NATO since it makes inpossible for them to invade/pressure their smaller neighbors.

No.

Biscuits · Jul 14, 2022

Broccoli said:
USN doesn't need to enter anywhere near mainland as China relies on shipping for it's survival and those cargo ships can be seized or sunk outside any island chains. What is PLAN gonna do... sit inside those chains while vital cargo is being taken away from them?

This kinda tactics work perfect against China and it forces PLAN to move outside safe zones.

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China can easily *survive* without long range shipping, the key word being survive, they would not thrive, some rationing on fuel would be needed and the civilian economy would halt.

The longer the war goes on, the more industries can be retooled for military use.

So yes, China can in fact just sit there if US loses at the 2nd island chain, since USA claims such as Japan, Okinawa, Korea are all in the 2nd island chain.

US can stay in the Pacific and west Indian ocean and pirate whatever international shipping they see, meanwhile China will take its time deamericanizing the populations in Japan and Korea and entrenching the PLA's network centric systems all over China's new territories so its impossible to enter Asia and large parts of the Pacific in general.

While this is happening, PLA forces can send smaller groups and submarines to ride out at US raiding task forces, take long range potshots at CVNs using sea/air launched IRBM. Effectively putting US at the dilemna of risking losses of whole carriers if they stand their ground which is required for a continued blockade, while it does not cost much for China to lob IRBMs at them from outside ranges they can shoot back.

Godzilla · Jul 14, 2022

Broccoli said:
USN doesn't need to enter anywhere near mainland as China relies on shipping for it's survival and those cargo ships can be seized or sunk outside any island chains. What is PLAN gonna do... sit inside those chains while vital cargo is being taken away from them?

This kinda tactics work perfect against China and it forces PLAN to move outside safe zones.

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I have a question.
It is all fine for the USN to do this, but what happens to Japan and South Korea in this scenario. Panama canal isn't getting any less busy, and their economy, energy and food security minus China isn't exactly healthy either.

tankphobia · Jul 14, 2022

Biscuits said:
China can easily *survive* without long range shipping, the key word being survive, they would not thrive, some rationing on fuel would be needed and the civilian economy would halt.

The longer the war goes on, the more industries can be retooled for military use.

So yes, China can in fact just sit there if US loses at the 2nd island chain, since USA claims such as Japan, Okinawa, Korea are all in the 2nd island chain.

US can stay in the Pacific and west Indian ocean and pirate whatever international shipping they see, meanwhile China will take its time deamericanizing the populations in Japan and Korea and entrenching the PLA's network centric systems all over China's new territories so its impossible to enter Asia and large parts of the Pacific in general.

While this is happening, PLA forces can send smaller groups and submarines to ride out at US raiding task forces, take long range potshots at CVNs using sea/air launched IRBM. Effectively putting US at the dilemna of risking losses of whole carriers if they stand their ground which is required for a continued blockade, while it does not cost much for China to lob IRBMs at them from outside ranges they can shoot back.

It's unlikely that China can overcome the allied japan/korean/US navy all at once, at least currently. Since Chinese chip manufacturing is pretty concentrated along coastal cities, the US can destroy those capabilities through long range fire, while China can't do the same to Intel chip fabs located in mainland US. This will degrade Chinese ability to replenish it's stock of PGMs long term while a western world that is united and in a war economy can be a terrifying force to deal with.

Michaelsinodef · Jul 14, 2022

tankphobia said:
It's unlikely that China can overcome the allied japan/korean/US navy all at once, at least currently.

Nope we can't say for sure.

tankphobia said:
Since Chinese chip manufacturing is pretty concentrated along coastal cities, the US can destroy those capabilities through long range fire,

NOPE, lol if the US has the room for ammunition to destroy chinese chip manufacturing ability, then they have basically already won over the PLA, which is unlikely to happen.

Read some of what @Patchwork_Chimera has written both here but also in reddit (hint, the ability/capabilities of US long range fires aren't that strong when put up against the PLA).

tankphobia said:
while China can't do the same to Intel chip fabs located in mainland US. This will degrade Chinese ability to replenish it's stock of PGMs long term while a western world that is united and in a war economy can be a terrifying force to deal with.

LMAO, no, there's quite the difference between commercial semiconductors and military.

The PLA is very much sufficient in getting its own semiconductors.

plawolf · Jul 14, 2022

Broccoli said:
USN doesn't need to enter anywhere near mainland as China relies on shipping for it's survival and those cargo ships can be seized or sunk outside any island chains. What is PLAN gonna do... sit inside those chains while vital cargo is being taken away from them?

This kinda tactics work perfect against China and it forces PLAN to move outside safe zones.

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Yeah, same kind of overflow of wishful thinking energy as economic wars are easy to win, and sanctions will demolish Russia.

Leaving aside the small ‘inconvenient’ facts of how modern globalised shipping actually works and how China is in fact food independent; just from a basic common sense POV, what you are suggesting is the same as some idiot who thinks blockading the giant factory/warehouse that makes and stores the overwhelming majority of the daily supplies he needs for his life to function is him being in a position of strength.

Blockade China and the qualify of life for the average Chinese civilian will drop, but daily life will go on largely as normal before. But for America and Europe and much of the rest of the world, you will have about a month at best before your modern economies and lives start to grind to a halt as you run out of basically everything manufactured. Enjoy substance level living standards. Well, I suppose in the case of America, at least, they manufacture a lot of small arms and ammo, so maybe the timeframe will be a little longer as drastically reducing the population will allow their dwindling supplies to last longer.

tankphobia · Jul 14, 2022

Michaelsinodef said:
Nope we can't say for sure.

NOPE, lol if the US has the room for ammunition to destroy chinese chip manufacturing ability, then they have basically already won over the PLA, which is unlikely to happen.

Read some of what @Patchwork_Chimera has written both here but also in reddit (hint, the ability/capabilities of US long range fires aren't that strong when put up against the PLA).

LMAO, no, there's quite the difference between commercial semiconductors and military.

The PLA is very much sufficient in getting its own semiconductors.

If the Chinese side has access to hypersonics, what makes the US unable to procure them? They've just recently completed 2 successful test so having b-2 launched hypersonics is not out of the question. If hypersonics are at play and they are extremely difficult to intercept, it's not a stretch that the US will priorities hitting critical chip making infrastructure over the long term seeing as those hi-tech factories are extremely fragile. Over the long term they don't need to beat China in the first Island chain, just make it so that China will seriously struggle to push past, which they will through targeting those critical supply chains. They could also technically target nuclear powerplants, but that's a road that leads to MAD, so it's kind pointless to speculate.

We've seen that volume of fire alone is not enough to win wars from the Korean war to Vietnam, so what makes you think that local fire superiority will allow China to completely suppress Korea/Japan war making capabilities? If invading Taiwan required an operation greater than D-day how will China ever manage to stop Japan from lobbing missiles back?

ZeEa5KPul · Jul 14, 2022

tankphobia said:
If the Chinese side has access to hypersonics, what makes the US unable to procure them? They've just recently completed 2 successful test so having b-2 launched hypersonics is not out of the question. If hypersonics are at play and they are extremely difficult to intercept, it's not a stretch that the US will priorities hitting critical chip making infrastructure over the long term seeing as those hi-tech factories are extremely fragile. Over the long term they don't need to beat China in the first Island chain, just make it so that China will seriously struggle to push past, which they will through targeting those critical supply chains. They could also technically target nuclear powerplants, but that's a road that leads to MAD, so it's kind pointless to speculate.

We've seen that volume of fire alone is not enough to win wars from the Korean war to Vietnam, so what makes you think that local fire superiority will allow China to completely suppress Korea/Japan war making capabilities? If invading Taiwan required an operation greater than D-day how will China ever manage to stop Japan from lobbing missiles back?

It's very simple, really. If China loses then

Akame · Jul 14, 2022

China needs to pay more attention to guided munitions

Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Broccoli

Senior Member

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel

Biscuits

Major

Godzilla

Junior Member

tankphobia

Senior Member

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member

plawolf

Lieutenant General

tankphobia

Senior Member

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel

Akame

Junior Member